Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
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Well that didn't last lol. Was up to almost $78 for a while.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange upped margin requirements again, second time in a week.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange upped margin requirements again, second time in a week.
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Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,668
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IBIT just slamming into over head resistance, the range is narrowing could mean we get resolution soon, chart says leg lower. No longer as profitable to play the range I want to see a break up or down.
My probability guess as it sits is 40% chance move up to 54, 60% chance move down to new lows. Maybe a double bottom from April lows is going to be needed to build interest and upside momentum. I'd say a close today below 49.30 shifts it further towards the bearish outcome .
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Kithani
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,951
- 2,735
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,668
- 38,014
Stonks Contest Update
SPX 2025 Closing Level 6845.50
Our winner is
Omayga
with a guess of 6875! Congratulations on your medal
www.firesofheaven.org
SPX 2025 Closing Level 6845.50
Our winner is
Omayga
with a guess of 6875! Congratulations on your medal2025 Official Stonks Contest
2022 - Winner: Gravel (4152/3839.50) 2023 - Winner: ShakyJake (4760/4769.83) 2024 - Winner: Palum (5900/5881.63) Same rules as last year, picking the SPX close for 2025 25 pt increments and no duplicates so get those guesses in. Winner receives the coveted Stonk contest medal badge and...
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Tmac
Adventurer
- 10,653
- 18,790
That’s below the April bottom. I picked an arbitrary point above it as to not miss it.
Tmac
Adventurer
- 10,653
- 18,790
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 45,606
- 163,810
Did my spreadsheet update for the year, and our portfolio went up more this year than our best earning year of actually working. And that's gross, not net.
Considering our first year of retirement we saw a 21% drop (YoY, peak to valley was even worse), I'd say things are going amazing. 4 years in and our portfolio is 30% higher than our starting point (SPY is about 43.5% in that timeframe), which obviously includes 4 years of withdrawals.
I was actually telling my wife a few days ago we're potentially running into a situation of having too much money. Our taxable account probably has 1 full year remaining to draw from, which means the rest is locked behind 10% early withdrawal fees. However, we're about 15 years from being able to draw those down without it. That said, we'll also start dipping into the Roth ladder soon too, which should likely cover all our expenses. But that means we've got about a 1.5% withdrawal rate on our total portfolio, meaning we saved way too much money.
I've been doing better about spending more money, but switching from saver to spending is significantly harder than I imagined. I was reading some posts about people 8-10 years into early retirement that are finally getting it. I'll definitely revisit this when the market has a bear year and we drop back to our original portfolio value in 2021 though.
Considering our first year of retirement we saw a 21% drop (YoY, peak to valley was even worse), I'd say things are going amazing. 4 years in and our portfolio is 30% higher than our starting point (SPY is about 43.5% in that timeframe), which obviously includes 4 years of withdrawals.
I was actually telling my wife a few days ago we're potentially running into a situation of having too much money. Our taxable account probably has 1 full year remaining to draw from, which means the rest is locked behind 10% early withdrawal fees. However, we're about 15 years from being able to draw those down without it. That said, we'll also start dipping into the Roth ladder soon too, which should likely cover all our expenses. But that means we've got about a 1.5% withdrawal rate on our total portfolio, meaning we saved way too much money.
I've been doing better about spending more money, but switching from saver to spending is significantly harder than I imagined. I was reading some posts about people 8-10 years into early retirement that are finally getting it. I'll definitely revisit this when the market has a bear year and we drop back to our original portfolio value in 2021 though.
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
- 21,477
- 15,364
In a similar vein my "resolution" this year is to gauge early retirement "feel" for myself by cost cutting wherever possible to see exactly how much wiggle room I have compared to... every year up to this point where I've kind of spent without caring (I'm not a big spender to begin with though so... we'll see). The job market for software developers is atrocious and there is no job security in that field anymore. I'm tired of it and all the stress its causing me.
The biggest thing I cut was my golf membership, which I've had for almost 15 years, and was the most significant spend I have on a yearly basis (roughly $25k/yr when considering everything). I also ended almost all of my streaming memberships and will just do the typical 1-2 month binge watch routine for the services that have shows I want to watch. I want to know exactly how much I "need" to live moderately comfortably.
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Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,668
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Down years are quite rare but be careful of thinking you're ahead, which you may be. The math of down is really bad. It just hurts our brain to think this sequence of returns is a breakeven with a 4% withdrawal rate. Would be very easy to think in Year 6 that you are so far ahead could change routine.
Year 1 10%
Year 2 13%
Year 3 17%
Year 4 13%
Year 5 20%
Year 6 31%
Year 7 -48%
You're killing it, but you are young yet so stay vigilant as you get older there is less concern can start to push the boundary some. When you have a potential for nearly 40yrs to go there is going to be some REALLY bad years in that span.
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Furry
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I hit the goal I originally set in my plan to retire by 50. My original plan assumed 7% market returns, which seems comically modest now. The chance of a year blowing up my accounts is the main reason I decided to just keep on trucking instead of abandoning ship. That said, the feeling that you can just toss two fingers and walk out the door at work whenever you want feels pretty good.