Investing General Discussion

Blazin said:

I think I'm done talking about MSTR at this point, people should be able to watch this see the giant ass gaping holes in the thought process and make decisions accordingly. If not , caveat emptor

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If you want to save yourself 8 minutes.

"Paying the dividend is the right thing to do, in the short term".
"Even if the board has the right to suspend the dividend, we plan to pay it in perpetuity."
"We are 27% leveraged when counting in the preferreds."
"I understand the concern that the balance sheet needs to cover the preferred payments so we just issued stock to generate $1.88b in payments."
"We will keep 2-3 years of cash reverses to pay the dividends."
"Everyone thinks we need to have a 1MNav but we aren't an ETF we are an operating company, we dont need to maintain 1MNAV."
"We are an operating company, if you want to just buy BTC then go buy BTC."
"We might lend out BTC down the road."

Flobee said:

I mean I don't disagree with the general point here. Buying Bitcoin is infinitely better than holding a financial instrument that represents the price of Bitcoin in some way. My main argument is that MSTR should at least be represented appropriately if its going to be attacked. I've been pretty clear from the jump that IMO they're either going to be huge or explode in spectacular fashion.

Either they successfully speculatively attack the USD and buy BTC, or they fail.

They're not highly leveraged as commonly stated. They have over a year of cash reserved for dividend payments, and an incentive to make them for as long as possible. They are absolutely building a ridiculous financial weapon that may very well blow up in their face, I just think if you're going to talk about it, at least be accurate. MSTR is an outlet for the volatility they're piping OUT of their preferreds. Its mostly useful for vol traders honestly and he says that himself.

I tend to think the preferreds are more interesting than MSTR itself. I'm keen to see if they can keep them up

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Perfectly honest here. I look at MSTR through the lens of an investor. Not a Crypto aficionado.
They began as a BTC holding company. This was 100% fine as long as that was what they were. Its why their stock was over $400 for a time.
Then Saylor morphed the strategy (no pun). He began debasing the stock price to buy more BTC. This fucked existing investors. Its a straight up gamble on Saylor's part. If BTC goes flat for a period of time his investors lost.
Then he issued notes paying preferred dividends when he has no cash income to pay the dividends. His cash raising options are issue more equity, issue more notes, sell BTC. There are zero other options for cashflows to pay the preferreds and to buy more BTC.
My opinion is MSTR is no longer an investment, its a gamble. And I am ok gambling. I made some decent alpha during the SPAC craze. but I always knew it was a gamble.
The trick is, as mainstream brokerages allow direct BTC trading and holding, MSTR gets more and higher quality completion for investor alternatives.

Everything above is focused on MSTR the company and not BTC the underlying asset..

UNH +5% because...

WMT 10-day chart. Up almost 15%



Up over 100% in less than 2-years.