Investing General Discussion

Arden

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If your argument is that the US government is powerful enough to make pretty much any store of value useless if they want to- sure i 💯 agree.

What i meant when i said it was largely beyond the reach of govt manipulation was that it records every transaction on an immutable public ledger that cannot be altered or censored, and has a hard-coded supply cap of 21 million coins that prevents monetary inflation. This stuff at least makes it *resistant* to tampering, seizure, or debasement. Way, way more resistant than fiat currencies issued by governments.

I'm not saying btc is perfect- nothing is- I'm saying its 1000x better than fiat.
 
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Lambourne

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They're fine with you holding BTC because there's always a paper trail for it. Even if they can't make you give up your keys, if they know you have it, they can tax you over its value and throw the legal system at you if you don't pay up. Monero has been banned from many exchanges because it was actually private.

I asked Grok to predict the next cyclical bear several times over the last year and it's been fairly consistent in saying late 2025/early 2026.
 

Rangoth

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They're fine with you holding BTC because there's always a paper trail for it. Even if they can't make you give up your keys, if they know you have it, they can tax you over its value and throw the legal system at you if you don't pay up. Monero has been banned from many exchanges because it was actually private.

I asked Grok to predict the next cyclical bear several times over the last year and it's been fairly consistent in saying late 2025/early 2026.

Not really with a private cold wallet, but still because of the ledger they can trace every single fraction of a BTC and keep "blacklisting" any wallet that receives money until eventually it's hits a KYC wallet or legit business which gets fined. There is never any way to "wash" it like cash. Theoretically even cash could fall under this rule if they actually tracked serial numbers on bills and had a system to check each serial number during any/all transactions.
 

Flobee

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There is never any way to "wash" it like cash.
Not true, plenty of ways to obfuscate a coins history. I won't go into it here as its pretty far off topic, but coinjoins, Liquid peg-in/peg-outs, fediment or ecash can all be used to obfuscate UTXOs. These things currently just take quite a bit of knowledge and care to use properly but Bitcoin can absolutely be used privately if one doesn't immediately doxx themselves by buying via a KYC exchange. Can use services like hodlhodl or Bisq to get KYC-free Bitcoin.

There is a -lot- of technical details for advanced Bitcoin use that most people have 0 clue about.
 
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Tmac

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Saylor announced another MSTR $15b in stock dilution to buy more BTC. The math just doesn't work on this model unless BTC price never goes down. Investors lose value on every dilution. It's basically the best investment ever as long as BTC only goes up. If it goes sideways (or God forbid down) investors take it in the ass. I keep thinking about writing some puts but then I keep looking at his investment "model" and think... no fucking way.

I can't find evidence of this. Can you provide a link?
 

Tmac

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Based on the conversation in this thread atm, I'd consider BTC a buy opportunity.

Same as when everyone doomer'd INTC and every other time there's blood in the street for a particular stock. If nothing's changed in the conviction, then buy when it's in the gutter.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Sure, the blockchain technically keeps running, but that doesn't matter if people can't actually use it. Value isn't about the abstract idea of decentralization, it's about real-world liquidity. If governments choke off access points, throttle traffic, or just make the on/off-ramps legally or logistically painful, the practical ability to transact collapses. At that point, the "network is still alive!" argument becomes a comfort phrase, not an economic reality.

And it doesn't need to be permanent. A few weeks of severe disruption is enough to nuke confidence and price. Most individuals cannot sit around indefinitely holding an asset they suddenly can't use, while governments can outwait pretty much everyone. So yes, the network would still "exist", but its value would evaporate. The market cares about access, not ideology.
There is an old saying in IT security. The password is only as strong as the pipe wrench hitting the kneecap.

Having your coins in cold storage is only as safe as the amount of pressure the government applies to acquire the key.
 
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Kithani

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Based on the conversation in this thread atm, I'd consider BTC a buy opportunity.

Same as when everyone doomer'd INTC and every other time there's blood in the street for a particular stock. If nothing's changed in the conviction, then buy when it's in the gutter.
I don’t know if I’d classify BTC at 100k as truly “blood in the streets” or “in the gutter” though
 
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Kirun

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If your argument is that the US government is powerful enough to make pretty much any store of value useless if they want to- sure i 💯 agree.

What i meant when i said it was largely beyond the reach of govt manipulation was that it records every transaction on an immutable public ledger that cannot be altered or censored, and has a hard-coded supply cap of 21 million coins that prevents monetary inflation. This stuff at least makes it *resistant* to tampering, seizure, or debasement. Way, way more resistant than fiat currencies issued by governments.

I'm not saying btc is perfect- nothing is- I'm saying its 1000x better than fiat.
You're shifting the goalposts. We're not talking about whether Bitcoin's ledger is immutable, that part is fine. The problem isn't the database, it's the ability to use the asset in the real world.

Store-of-value only matters if: You can access it, you can convert it, and there are buyers when you need to sell.

If governments don't have to "alter the chain" to kill liquidity or crush confidence, then your point about immutability is irrelevant to the core issue. They just have to make it hard to transact, hard to off-ramp, or expensive to legally hold. They don't have to break Bitcoin, they only have to break your ability to use it at scale.

Yes, it's harder to inflate Bitcoin than the dollar. Sure. But the value of Bitcoin isn't determined by the supply cap, it's determined by market demand and market demand can evaporate much faster than supply can inflate.

Bitcoin's "resistance" doesn't matter if: Banks and exchanges are restricted, ISPs throttle or block relay traffic, On/Off ramps require compliance and KYC that freeze accounts, and major institutions are legally barred from participating

At that point you don't have a functional currency, you have a museum piece with a price tag no one is willing or able to pay.

You can say it’s "1000x better than fiat," but fiat is still what the world prices goods, wages, taxes, and debts in. The government doesn't have to out-engineer Bitcoin, it just has to out-wait the holders, and the government has more time, more leverage, and more food.
 
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Arden

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You're shifting the goalposts. We're not talking about whether Bitcoin's ledger is immutable, that part is fine. The problem isn't the database, it's the ability to use the asset in the real world.

Store-of-value only matters if: You can access it, you can convert it, and there are buyers when you need to sell.

If governments don't have to "alter the chain" to kill liquidity or crush confidence, then your point about immutability is irrelevant to the core issue. They just have to make it hard to transact, hard to off-ramp, or expensive to legally hold. They don't have to break Bitcoin, they only have to break your ability to use it at scale.

Yes, it's harder to inflate Bitcoin than the dollar. Sure. But the value of Bitcoin isn't determined by the supply cap, it's determined by market demand and market demand can evaporate much faster than supply can inflate.

Bitcoin's "resistance" doesn't matter if: Banks and exchanges are restricted, ISPs throttle or block relay traffic, On/Off ramps require compliance and KYC that freeze accounts, and major institutions are legally barred from participating

At that point you don't have a functional currency, you have a museum piece with a price tag no one is willing or able to pay.

You can say it’s "1000x better than fiat," but fiat is still what the world prices goods, wages, taxes, and debts in. The government doesn't have to out-engineer Bitcoin, it just has to out-wait the holders, and the government has more time, more leverage, and more food.

Don't want to get into a retarded argument, but fwiw I'm not shifting goal posts.

Look back at what I said- I said BTC was "largely beyond the reach of government manipulation." What I mean is (unlike fiat), BTC is immune to a lot of the fuckery that governments can do with the fiat-based ecosystem we have now because of the reasons I already discussed. I stand by that, and I think it's pretty evident.

I keep saying "hard to manipulate" and you keep translating that as me saying "impossible to stop." I'm not saying you can't suppress BTC to the point that it is de facto useless. You can. What you can't do is easily inflate it, censor payments, use it to manipulate monetary policy, etc. It was specifically built to be a better form of currency than fiat, and it is.

The second part of your argument is that all those wonderful features BTC has are pointless if a powerful bad actor can simply "stop" BTC via various draconian efforts.

My response is that's a silly argument. A bad actor could do that to virtually any asset. It could do it to fiat, gold, anything.
 
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Seananigans

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It probably says something about BTC when the level of argument against it involves theorizing the largest national government in the world putting its entire weight on it, catastrophic demand destruction, acts of God, etc.

We're in an investment thread, has anyone ever argued against something by saying "lol dude your TSLA buy is retarded, the government could shut off the NYSE and criminalize stock trading tomorrow and then what?" I'm betting that's not the usual level of discussion.
 
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Kirun

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Don't want to get into a retarded argument, but fwiw I'm not shifting goal posts.

Look back at what I said- I said BTC was "largely beyond the reach of government manipulation." What I mean is (unlike fiat), BTC is immune to a lot of the fuckery that governments can do with the fiat-based ecosystem we have now because of the reasons I already discussed. I stand by that, and I think it's pretty evident.

I keep saying "hard to manipulate" and you keep translating that as me saying "impossible to stop." I'm not saying you can't suppress BTC to the point that it is de facto useless. You can. What you can't do is easily inflate it, censor payments, use it to manipulate monetary policy, etc. It was specifically built to be a better form of currency than fiat, and it is.

The second part of your argument is that all those wonderful features BTC has are pointless if a powerful bad actor can simply "stop" BTC via various draconian efforts.

My response is that's a silly argument. A bad actor could do that to virtually any asset. It could do it to fiat, gold, anything.
You are shifting the goalposts, just subtly. Your original point was that Bitcoin is "largely beyond the reach of government action," which implies practical resilience, not just theoretical design properties. Now that the usability and accessibility angle has been challenged, you're retreating to "well, the ledger is still immutable and the supply is fixed." Sure, but that was never the part in dispute.

Yes, the chain can't be inflated, and yes, it's harder to tamper with than fiat. Nobody's arguing otherwise. The point is that none of that matters if governments can make it economically impractical to transact or convert. A currency that's technically alive but functionally unusable is not a superior form of money in any meaningful real-world sense.

Saying "but governments can suppress anything, even gold or fiat" is not the strong counterpoint you think it is, it actually concedes mine. If the ability to use the asset depends on the tolerance of the state, then the supposed independence of Bitcoin is conditional, not inherent.

Gold works because it has thousands of years of embedded economic visibility, infrastructure, and legal precedents. Fiat works because governments enforce its use. Bitcoin's entire value proposition is supposed to be that it doesn't rely on those conditions.

So if your fallback position is: "Well, governments could render Bitcoin de facto useless if they want to." Then you've already admitted to its core weakness: Bitcoin is only "beyond the reach of the state" until the state actually decides to reach.

That's the contradiction in your argument. My interpretation from your post (and other crypto bros') is that you're selling Bitcoin as sovereign-resistant money while acknowledging that sovereigns can shut down its practical usability.
It probably says something about BTC when the level of argument against it involves theorizing the largest national government in the world putting its entire weight on it, catastrophic demand destruction, acts of God, etc.

We're in an investment thread, has anyone ever argued against something by saying "lol dude your TSLA buy is retarded, the government could shut off the NYSE and criminalize stock trading tomorrow and then what?" I'm betting that's not the usual level of discussion.
No, it says something about BTC that you have to retreat to theoretical design purity instead of practical survivability. When people point out that Bitcoin's value depends on liquidity, accessibility, and legal tolerance, the defense is basically: "Well, they'd have to actually stop people from using it."

Yes, correct. That's the point. Currencies don't live or die on immutability, they live or die on whether people can use them without getting crushed for doing so.

And the Tesla comparison doesn't land. If the NYSE shut down tomorrow, every major government, corporation, pension system, bank, and economic institution in the world would be in a systemic crisis. That's why it's not a realistic scenario, because the system is deeply integrated into the rest of the economy.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, isn't integrated. It has no sovereign backing, no legal mandate, and no obligation from anyone to accept it. That's why a government crackdown is relevant: because the government doesn't need to destroy the global economy to disrupt Bitcoin, just the on/off ramps and the pipes.

The fact the argument keeps circling back to: "Well they’d really have to go hard to break it!"

Instead of: "Here’s why it remains usable even under pressure,"…is telling.

If the only time Bitcoin's advantages matter is in a hypothetical world where the most powerful institutions on earth politely choose not to interfere, then the sovereignty-resistance pitch is just marketing bullshit, not reality. Bitcoin doesn't need acts of God or total state collapse to fail. It just needs loss of liquidity and legal friction.
 
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Arden

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It probably says something about BTC when the level of argument against it involves theorizing the largest national government in the world putting its entire weight on it, catastrophic demand destruction, acts of God, etc.

We're in an investment thread, has anyone ever argued against something by saying "lol dude your TSLA buy is retarded, the government could shut off the NYSE and criminalize stock trading tomorrow and then what?" I'm betting that's not the usual level of discussion.

The whole "but what if the government bans it" argument has been around forever, so it's not surprising to see it, but if you're paying even a little bit of attention to the news it has never been less relevant
 
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Arden

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You are shifting the goalposts, just subtly. Your original point was that Bitcoin is "largely beyond the reach of government action,"

Going to stop you right there. That's not my quote and that's not what I mean. Go back and look again. Stop changing the words in my quote lol. Dick move.

Here you go, my original quote: "Because bitcoin is decentralized, it is largely beyond the reach of government manipulation."

See the difference? Someone is subtly moving the goalposts, but it's not me lol.
 
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Kirun

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Not saying a government couldn't disrupt btc price action or prevent certain people from accessing their btc, but the likelihood of them being able to take any action beyond something temporary and localized is pretty low.
This is what you originally said that caused me to respond originally...

That is literally the claim I’m addressing. You framed government interference as temporary and localized, which implies Bitcoin is functionally resilient to sustained pressure, not just that the ledger is inflation-resistant.

If what you meant was only: "The protocol itself can't be inflated or edited," Then sure, that's true. But that's not what the sentence above communicates. Your original point wasn't about protocol integrity, it was about real-world durability against state-level coercion.

I'm not changing your words. I'm keeping the meaning you posted before you tried to narrow it.

If your actual position now is: "Yes, governments can make Bitcoin unusable at scale, but they can't rewrite the ledger," then we're in agreement and that means the whole "beyond government reach" framing was overstated.

Because a currency that can't be inflated but can be rendered economically unusable isn't "sovereign-resistant", it's conditional.

That's the entire point I've been making.
 

Arden

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Ok so it sounds like our real argument is:

I think BTC is sovereign resistant but not sovereign immune, and that it doesn't need to be immune to be a better currency than fiat.

You think it's not sovereign resistant, and therefore it's not better than fiat.

Fair?
 
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Flobee

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Curious how a government can force Bitcoin to be unusable? If you have Bitcoin, and I have beef and we want to trade that beef for Bitcoin... That's very hard to stop. Sure you can make arguments that they can make it illegal, 6102, etc... but you're failing to think about enforcement. How would they enforce that? Are they going to spend the resources raiding every home of a KYC'd holder and give em the ole wrench? Sure they can stop individuals but it's just not feasible at scale and they know it.

I think you're all giving the government too much credit regarding it's capabilities. Yes it's theoretically possible that it could be enforced, but multiple governments have tried and failed already.

Stepping away from that old argument for a moment let's consider incentives. How many of those in power hold BTC? Assuming that's not 0 (it's not) how could they personally most benefit? Attacking Bitcoin relentlessly or pointing the printing canon at it and smashing the buy button after they and their friends have loaded up?

Who has bought the ~$43 billion in Bitcoin sold by long term holders in the past month alone? There has to be an answer because we're still above $100k. If you're still thinking that the government is going to BAN this then you're so far behind the curve here you should probably read more and talk less on the topic. Go take a look at the legislation in motion right now surrounding this. Go read up on the genius act and give a nice long think about the relationship between stablecoins, Bitcoin, and US treasuries.

Government has 0 incentive to stop this. Co-opt it? Sure they're going to try, will have to see how that plays out. Not your keys not your coins folks
 

Fogel

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