Investing General Discussion

Gravel

Gravel

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B_Mizzle said:
I always get burned on silver. What i thought was gonna happen at 50-60, happened at 100 and right after I bought in. Luckily just a little this time.

In other news looks like we're đź‘Ť for 7k.

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Yeah, not so much.

Seems like we've been stuck in this +/- half a percent from 1% up. Not sure what breaks us out of it.
 
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Kirun

Kirun

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Gravel said:
Yeah, not so much.

Seems like we've been stuck in this +/- half a percent from 1% up. Not sure what breaks us out of it.
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The only part of the economy that is "stable" is the whole AI bubble. It's pretty much the only sector holding things together/doing well.

The boom/bust of that will determine which way we break out of it.
 
Nirgon

Loser Nirgon

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Kirun said:
The only part of the economy that is "stable" is the whole AI bubble. It's pretty much the only sector holding things together/doing well.

The boom/bust of that will determine which way we break out of it.
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They're either going to achieve the singularity in 10-15 years (lmfao) or it's going to blow up like an atomic bomb an inch from their face. Doozy of a recession is quite likely. We are probably looking at irreparable damage and things you can never get back.

Id guestimate they stand to lose 30-40 trillion on their bet which is somewhere in the ballpark of the US GDP at a guess. Now factor in all the time lost training engineers and actual talent. There's such a thing as luke warmies with lots of money and Lord were they salivating at no longer having to rely on their less wealthy intellectual superiors.

I've met some of these types on the cruise ships and resort hot tubs. Boy howdy are they full of themselves, and now coping that AI development has "shifted". It will probably be the last vain, greedy and foolish act of the boomers. The upside is at least they'll be gone and real MAGA + generation Zyclon will have a chance at building something meaningful. Maybe. AI is far from useless but I don't see anything close to the return on investment they're hoping for.

PS: I told one of them a little less than a year ago my advice is to short the fuck out of Bitcoin asap and he told me for a younger guy I sure live in the past. Like he's some economist that came back in time from the future.
 
Kalaar kururuc

Kalaar kururuc

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Quick followup, I went with unmanaged as after reading your comments, and some other reputable sources, I just didn't see the point of managed. The initial lump went into developed world excluding uk, and I'll just keep topping that up. That fund has historically been not quite as good as USA only, but its more diverse so perhaps less 'risky'. It has been much better than global-all due to developing world volatility, and slightly better than developed including uk. Plus the UK already has my cash savings, so I'm spreading the love.

I'm now shopping for yachts, and debating changing my name to Bobby.
 
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T

Tirant

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Nirgon said:
They're either going to achieve the singularity in 10-15 years (lmfao) or it's going to blow up like an atomic bomb an inch from their face. Doozy of a recession is quite likely. We are probably looking at irreparable damage and things you can never get back.

Id guestimate they stand to lose 30-40 trillion on their bet which is somewhere in the ballpark of the US GDP at a guess. Now factor in all the time lost training engineers and actual talent. There's such a thing as luke warmies with lots of money and Lord were they salivating at no longer having to rely on their less wealthy intellectual superiors.

I've met some of these types on the cruise ships and resort hot tubs. Boy howdy are they full of themselves, and now coping that AI development has "shifted". It will probably be the last vain, greedy and foolish act of the boomers. The upside is at least they'll be gone and real MAGA + generation Zyclon will have a chance at building something meaningful. Maybe. AI is far from useless but I don't see anything close to the return on investment they're hoping for.

PS: I told one of them a little less than a year ago my advice is to short the fuck out of Bitcoin asap and he told me for a younger guy I sure live in the past. Like he's some economist that came back in time from the future.
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Haha I get told the same all the time. Talking about stocks/financial stuff everyone my age looks at me like I'm crazy when I say I like gold.
 
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TJT

TJT

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Nirgon said:
Id guestimate they stand to lose 30-40 trillion on their bet which is somewhere in the ballpark of the US GDP at a guess. Now factor in all the time lost training engineers and actual talent. There's such a thing as luke warmies with lots of money and Lord were they salivating at no longer having to rely on their less wealthy intellectual superiors.
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This is the part that is hard for people to grasp. The only reason you have graybeard engineering sorcerers is because they spent decades learning it step by step. Just like any other thing. AI doesn't shortcut that because of general friction. Documentation is bad even when its better than other documentation, requirements are written by people who leave things out and describe things poorly, exact system nuances that simply do shit with little rhyme or reason and it isn't documented anywhere (See: The Art of the C Compiler). Proprietary technologies AI is supposed to master don't even bother with commented code because that shit is for pussies.

AI will always be useful but the storm brewing right now is going to be felt a decade from now. Enshittification of AI made software containing logical bombs and fundamental issues that the Senior Engineers of the 2030s have no idea what to do about and the problems are now the cornerstone of billion dollar revenue companies. Along with the massive shortage of talent that was deliberately prevented from learning.

That is what I see at the end of this road. Also some better chatbots than the flow-oriented chatbots of the 2010s.
 
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TJT

TJT

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This one of the more unfortunate casualties of AI retardation. If there was any one tool I knew of that would immensely benefit from AI integration. Its Figma. The tool itself is quite good as far as UX tools go. All you had to do was add in AI where you can have it alter stuff, add images, and have Claude Code or similar just code it in your framework of choice and prop it up on localhost as you go. Boom you now have Microsoft Frontpage circa 2001 for the 2020s and beyond. Which was actually a decent enough platform back then too. Frontend is by definition a narrow scope of development and exists within the vacuum of the singular app itself in most cases. Which makes it perfect for AI integration.

This even has the advantage of not falling into the same trap as Frontpage (couldn't keep up with the endless changes to frontend gayness).

But no. Can't have that!

 
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Nirgon

Loser Nirgon

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TJT said:
This is the part that is hard for people to grasp. The only reason you have graybeard engineering sorcerers is because they spent decades learning it step by step. Just like any other thing. AI doesn't shortcut that because of general friction. Documentation is bad even when its better than other documentation, requirements are written by people who leave things out and describe things poorly, exact system nuances that simply do shit with little rhyme or reason and it isn't documented anywhere (See: The Art of the C Compiler). Proprietary technologies AI is supposed to master don't even bother with commented code because that shit is for pussies.

AI will always be useful but the storm brewing right now is going to be felt a decade from now. Enshittification of AI made software containing logical bombs and fundamental issues that the Senior Engineers of the 2030s have no idea what to do about and the problems are now the cornerstone of billion dollar revenue companies. Along with the massive shortage of talent that was deliberately prevented from learning.

That is what I see at the end of this road. Also some better chatbots than the flow-oriented chatbots of the 2010s.
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Oh yeah great to bring up. Its not just the tech learning but the business logic. We point things out or figure them out and correct them all the time without picking a fight over it (bringing it up lol). Look at me, I'm the senior business analyst now lol.

Glad we got you here mang.
 
Fogel

Fogel

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AMD down 13% after an earnings beat. Eying 160 puts for 3/06 but didn't pull trigger yet. PLTR also down the past couple days after earnings. Sold a couple 105 puts for 3/06
 
Haus

Haus

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Fogel said:
AMD down 13% after an earnings beat. Eying 160 puts for 3/06 but didn't pull trigger yet. PLTR also down the past couple days after earnings. Sold a couple 105 puts for 3/06
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There's a lot of discussion I'm seeing around if we're seeing the teetering edge of the AI bubble about to pop. If it does I think it leads to a marketwide correction, I'm just not sure how to position to mitigate/avoid as much of that damage as possible.

Maybe I'll just buy donuts and hope for the best....



Oh.. nevermind then....
 
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fris

fris

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back to the AI bubble, I don't see it. The demand for compute is growing constantly just like our demand for energy.


stolen from the politics thread:



comptroller.texas.gov

Infographic: Learn more about Texas' diversified energy portfolio.

Infographic: Learn more about Texas' diversified energy portfolio.
comptroller.texas.gov comptroller.texas.gov

Energy production in Texas has been on a steady climb. Datacenters greatly increase that demand, faster than homes, making the spike from people less and making the grid easier to manage. after that crazy freeze a few years ago, we haven't had any major outages.
 
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Furry

Furry

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I mean, data centers have to create some amount of jobs, otherwise they'd just be loot boxes for the drug addicts. I'm fine with them existing as long as they pay their power share and then some and the state isn't retarded about building new power to meet the demand.
 
C

Caligula_The_Cat

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Furry said:
I mean, data centers have to create some amount of jobs, otherwise they'd just be loot boxes for the drug addicts. I'm fine with them existing as long as they pay their power share and then some and the state isn't retarded about building new power to meet the demand.
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Problem is they are building the data centers before building the energy to power them.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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Building two in Louisiana near a nuclear plant. I figured they would at some point. On the MS river and within 100 miles of 3 nuclear plants. Too bad come summer time when it's 100 degrees for a while some poeple will be without power, so let's add a lot more demand. They haven't added any power since the nuke plant was finished in the 80s and before the announcement of the data sites they closed two coal plants weithin sight on the other side of the rive.
 
Haus

Haus

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Furry said:
I mean, data centers have to create some amount of jobs, otherwise they'd just be loot boxes for the drug addicts. I'm fine with them existing as long as they pay their power share and then some and the state isn't retarded about building new power to meet the demand.
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There's a problem in the mathing on this....

Time to build a new mega scaling AI data center, including regulatory approval times : ~3-5 years
Time to build a new nuclear power plant, including regulatory approval times : ~10-20 years
Time to build a new coal/gas power plant, including regulatory approval times : ~3-4 years (But VERY difficult to get regulatory approval now a days)
Time to build out enough solar/battery capacity to cover this data center? : ~3-5 years (But would take thousands of acres of land, plus supply chain constraints on components)

That last option is one reason a couple companies are literally considering places like Midland Texas (middle of damn nowhere in west texas) for AI data centers, because they also plan on trying to build out solar/wind/battery capacity to cover them.
 
Furry

Furry

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Haus said:
There's a problem in the mathing on this....

Time to build a new mega scaling AI data center, including regulatory approval times : ~3-5 years
Time to build a new nuclear power plant, including regulatory approval times : ~10-20 years
Time to build a new coal/gas power plant, including regulatory approval times : ~3-4 years (But VERY difficult to get regulatory approval now a days)
Time to build out enough solar/battery capacity to cover this data center? : ~3-5 years (But would take thousands of acres of land, plus supply chain constraints on components)

That last option is one reason a couple companies are literally considering places like Midland Texas (middle of damn nowhere in west texas) for AI data centers, because they also plan on trying to build out solar/wind/battery capacity to cover them.
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Gas power plants can be built under a year. Anything longer than that is self-handicap. I've mentioned before that I have a relative that is the head engineer/chemist at a corp that builds stuff for power plants. Realistic time-frame in texas is you can get a new power plant up in 2 years. And texas is building data centers and power plants concurrently. IMO, we're doing it relatively right as a state. For my relative's company this is a completely gangbuster year putting it lightly. They upped their bids massively and companies still are buying literally everything the second its built.

Cases like New Jersey where they just slap the data center down and tell the citizens fuck you while sticking a huge tax dildo up their ass is obviously doing it wrong.
 
Haus

Haus

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Furry said:
Gas power plants can be built under a year. Anything longer than that is self-handicap. I've mentioned before that I have a relative that is the head engineer/chemist at a corp that builds stuff for power plants. Realistic time-frame in texas is you can get a new power plant up in 2 years. And texas is building data centers and power plants concurrently. IMO, we're doing it relatively right as a state. For my relative's company this is a completely gangbuster year putting it lightly. They upped their bids massively and companies still are buying literally everything the second its built.

Cases like New Jersey where they just slap the data center down and tell the citizens fuck you while sticking a huge tax dildo up their ass is obviously doing it wrong.
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Is that 2 years including regulatory approval and permitting? If so, they've changed up something in that process to speed it along.
 
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