Investing General Discussion
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Kithani
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Kirun
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Not quite. You're still simplifying the positions in a way that obscures the real issue.
I'm not saying Bitcoin has zero sovereign resistance. I'm saying its sovereign resistance only holds under conditions where the state is indifferent. The moment a government actually exerts pressure, Bitcoin's usability, liquidity, and convertibility can be restricted without touching the protocol.
So the real disagreement is this: You're defining "sovereign resistant" at the protocol level (immutability, capped supply, censorship resistance in theory).
I'm defining "sovereign resistant" at the economic-use level (can people actually transact, convert, and use it at scale under state pressure).
Those are not the same thing.
Bitcoin being "better money" in a theoretical design sense does not automatically translate to it being superior as a functioning currency in real-world conditions where governments control/regulate markets.
So the actual divide is:
You: If the ledger and supply are intact, Bitcoin remains superior even under pressure.
Me: If the ability to use it collapses, the ledger being intact is irrelevant to its economic value.
That's the core point and that's why "resistant vs. immune" isn't the right framing. The question is whether Bitcoin's practical utility survives state-level opposition. And that is where its weakness shows.
You're describing peer-to-peer barter, not an economy.
Sure, if you have beef and I have BTC, and we meet in person and trust each other, we can trade. That's not the question. The question is whether Bitcoin remains usable at scale - for businesses, payroll, imports, taxes, contracts, debt payments, lending, settlement, and large-volume commerce.
A functioning currency has to work at scale - for payroll, businesses, taxes, contracts, imports, etc. The moment you move beyond "guy with beef trades guy with BTC," you run into chokepoints.
The government doesn't need to raid homes or break the protocol. They just do things like: Require KYC on exchanges and wallets, restrict banks and businesses from touching BTC, require tax reporting on every transfer, deny convertibility to fiat, regulate stablecoin issuers, pressure ISPs/infrastructure.
Once institutions and payment rails back away, liquidity dies. The chain can run forever, but that doesn't mean it's useful.
Look at China. Bitcoin still "exists" there. But retail usage and on/off ramps collapsed overnight. That's the difference between the protocol surviving and it remaining functional as money.
On the "incentives" point - governments aren't hedge funds. They don't maximize profit, they maximize control over the monetary base. They don't need to "ban" BTC to neutralize it. They just wrap it in compliance until it behaves like any other regulated asset.
And that's the actual outcome we're heading toward: Not a ban, a co-option. KYC'd custodial wallets, stablecoins pegged to Treasuries, and Institutional control of rails.
At that point, BTC isn't "sovereign-resistant money." It's a speculative asset inside the fiat system. And if that's the case, the whole "this frees us from government monetary power" narrative collapses.
So the disagreement isn't whether one guy can trade beef for Bitcoin. The disagreement is whether Bitcoin survives as money if the state decides it doesn't want competition. That's where the weakness is and that's the part crypto bros never seem able to address - they just return to the same marketing soundbites about "sovereign resistant, decentralization, etc.".
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Arden
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Going to say this one last thing. Happy to continue the conversation after this, but i think we should move it to the crypto thread:
The idea that “Bitcoin can be restricted by governments” is true, but it’s even more true of fiat, because fiat doesn’t exist without government permission in the first place. Every dollar is issued by the state, every transfer runs through state-regulated banks, every balance can be frozen, seized, reversed, inflated, or devalued at will. Fiat is sovereign-dependent. Bitcoin is sovereign-resistant. Even in a crackdown, Bitcoin still functions as a peer-to-peer bearer asset outside state rails: you can self-custody it, transfer it without banks, and store it without permission. Fiat has no parallel mode of operation outside government control. So the “government interference” critique doesn’t show Bitcoin is weak, it shows Bitcoin gives you an option that fiat never has.
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Looking for a short term play for government re-opening. Thinking maybe UNH with its recent 10% drop.
Rangoth
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You can probably do that on anything. Almost all of my individual picks have gone down ~10% or more in the last 2 weeks or so. Even BTC keeps bouncing off 100k and I highly doubt it's out for the count, so even that would be be a good 15-20% gain when it heads back up to 125k where it had resistance.
Here is a pick I have a small(5k) position in that I keep being on the fence about when/if to go in larger. It's one of those speculative companies that could really hit it off and seems to be doing the right things.
Anyway, point for this particular topic is the options open interest. A 34:1 c-p ratio! I'm sure others are similar but this ones keeps that momentum day after day. I think everyone is ready for a major bounce back. The timing on the OI is all over the place so it does show some skepticism about when this could finally turn or the market in general.
My only point is the beatings are generally market-wide save energy/utilities/materials from a quick glance at a full map. Like all downtrends they never last forever and these days swings back up tend to be quick and fierce.
Here is a pick I have a small(5k) position in that I keep being on the fence about when/if to go in larger. It's one of those speculative companies that could really hit it off and seems to be doing the right things.
Anyway, point for this particular topic is the options open interest. A 34:1 c-p ratio! I'm sure others are similar but this ones keeps that momentum day after day. I think everyone is ready for a major bounce back. The timing on the OI is all over the place so it does show some skepticism about when this could finally turn or the market in general.
My only point is the beatings are generally market-wide save energy/utilities/materials from a quick glance at a full map. Like all downtrends they never last forever and these days swings back up tend to be quick and fierce.
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Synj
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I used to not check my funds all the time, and when there was a big dip I’d just shrug it off. For some reason I’ve been struggling to not look every day and it’s really stressing me out. I feel like I have a solid portfolio, aggressive but not dumb and I just need to put my head in the sand for a bit and let this shit just be volatile without my knowledge
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Rangoth
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If you are not a regularly active trader but want to be aware of these type of events to take advantage of opportunities or otherwise just be aware I would go back to not looking to avoid the stress and maybe setting some price alerts.
Say for instance you keep money on the sidelines, to buy "significant" dips. You should be able to setup a trailing $ or % alert and then follow it with a trailing $/% buy order. It won't time the bottom perfectly and depending on the spread you may not even be able to set one that has room, but it will be better than a total guess at when things will shift.
Nothing is perfect and an upspike could cause the order to hit only for things to drop another 20% or whatever, but it's a less panic mode of settings things and again depending on the symbol you could do well with an approach like that and keep emotion out of it.
Say for instance you keep money on the sidelines, to buy "significant" dips. You should be able to setup a trailing $ or % alert and then follow it with a trailing $/% buy order. It won't time the bottom perfectly and depending on the spread you may not even be able to set one that has room, but it will be better than a total guess at when things will shift.
Nothing is perfect and an upspike could cause the order to hit only for things to drop another 20% or whatever, but it's a less panic mode of settings things and again depending on the symbol you could do well with an approach like that and keep emotion out of it.
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Gravel
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I hate to say it, especially because I feel like most people invest too conservatively, but if it's stressing you out that much it may be a sign that you're invested too aggressively.
Have you considered taking up a position in a non-equity asset?
Have you considered taking up a position in a non-equity asset?
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Synj
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I’m not that aggressive. I’m like 50% VOO and then a decently large position in NVDA, the rest in growth and tech ETFs but I’ve ridden this train before and don’t plan on retiring for another 10-15 years (I actually love my job). I’m not in any leveraged ETFs or any large positions that wouldnt
I’ve also got a large holding in gold and silver and BTC and zero debt outside my house.
I’ve just been more closely watching the market in the last year and the last few weeks are less fun when the whole market takes a dump. But where would I move my money? SCHD/BNDS/Cash? Fuck that. I’m good, just noticing that it’s better when I don’t look every day. Being too “invested” in the day to day and week to week swings makes it harder to just chill.
Also, thanks for looking out bro.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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If you're not looking to retire for 10+ years the events of this year will just be a blip in the graph the same way 2008 and 2020 are now blips in the graph
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Synj
Dystopian Dreamer
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I know and thank you. I just didn’t watch as closely before.
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Furry
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I don't even find myself tempted to look at the numbers often anymore. For my non-automatic accounts, money goes into account, I put it in stocks and then I close it for 6 months.
On a bad day I definitely go down 10s of thousands now adays, but its just not worth sweating over. Money go down, money will go back up. If I end up seeing the stock numbers I try to guess at what my portfolio is, but I almost never actually look, that's just opening the door to deciding to change something.
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Synj
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This exactly. As the numbers have gotten bigger, it’s like, did I just lose a car today?
And yes, makes me fidgety. It’s a pretty great problem to have but I’m gonna close the app for a bit.