Investing General Discussion

D

Dalren

Trakanon Raider
71
67
I cleaned up my portfolio today. Might have sold the bottom, who knows. But cleared out the big runners and my turds. Even sold a chunk of my bitcoin. Feels refreshing to have so much cash at once, but i think I'm going to be sitting out on any buys for a bit and see where the market goes. My gut and the overheated charts are screaming at me first half of 2026 might get ugly, hell this Q4 has been ugly and it feels like the entire market is waiting on what Nvidia is about to report next week. I'm probably wrong so i may be a good one to counter trade here, lol.
 
  • 1Solidarity
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 users
Rangoth

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
2,225
2,491
Dalren said:
I cleaned up my portfolio today. Might have sold the bottom, who knows. But cleared out the big runners and my turds. Even sold a chunk of my bitcoin. Feels refreshing to have so much cash at once, but i think I'm going to be sitting out on any buys for a bit and see where the market goes. My gut and the overheated charts are screaming at me first half of 2026 might get ugly, hell this Q4 has been ugly and it feels like the entire market is waiting on what Nvidia is about to report next week. I'm probably wrong so i may be a good one to counter trade here, lol.
Click to expand...

I’m interested so please keep us updated. I assume the rough plan is to find the bottom of an extended downtrend and get back in with a larger position?

I kind of use the “wheel” strategy on my SPY position in my long term account. But it’s basically super low risk, low delta, never take a loss wheel. I’ve calculated that it gives me a 1-3% edge annually over just leaving it alone. So not game changing money but adds up over 5-10 years.
 
  • 1Tendies
Reactions: 1 user
Haus

Haus

I am Big Balls!
<Gold Donor>
17,613
71,667
1763187560092.png
 
  • 2Worf
Reactions: 1 users
D

Dalren

Trakanon Raider
71
67
Rangoth said:
I’m interested so please keep us updated. I assume the rough plan is to find the bottom of an extended downtrend and get back in with a larger position?

I kind of use the “wheel” strategy on my SPY position in my long term account. But it’s basically super low risk, low delta, never take a loss wheel. I’ve calculated that it gives me a 1-3% edge annually over just leaving it alone. So not game changing money but adds up over 5-10 years.
Click to expand...
I will add, this was just me clearing up my trade bag. Back to cash. Majority is all long hold I've not touched. But to answer your question, no real plan yet. Just going to see how the market handles Nvidia results, may even sit out December or dip into some momentum plays if we rally for Christmas. I still have a lot of doubts going into Q1 right now though.
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
7,544
37,680
MSTR pain is now spreading to it's preferred offerings. How much of BTC weakness is stemming from the loss of confidence in MSTR?

Losing several % more again today against BTC
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
<Gold Donor>
49,231
133,981
Blazin said:
MSTR pain is now spreading to it's preferred offerings. How much of BTC weakness is stemming from the loss of confidence in MSTR?

Losing several % more again today against BTC
Click to expand...
Straight talk. If you are long MSTR and underwater (as most are), do you ride it out for a rebound or cut bait and take what capital you have left to reinvest in something that can make you a profit?

Because its not a "company" that has a balance sheet/Income statement, sales etc you cant look at it like one. Its got one asset on its balance sheet. Its diluting its share value to keep buying that asset.

Most of us have been in the position before where a long gets a dagger in it and the stock price tanks 20-35%. Some of us more than once. There are variables to dig into and come up with a plan for the path forward. MSTR has two variables, BTC price and stock dilutions. Of, and of course the preferred dividend Saylor has to figure out how to pay when MSTR has no income and BTC doesn't pay a dividend.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
7,544
37,680
Its very hard to answer that, it comes down to can saylor get premium back into the stock, if not it needs to be dumped for BTC. He is willing to outside the box things, so I have no idea if he will do something that manages to put premium back in, but I am confident it will be harder for him to do again. Premium is hope based on future returns/leverage and his decisions on how to raise capital is going to deter any further attempts.

I have a sense the market is going to do put this entire "bitcoin treasury company" concept through a serious stress test, we haven't talked about BMNR but that is another one in that Tom Lee might have stepped into a mess right at the peak.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Rangoth

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
2,225
2,491
Depending on your definition of long I think it will be fine. It’s basically BTC. I know the charts have desynced because of all the shit he pulls, it long term it’s still BTC. I have absolutely no idea what his play is, but I’d wager in 5-10 years it will above the recent 52w high by a mile. Short term, and probably the next 1-2 years it will be eaten alive.

the puts on it have been fantastic but it seems like it will find some love in the 150’/160 range
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
7,544
37,680
Rangoth said:
Depending on your definition of long I think it will be fine. It’s basically BTC. I know the charts have desynced because of all the shit he pulls, it long term it’s still BTC. I have absolutely no idea what his play is, but I’d wager in 5-10 years it will above the recent 52w high by a mile. Short term, and probably the next 1-2 years it will be eaten alive.

the puts on it have been fantastic but it seems like it will find some love in the 150’/160 range
Click to expand...
Kinda of irrelevant if it's just higher or lower it the performance versus BTC that is really the issue.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
<Gold Donor>
49,231
133,981
Rangoth said:
Depending on your definition of long I think it will be fine. It’s basically BTC. I know the charts have desynced because of all the shit he pulls, it long term it’s still BTC. I have absolutely no idea what his play is, but I’d wager in 5-10 years it will above the recent 52w high by a mile. Short term, and probably the next 1-2 years it will be eaten alive.

the puts on it have been fantastic but it seems like it will find some love in the 150’/160 range
Click to expand...
The problem is "the shit he pulls". Thats what an investor can't calculate. BTC is BTC. Its a known value. But investors in MSTR aren't buying BTC, hey are buying shares of MSTR. Those shares can and have been diluted. So lets say you go long today. If BTC goes straight so the value of its asset stays the same But Saylor issues new shares, then the value of your investment has gone down even with BTC being the same. That is the core problem. if he wrote a covenant today saying no more dilutions then at least you could try to value the stock.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Rangoth

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
2,225
2,491
Fair and it’s clearly disconnected at this point. So if you believe in BTC it would seem you are better off buying it or a standard conduit over MSTR. I just have no idea what this dude long game is
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
7,544
37,680
Well we should get to see more affirmatively in the next 24 hours if a market corrective cycle has begun. As of this moment evidence points to yes. Dialogue will switch from ATHs to where does it find support. We are so extended above the 200d with SPY that all you can do is play it level to level. We may have some rallies into the sell zone currently 668-672 area. We get it over with quicker with some blood in the street moves rather than the slow bleed.

Most bullish set up would be to not violate the 10/10 lows
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
You must log in or register to reply here.