Synj
Dystopian Dreamer
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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What causes ncidiwn
Wut? End? So they'll start buying more instruments putting more money into the market?
Wut? End? So they'll start buying more instruments putting more money into the market?
Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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The will not start "buying more". They will just stop "buying less".
Its all in the nuance.
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Cad
scientia potentia est
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I mean, I know ha ha, but it’s QT actually selling stuff off the fed balance sheet, while QE is buying stuff off the fed balance sheet? So if they are ending QT, they are stopping selling stuff. Doesn’t mean they are going back to QE, they’re just going to hold steady.
Right?
Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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Yes. Fixed some wording.
Also, consider QE and its predecessor Operation Twist was about buying bonds and in doing so injecting cash into the economy. Bank A has a billion of bonds taken in QE, the it now has a billion in cash to lend out. This is its true original purpose. To unfreeze credit markets. QT, is really about clearing all those shit bonds off the Fed balance sheet. One could say it is also tightening credit markets by sweeping cash out of the banks as they buy the bonds. Also keep in mind bond expiry, this can be a big factor. The idea is to be buying specific bonds that are close to expiry and thus they would mature and leave the Fed balance sheet. Or vice versa depending on what the intent is with cash in or out of the economy.
Operation Twist was more about swapping bonds with different maturities again with the intent of freeing up cash via maturity. Fed swaps out its bonds maturing in 3 months for bonds expiring in 10 years. Banks get the maturing bonds and are then flush with cash to lend to loosen credit markets.
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Cad
scientia potentia est
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Blazin
Creative Title
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My advice to long term investors S&P index investors, look at your portfolio calculate it's value if you used the 200d moving average as the price. That is the number you should think of your investment as being at. The rest is future potential if price stays above. Current price is EZ come ez go , but the market won't give up your 200d price without a battle and it's a better representation of where you stand and can help with not overly responding to day to day prices. The cool benefit of doing this is almost every day is an up day as long as price is above. You could check every day and be like, "cool made more money today" even on days where maybe the current price dropped 1.5%
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Synj
Dystopian Dreamer
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I got divorced in 2020 and that really changed a lot of things for me financially. That year I put a large allocation into FSPTX (tech fund) and FBGRX (growth fund), physical gold and silver and a small stake in NVDA and some other positions. My one miss was not buying BTC at $18k which was on my list but convinced myself to buy AMZN instead (
). Some of those positions did well, some were meh (PFE and DIS 
) and obviously you know what NVDA did. But my number one super power was not selling on the dips. I got rid of some losers but my conviction stocks and positions were conviction and I stayed even when they dipped.2022 was tough, and April’s Trumper Tantrum was another one, but I held. I expect to hold through the next one as well and hopefully we don’t have a lost decade or something stupid like that. Buy low, sell high etc. Everyone is a genius in a bull market.
FSPTX
- 2025 (YTD): 24.85% (as of late October)
- 2024: 35.28%
- 2023: 59.83%
- 2022: -36.91%
- 2021: 21.99%
- 2020: 63.95
FBGRXYear Total Return 2020 62.23% 2021 22.71% 2022 -38.46% 2023 55.60% 2024 39.70% 2025 (YTD) 20.65%
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Cad
scientia potentia est
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To a large extent aside from feeling good, the current price doesn't matter because I can't sell anyway without paying amounts I'm not willing to pay in taxes, so the current price is completely academic. I'm going to be pulling out from my taxable accounts to live for the next 10 years and trying to minimize taxes as much as possible in that time, where it goes between now and then is where it goes, even (especially??) in a major crash scenario I'm not liquidating, so really the current price is just more like "wow maybe I can relax my budget constraints a bit."
Kiroy
Marine Biologist
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funny that talk about record breaking mff, I'm consolidating everything into fidelty (finally finished yay) and just got the last round of about 300k in there all default sitting in spaxx and i'm like man, do I really wanna dump this into the s&p right now. I've told myself i'm a long term s&p'r but damn my jimmies aren't feeling it. think I have another few days until I can re-alocate but man some defensive strategies are looking pretty good. Of course I do that and the s&p triples in the next 18 months because of two companies or some gay shit.
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Cad
scientia potentia est
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If you're waiting for the dip, you might be waiting a while. Thats S&P 500 for the last 100 years.
Cad
scientia potentia est
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Ya, don't want to start a religious debate in here since I know a lot of these dudes froth at the mouth about the Fed, but don't think the great depression would play out the same way today. They basically stuck their fingers in the eye of the economy as the depression started and did everything they could to make it worse, while adhering to the gold standard and allowing the money supply to contract 30%, trade to contract 66%, GDP collapse by 30%, no FDIC to prevent bank runs, etc. The 2008 great recession probably would have played out similarly to the depression had the central banks/governments acted similarly, instead we recovered in a couple of years.
Not saying 1929 can't happen today because it can, but it shouldn't be a slow motion train wreck that drags on for 10+ years it should resolve and get back to business like 2008-2011.
Haus
I am Big Balls!
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Thing I've been pondering....
My grandfather raised me always believing in having a cash pool accessible. In his world, being post-depression era, that meant literally stashed cash. In my world that has been some cash on hand, but mostly cash in easily accessible places like interest earning savings accounts.
But also, in his era the concept of owning stocks, being able to sell them and get the funds in a few days was unheard of unless you were exorbitantly wealthy.
With that in mind I have been debating if I should reposition some of the "cash fund" into the market, but in a way that is still moderately easy to liquidate should I need it. Although also with credit cards as a buffer the speed at which I might need to access it is extended.
So what should the good allocation into "readily accessible liquidity" really be in this day and age? I'm talking well past the common wisdom of 3/6 months expenses as an emergency fund.
My grandfather raised me always believing in having a cash pool accessible. In his world, being post-depression era, that meant literally stashed cash. In my world that has been some cash on hand, but mostly cash in easily accessible places like interest earning savings accounts.
But also, in his era the concept of owning stocks, being able to sell them and get the funds in a few days was unheard of unless you were exorbitantly wealthy.
With that in mind I have been debating if I should reposition some of the "cash fund" into the market, but in a way that is still moderately easy to liquidate should I need it. Although also with credit cards as a buffer the speed at which I might need to access it is extended.
So what should the good allocation into "readily accessible liquidity" really be in this day and age? I'm talking well past the common wisdom of 3/6 months expenses as an emergency fund.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I thought the same a couple weeks ago with my TSP transfer when the market was about 6600.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Maybe we get a 20% correction but not until we go up another 30%. Stranger things have happened.
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