Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Asshat Foler
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Tredge
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Plausable.
I used existing public AI models to create a market tops and bottoms predictor algorithm in a google spreadsheet.
In testing it nailed every top and bottom over the last 5 years. I applied it in practice on April 8th and hit the bottom perfectly.
Time in the market beats timing of the market - but I am intellectually curious if AI will make it more possible when you have a distinct edge. So far, I'm impressed.
Only a matter of time before the market adapts to these techniques but right now - it feels a little like cheating.
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
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This is the grown up section so I'll try not to be too impolite but what you did was ask AI to use widely available data to create a spreadsheet of past events and then you asked it, apparently on April 8th, to try to predict an unpredictable event because you've convinced yourself the future is pre-determined and coincidence somehow made you forget all logic and reason.
And that's basically the waiting AI bubble in a nutshell.
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Fucker
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Good! I'm not far away from being able to unload this turkey.
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Sanrith Descartes
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If they want to deepen their commitment to "advanced" US tech and chip innovation, why are they investing in INTC?
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fris
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despite their best efforts, intel still sells a ton of chips. amd and qualcomm are increasing market share sure. but any other company in the world that executed like intel wouldn't still be #1 in their space. i can see intel regaining control of the wheel and pushing them out, again. intel did this to amd w/ integrated gpu, cut a ton of amd/ati's low end graphics business. every pc mfg times their refreshes w/ intel procs.
Fucker
Log Wizard
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Tredge
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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This is a fascinating question.
Is the stock market inherently unpredictable or is it so complex as to be practically unpredictable?
The model I am observing unfold is probabilities. There is a level of certainty once the data lines up, but it will never be 100%.
The real question I am testing, is if acting on these probabilities on a long term scale will outweigh simply holding.
I dont think any model can predict change in real time or near real time. But the longer the term the more data exists to determine probabilities.
Furry
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Humans are great at seeing patterns, even if patterns don't exist.
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
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Using AI to help speed up and more accurately curate technical analysis with things like moving averages and resistance/support levels to make informed decisions is a thing and will only get better as AI gets better (but has its own questions on if enough investors, especially institutions, are doing this does it kind of remove the "human psychology" aspect of technical analysis and demolish it over time if new algos/models are created that just ignore it to force different outcomes if dealing with large enough volume)
But what you said was you created a "predictor" using some AI model to identify actual top and bottom movement IN THE FUTURE. There are going to be some people that try to do this without understanding what the AI models they might be trying to leverage even do or how to query/use the data they output.
But what you said was you created a "predictor" using some AI model to identify actual top and bottom movement IN THE FUTURE. There are going to be some people that try to do this without understanding what the AI models they might be trying to leverage even do or how to query/use the data they output.
Asshat Foler
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TJT
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I will point out here that you are in no way the first person to discover any kind of AI cheating. Especially something that could be done with a publicly available AI engine.
The people who live and breathe Wall Street would be so far ahead of the curve on this it would stun you. Take the quant trading and flash boys scenarios. Long before regular Wall Street caught onto to it that shit was going on for over a decade. With shadowy groups straight printing money and nobody being the wiser.
If you read Flash Boys it talks about some guys they met doing this. A braintrust of Soviet PHD expats in the 90s brought the idea to fruition. They had bought two apartments near Wallstreet and shoved a supercomputer in there of some kind. Then began to take advantage of minute differences in timing to win big.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Look at the bid/ask spreads and realize this is how market makers make tens of billions. Off minute amounts they pocket per transaction.
The real wealth is won off of consistent tiny profits multiplied by a very large amount of investment. You also see this with bond traders. They make small profits but do it with huge amounts of invested capital to generate large winnings.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Everybody is looking to AI for signs of what to do with the market but the answer is literally right there for all to see...
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