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Blazin

Blazin

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I've been right about MSTR this is another shit deal for the common holder. Saylor hates the common holders and every move he makes hurts them and now he has locked himself into a situation all he can do is keep doing it. I'd be careful even at a Mnav of one that mnav is carrying more and more weight. There are probably arbitrage opportunities with these preferred but it's all too messy for me to want to touch.

Everyone can handle their own risk here, I just think it warrants a warning for what it's worth. He must continue to dilute at least make sure you research and understand that if taking a stab at MSTR
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Just bought a little Meta just a nibble want to see what it does here at $600.

Anytime a big tech company goes into the disliked bin usually worth it to accumulate and just wait for it to be the hotness again.
 
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Tmac

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Blazin said:


I've been right about MSTR this is another shit deal for the common holder. Saylor hates the common holders and every move he makes hurts them and now he has locked himself into a situation all he can do is keep doing it. I'd be careful even at a Mnav of one that mnav is carrying more and more weight. There are probably arbitrage opportunities with these preferred but it's all too messy for me to want to touch.

Everyone can handle their own risk here, I just think it warrants a warning for what it's worth. He must continue to dilute at least make sure you research and understand that if taking a stab at MSTR
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Any advice?

1762537184477.png


I sold @ 518 and bought back in at this cost basis, so just about lost all my gainz.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tmac said:
Any advice?

View attachment 608423

I sold @ 518 and bought back in at this cost basis, so just about lost all my gainz.
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Tough spot, its not that it can't go up. It will respond to any move up in BTC but I don't think it's going to gain ground on BTC if he keeps hitting the ATM.

He likes to take risks and he will do unconventional things, will he hit on something that puts premium back into the common? I'm not a believer but that's a decision for you to make. Clearly his current actions are removing premium, if you believe he will change tactics in a beneficial way then be patient, otherwise swap for bitcoin.
 
Tmac

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Blazin said:
Tough spot, its not that it can't go up. It will respond to any move up in BTC but I don't think it's going to gain ground on BTC if he keeps hitting the ATM.

He likes to take risks and he will do unconventional things, will he hit on something that puts premium back into the common? I'm not a believer but that's a decision for you to make. Clearly his current actions are removing premium, if you believe he will change tactics in a beneficial way then be patient, otherwise swap for bitcoin.
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The time perspective for MSTR holders is allegedly 5-6 years. Is it reasonable to just hold my position with that time horizon in mind and just pour new money elsewhere?

I think Saylor keeps hitting the ATM to continue to accrue BTC.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Tmac said:
The time perspective for MSTR holders is allegedly 5-6 years. Is it reasonable to just hold my position with that time horizon in mind and just pour new money elsewhere?

I think Saylor keeps hitting the ATM to continue to accrue BTC.
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If he wasn't constantly diluting the shares then a long term hold would be reasonable. Every dilution costs you stock price.
 
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Tmac

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Blazin said:
Could just say: Saylor and analyst disagree on price of BTC at year end. There are no sales! This freaking guy. Annoys me that they allow this type of charlatan shit . He knows the rules weren't written thinking of a company doing what he is doing. It's clearly deceptive. We have a very crypto friendly administration which is fine but my issues with this has nothing to do with crypto but with him inventing new definitions for established financial terms that investors use to make decisions. Just using the word Yield as he does should result in a big fat bitch slap of a fine.
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Yield in regards to dividends? Can you explain how it’s deceptive?
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tmac said:
The time perspective for MSTR holders is allegedly 5-6 years. Is it reasonable to just hold my position with that time horizon in mind and just pour new money elsewhere?

I think Saylor keeps hitting the ATM to continue to accrue BTC.
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If he ever stops leveraging mnav will move to 1, there is no reason for a premium if he isn't leveraging the coin. He now has to do some amount of dilution to pay dividends. He has no sales, the BTC generates nothing so he can't make those preferred dividend payments without dilution. That's not an opinion that is how it works. The only way former investors are paid are from the money of new investors.
 
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Blazin

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Tmac said:
Yield in regards to dividends? Can you explain how it’s deceptive?
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No his use of "Bitcoin Yield" There is no such thing, its deceptive language since it in no way pays a dividend as an investor would take that language to mean. It's a term he made up, and he is fine to make up stuff, but he should not do so with a word like yield which has a clear and understood definition.
 
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Falstaff

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Blazin said:
If he ever stops leveraging mnav will move to 1, there is no reason for a premium if he isn't leveraging the coin. He now has to do some amount of dilution to pay dividends. He has no sales, the BTC generates nothing so he can't make those preferred dividend payments without dilution. That's not an opinion that is how it works. The only way former investors are paid are from the money of new investors.
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I wonder where I heard of this before...

1762540339067.png


Not trying to be too cute: Charles Ponzi - Wikipedia
 
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Tmac

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Blazin said:
No his use of "Bitcoin Yield" There is no such thing, its deceptive language since it in no way pays a dividend as an investor would take that language to mean. It's a term he made up, and he is fine to make up stuff, but he should not do so with a word like yield which has a clear and understood definition.
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Ah, I see what you mean — but I’ve never understood it as a yield payment. I’ve thought of it as more of a value increase of the underlying bitcoin “backing” the shares.
 
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Fogel

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Figures the market starts puking right after I start writing puts again. For anyone curious I'm currently doing monthly on SOFI at 22-23 and IBIT at 50ish
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tmac said:
Ah, I see what you mean — but I’ve never understood it as a yield payment. I’ve thought of it as more of a value increase of the underlying bitcoin “backing” the shares.
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Well like I said, he should be fined for saying yield. He wants to use a less regulated financial term that would be fine. When you say "Yield" in a financial filling it has an established meaning, would be like saying "Bitcoin Net Income" , oh so you made money after expenses? Uh no it just means I did something cool. BNI is up 80% this year!
 
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Tmac

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Blazin said:
If he ever stops leveraging mnav will move to 1, there is no reason for a premium if he isn't leveraging the coin. He now has to do some amount of dilution to pay dividends. He has no sales, the BTC generates nothing so he can't make those preferred dividend payments without dilution. That's not an opinion that is how it works. The only way former investors are paid are from the money of new investors.
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Yes, if he’s not generating more “BTC per share” there’s no reason for the stock to have a premium. You might as well buy BTC.

And yes, to pay dividends, he must dilute the common, but it’s very little. The common equity holders are in it for the long-run, essentially hoping to gain from the arbitrage of 30% ARR on BTC, while only “paying” out 10% on preferred dividends.

So the common gets the benefit of Preferred IPOs and Preferred ATMs — up front from the BTC purchases. The Preferreds get the benefit dripped over 10 years.

The idea is that the common is backed by levered BTC that is going up faster than the stock is being diluted to pay dividends at 10%.

I’m not arguing, rather curious if this is also your understanding and it still looks rotten to you. I’m not a smart investor by any means.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Blazin said:
No his use of "Bitcoin Yield" There is no such thing, its deceptive language since it in no way pays a dividend as an investor would take that language to mean. It's a term he made up, and he is fine to make up stuff, but he should not do so with a word like yield which has a clear and understood definition.
Click to expand...
Falstaff said:
I wonder where I heard of this before...

View attachment 608430

Not trying to be too cute: Charles Ponzi - Wikipedia
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Hmmmmmm


Tmac Tmac can I interest you in some MSTZ? Looks like it's going to keep gaining if the dilutions keep happening and if BTC holds ~steady here or declines.

Not saying now is the right time to buy, but check it out and DYOR:emoji_thumbsup:
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Got some great fills and was very green today. Two major orders missed, full on sanrith style . I even moved them up wanting that higher low scenario but we never looked back. Hate to end a nice day in frustration but kind of ticked at myself for not just flipping to a market order when they didn't hit, was freaking .20
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Got some great fills and was very green today. Two major orders missed, full on sanrith style . I even moved them up wanting that higher low scenario but we never looked back. Hate to end a nice day in frustration but kind of ticked at myself for not just flipping to a market order when they didn't hit, was freaking .20
Click to expand...
I Got You Heart GIF by Tristen J. Winger
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Still two months to go but my generally feeling is this is going to be my worst year investing outside of 2022 in a while. I have made plays I think make sense and the the market just flips me the bird and does shit that makes no sense. I am da poop.
 
Jysin

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Many of my orders on the nice pullback days, I just hit at market in the price range I am looking for. Filling META today at 607'ish is close enough vs trying to hit some specific limit level. Same with my UNH buy. Close enough to the 100D. I don't need to roll the dice on fill at some specific to the penny fill.

If you really want to stick with your limit orders, you can straddle those major MAs. Put 1/3 of your order just above and 2/3 just below. This way you can get some part of the order working if the stock does the early V, which is often the case for big tickers these days.

One of my big misses was TSLA back in the 2022 slump. I had a $100k order out there for $100.01 and missed by less than 2 bucks. It didnt look back and tripled in just over 6 months time.

If you are looking for big long term hold plays, missing your fill by a buck or two is fairly dumb in the grand scheme of things.
 
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