Investing General Discussion

Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Still two months to go but my generally feeling is this is going to be my worst year investing outside of 2022 in a while. I have made plays I think make sense and the the market just flips me the bird and does shit that makes no sense. I am da poop.
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I'm behind S&P for the year, not happy with the year but its also not over. We get some volatility and I can fix it yet. I under estimated how strong this rally would be and was too cautious, a repeating theme. I'm good at declines, horrible at melt ups, very consistently go further than I think.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
I'm behind S&P for the year, not happy with the year but its also not over. We get some volatility and I can fix it yet. I under estimated how strong this rally would be and was too cautious, a repeating theme. I'm good at declines, horrible at melt ups, very consistently go further than I think.
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I sold out of my biggest positions a month or two ago due to valuations and how I interpreted not just the charts and metrics but overall market movement. Im sitting on like 60% cash right now so missed out on a chunk of this rally. The only way I do better this year is if we get a fall off a cliff drop before the new year and I can put cash to work at good prices. Im not wishing that happening on everyone else though.

And like you, I am very comfortable on declines and not so good on hot runs. My read on them tends to be shit.
 
Cad

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I sold out of my biggest positions a month or two ago due to valuations and how I interpreted not just the charts and metrics but overall market movement. Im sitting on like 60% cash right now so missed out on a chunk of this rally. The only way I do better this year is if we get a fall off a cliff drop before the new year and I can put cash to work at good prices. Im not wishing that happening on everyone else though.

And like you, I am very comfortable on declines and not so good on hot runs. My read on them tends to be shit.
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Incidentally if you cash out to the point that you're 60% in cash, I'm assuming you're holding very little in the LTCG window and basically pay your income in short term capital gains each year? Thats fine, not criticising, just wondering if I'm missing something or thats how active traders end up being taxed.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Cad said:
Incidentally if you cash out to the point that you're 60% in cash, I'm assuming you're holding very little in the LTCG window and basically pay your income in short term capital gains each year? Thats fine, not criticising, just wondering if I'm missing something or thats how active traders end up being taxed.
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Sorry, should have mentioned this is a tax deferred account (my biggest account and the one I actively manage). My taxable accounts tend to be buy and hold because of tax reasons.
 
Rangoth

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Cad said:
Incidentally if you cash out to the point that you're 60% in cash, I'm assuming you're holding very little in the LTCG window and basically pay your income in short term capital gains each year? Thats fine, not criticising, just wondering if I'm missing something or thats how active traders end up being taxed.
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quarterly payments Based on gains at that point in time. I could wait until the end of the year but then I often have to pay fines because I waited. If take a big lhit late in the year I would money back no different than someone who pays more than they should each paycheck on W2 so trying to balance exactly what I owe is a bit of a bitch.
 
Rangoth

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Yall got me doing more analysis on the MSTR play. I was waiting for a drop close to 1mNAV as my thesis was that it would not drop below that because it's a value match. I am going to reverse this play.

The dude keeps issuing preferred shares with dividends and the only way he can pay is to dilute. He also keeps doing any and everything he can to accumulate BTC. I am really not sure what the long term strategy is other than be the single largest BTC holder. I guess he could jump into DeFi type of game where he loans it out at 100%+ collateral like some of those other sites or puts leverage on governments or something? I am genuinely a bit lost on his long term plan, meaning 10+ years

Anyway, I am now considering a PUT play. I'd start small, something in the realm of 10k. The goal would be big, trying to double it. Obviously I'd break out if it's not going well but everything about this shows some big air between current price and a resistance from years ago in the 150$ range. I'll edit the post if I go for it but I am fairly strong on this one. I will probably wait for an "up day" to get a cheaper price and catch more downside.
 
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Blazin

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Total rumor mill but it would be hilarious if true, is that for a big chunk of the bitcoin they hold they have lost the keys for. He now wants to grow the pot as big as possible to soften the hit of "oh by the way we don't have the keys for some of our stack and since we don't believe in selling bitcoin ever the keys are not necessary."
 
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Khane

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Make it even more scarce. Now that's the kind of forward thinking every investor looks for!

You know how people go on treasure hunts for actual gold or like... cocaine and shit? And make dumb documentaries about it? Do you think there are gonna be bitcoin wallet treasure hunter documentaries in the future?
 
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Cad

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Khane said:
Make it even more scarce. Now that's the kind of forward thinking every investor looks for!

You know how people go on treasure hunts for actual gold or like... cocaine and shit? And make dumb documentaries about it? Do you think there are gonna be bitcoin wallet treasure hunter documentaries in the future?
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There are already a lot of stories about people finding wallets from 2011 with 1000 coins in it. I've heard of people scavenging old hard drives and looking for old bitcoin wallets people might have forgotten about.

The value multiplying by 100,000 times does that.
 
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TJT

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Khane said:
Make it even more scarce. Now that's the kind of forward thinking every investor looks for!

You know how people go on treasure hunts for actual gold or like... cocaine and shit? And make dumb documentaries about it? Do you think there are gonna be bitcoin wallet treasure hunter documentaries in the future?
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Yeah it will be an update of Civil War era gold!

I forget the names but in like the 30s-50s a number of novels exist about dudes discovering that a private Civil War era mausoleum lost during the war was filled with the gold of a wealthy family. Before the family got killed and the plantation burned down. The property then fell into whoever's hands but the gold was forgotten about and the mausoleum buried, lost, or whatever. They end up competing with low lifes who catch wind of it too and that's the general premise of these books.

It will be novels like that but instead some relatives find a carefully hidden USB flashdrive, go hunt down antique technology to read it, then realize that its the keys to a bitcoin wallet. Somehow some gangsters or nefarious relatives will get involved.
 
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Khane

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The most interesting thing about bitcoin to me is nobody ever actually holds bitcoin itself anywhere, it just exists on the ledger. You only hold access to it via your keys. Which is entirely hackable. You can create the most incredible encryption algorithms of all time (currently) and someone could potentially break it and just have access to every bitcoin in existence. Its unlikely but its possible which is not something that is possible with physical assets.
 
Furry

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Khane said:
The most interesting thing about bitcoin to me is nobody ever actually holds bitcoin itself anywhere, it just exists on the ledger. You only hold access to it via your keys. Which is entirely hackable. You can create the most incredible encryption algorithms of all time (currently) and someone could potentially break it and just have access to every bitcoin in existence. It’s unlikely but it’s possible which is not something that is possible with physical assets.
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Every computer on earth working for a trillion years would not even come close to a tiny fraction of the computational power to hack one wallet via brute force. Someone winning an on the job loot quest and walking out of the company with the key is much more likely.

A mathematical attack is also unlikely to be discovered this millennia, which would at best reduce the time frame, which would definitely still be well well over a trillion years.

I can’t agree with the term “entirely hackable” in this context.
 
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Khane

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Furry said:
Every computer on earth working for a trillion years would not even come close to a tiny fraction of the computational power to hack one wallet via brute force. Someone winning an on the job loot quest and walking out of the company with the key is much more likely.

A mathematical attack is also unlikely to be discovered this millennia, which would at best reduce the time frame, which would definitely still be well well over a trillion years.

I can’t agree with the term “entirely hackable” in this context.
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Do you understand that people have believed this about every encryption algorithm and methodology ever created? Computational power and human understanding are the key limiting factors and our understanding of technology and capability today means nothing to us 10 years from now. It might even be fucking laughable.

That's kind of the point.

In fact, something that seems like nonsensical magic to us now (quantum computing) would laugh at what you are saying if it ever actually got cracked. So yea. Welcome to being human in the literal sense of how it has always functioned.
 
Furry

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Khane said:
Do you understand that people have believed this about every encryption algorithm and methodology ever created? Computational power and human understanding are the key limiting factors and our understanding of technology and capability today means nothing to us 10 years from now. It might even be fucking laughable.

That's kind of the point.
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Generate your own key without using any digitally seeded method problem solved. If you don’t understand why that solves the problem you don’t understand how these hacks work.
 
Khane

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Furry said:
Generate your own key without using any digitally seeded method problem solved. If you don’t understand why that solves the problem you don’t understand how these hacks work.
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Okay so come up with my own algorithm that is uncrackable? Is that what you are suggesting as problem solved? Im trying to understand why you are arguing that our current understanding of computational limits doesn't mean nothing to our future selves. Because it absolutely means nothing to our future selves.

EDIT: Also I just realized we are in the investing thread, we should probably move this to the bitcoin thread.
 
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Cad

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Khane said:
Okay so come up with my own algorithm that is uncrackable? Is that what you are suggesting as problem solved? Im trying to understand why you are arguing that our current understanding of computational limits doesn't mean nothing to our future selves. Because it absolutely means nothing to our future selves.

EDIT: Also I just realized we are in the investing thread, we should probably move this to the bitcoin thread.
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If there was a real danger to the blockchain they can fork it and make changes. If the old blockchain is actually insecure everyone will move over to the new one. It's a fixable problem, not "easy", but fixable.
 
Khane

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Cad said:
If there was a real danger to the blockchain they can fork it and make changes. If the old blockchain is actually insecure everyone will move over to the new one. It's a fixable problem, not "easy", but fixable.
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This is entirely accurate, with some pretty substantial caveats. What event or string of events could warrant this? What timing in relation to those events would this occur? What percentage of adopters would adhere to this plan? How many different upstarts would try to create their own fork?

Technology is far more adaptable than any tangible rare earth metal. But thats also potentially the biggest weakness.

Bitcoin, in its current state, has a very real shelf life. We dont yet know what the timeframe is, but we will surpass the blockchain from a technical standpoint.

Its a true statement and also not a very meaningful (currently) statement. Right now who cares? Right now and for the foreseeable future it will be valuable
 
Kirun

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Saying brute-force is infeasible is true but irrelevant. Security is a system property - people, software, hardware, legal regimes, and future tech matter far more than the theoretical time to try every key. Calling the system "not entirely hackable" ignores all the ways it is already being/has been hacked.

Crypto is code. Wallet bugs, library flaws, compromised build chains, side-channel attacks, or poor randomness have historically broken security far faster than any theoretical break of the underlying math.
 
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