Investing General Discussion

TJT

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Cad said:
In your scenario, if I understand it right, you start with $100k. It goes up 300% in one year, you end up with a $400k value. You'd have a $300k capital gain, so you'd pay 36% of that in tax, right? You sell $108k of the security to cover the taxes (I guess you could pay this out of pocket and then the security crashes in value, is this your scenario?) so you are left with $298k. The security in the next year then crashes to 20% of its original value, or $58,400. You also now have $233k in loss carry-forwards that never expire.

If you paid the taxes out of pocket and did not sell the security, you could end up negative, although you do have a huge tax benefit waiting for you on future gains to offset it. It really depends on how those loss-carryforwards are applied.

Man. Thinking this through, investing and actually getting gains comes with huge risks because you need to sell to lock in your gains or you risk paying tax on a gain you never actually had. It's just counter-productive, it's going to guarantee nobody actually invests there because the stories of people getting turbo-fucked like in your scenario WILL happen, and people WILL spread it far and wide.
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Sorry, I can't hear you over the year 1 and year 2 tax revenue windfall.

-Some Dutch bureaucrat faggot
 
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M Power

M Power

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Tirant said:
There’s probably 30% of the US population that would vote for this, thinking it would have no impact on them since they don’t own stocks. Totally ignorant of all the benefits that come from living adjacent to rich people. The hatred on the left for anyone they feel has it better than them shouldn’t be underestimated.
Pretty depressing tbh
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You say 30% would vote for it but over 40% don't even own any equities so it's probably higher.
 
Borzak

Borzak

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I'm sure a significant number would vote for it just because it would mean it would screw someone else, even if it screwed them as well. Just not as much as someone else.
 
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Cad

Sheriff Cad

scientia potentia est
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Borzak said:
I'm sure a significant number would vote for it just because it would mean it would screw someone else, even if it screwed them as well. Just not as much as someone else.
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You would be surprised I guess at how bitter people can be at other people's holdings. Look how salty people are when anybody talks about boomer's 401k's or 401k's in general. "Oh everyone is poor and can't afford a thing but 401k's are up! KILL THEM ALL"

Nothing motivates people quite like the chance to take a swipe at those above them in status.
 
Borzak

Borzak

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I guess companies are making money in oil and gas are from lay offs. My sister runs one half of a company that staffs refineries and chemical plants. She told me tonight they are losing a lot of business from their customers laying off and doing partial shutdowns. One chemical plant is going out of business and you don't exactly just throw those up in faceobok marketplafe. I know one refinery changed hands and it took years to find a buyer. They are making money but from the price of oil starting to look like the early 80s when they had a major hit and bled blue collar workers and engineers left and right and took them a decade to recover. Price of oil been in the dumps for a few years now.
 
M Power

M Power

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Borzak said:
I guess companies are making money in oil and gas are from lay offs. My sister runs one half of a company that staffs refineries and chemical plants. She told me tonight they are losing a lot of business from their customers laying off and doing partial shutdowns. One chemical plant is going out of business and you don't exactly just throw those up in faceobok marketplafe. I know one refinery changed hands and it took years to find a buyer. They are making money but from the price of oil starting to look like the early 80s when they had a major hit and bled blue collar workers and engineers left and right and took them a decade to recover. Price of oil been in the dumps for a few years now.
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Seems like a bad time to lay oil workers off considering what's going on over near Iran.
 
Borzak

Borzak

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M Power said:
Seems like a bad time to lay oil workers off considering what's going on over near Iran.
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I don't know. Refiners are up about 20% stock price year to date. Other than that people feeling "nervous" which isn't very concrete.
 
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Rod-138

Rod-138

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I was able to listen to a talk from a a couple of industry heads and pulled tidbits. None of this is groundbreaking btw, but it was still a cool listen.

interest rates will drop more than you think

AI is more accurately priced than the tech bubble in terms of price to profitability and it’s not close. We’re seeing more of a mag 7 redistribution than an ‘AI’ sell off. Mag 7 is down on the S&P - I think they said all of it.

Trump admin is going to run out of time (midterm house shift) and the second half is going to resemble the investigations of his first term. Look for a big push of legislation before midterms and don’t expect much to happen in terms of change after that asides from things like impeachment efforts to affect markets momentarily.
 
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Khane

Khane

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Nobody, absolutely nobody can tell if AI is accurately priced or not because nobody has any clue how any individual, or company, will utilize it or how effectively they've deployed it. Pretending to know if AI is accurately priced or even suggesting it, does nothing more than illustrate a complete lack of understanding of it.

And it also conveniently ignores the inevitable pricing "rug pull" after your company becomes a captive audience completely reliant on it
 
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M Power

M Power

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TJT

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I am just waiting for 5 years from now. When as opposed to just paying Microsoft a fee to use Excel and the Office Suite, you have to pay Microsoft for Excel and Claude Excel Code because all of your excel type analysts will have become dependent on it.

AI in Excel is an extremely clear cut case because Excel is a finite program with limited functionalities. I know people don't read the function book and just glean shit from whatever but they won't even do that now. It's going to be insane and with the per-transaction tokenization of AI now just filling a seat to use Excel will cost even more than it did with Microsoft putting the screws to you!

It really is not feasible to just use an AI agent in a lot of these cases. Corporate financial documents and internal business rules are poorly understood at almost any company. It's always the one guy who happens to know why we do this or that. Human knowledge is imperfect like this. If you think one AI using 1 excel license to just have Lionel the finance guy churn out the whole departments docs and analysis.

Well I assure you that ain't happening.
 
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