Investing General Discussion

Flobee said:

Maybe I have some insight you dont.

I didn't say it would kill anything, just that it's not scaling the way they're saying it is and there is a lot of malinvestment

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I highly doubt you know some sort of secret insider knowledge the market doesn't. If you did you'd be a billionaire and not posting here.

M Power said:

I highly doubt you know some sort of secret insider knowledge the market doesn't. If you did you'd be a billionaire and not posting here.

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Also not what I said. I said I may have insights that -you- dont

M Power said:

I highly doubt you know some sort of secret insider knowledge the market doesn't.

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Every crypto bro seems to share the same underlying Dunning-Kruger mentality - absolute certainty that they've personally cracked the code of finance, economics, and currency itself. Yet the moment you ask the obvious question: "if you've unlocked the secrets of the global financial system, why aren't you living on a $150 million yacht?", the conversation immediately devolves into vague slogans about how you "just don't understand crypto, finance, currency, FIAT, gold standard, etc." or promises that society is just "two weeks" from total financial collapse and their inevitable rise to Lordship.

Kirun said:

Every crypto bro seems to share the same underlying Dunning-Kruger mentality - absolute certainty that they've personally cracked the code of finance, economics, and currency itself. Yet the moment you ask the obvious question: "if you've unlocked the secrets of the global financial system, why aren't you living on a $150 million yacht?", the conversation immediately devolves into vague slogans about how you "just don't understand crypto, finance, currency, FIAT, gold standard, etc." or promises that society is just "two weeks" from total financial collapse and their inevitable rise to Lordship.

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Dumb point. If you can't address what I say and can only talk about me, then you have no argument and thus no reason for discussion. I'm clearly very different than you if I need a $150m yacht to be able to make a valid point.

Congratulations for failing to make any coherent response outside of gossiping like a woman because you have nothing useful to say. This will conclude my responses unless one of you actually had something useful to say

Flobee said:

Dumb point. If you can't address what I say and can only talk about me, then you have no argument and thus no reason for discussion. I'm clearly very different than you if I need a $150m yacht to be able to make a valid point.

Congratulations for failing to make any coherent response outside of gossiping like a woman because you have nothing useful to say. This will conclude my responses unless one of you actually had something useful to say

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Tell us all what insider knowledge you seem to possess. All you've posted so far is the equivalent of TikTok/Instagram influtard financial "advice".

M Power said:

Tell us all what insider knowledge you seem to possess. All you've posted so far is the equivalent of TikTok/Instagram influtard financial "advice".

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First of all, this is the grown up section. Keep it civil. Blazin

Second of all, judging by your profile, you’ve been on this forum for all of 5 minutes. Some have literally been here for 25+ years. Tenure certainly doesn’t make anyone knowledgeable, but prior to insults, I do question how much you’ve actually read in this section of the forum.

M Power said:

Tell us all what insider knowledge you seem to possess. All you've posted so far is the equivalent of TikTok/Instagram influtard financial "advice".

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This is a fair question because I edited my original post because I didn't want to dox myself. As such I'll have to leave it as an annoying vague-post, but you can look at Khane post as well. If I recall correctly he'd be in a similar position to see what I'm seeing. These companies dropped a ludicrous amount of money on a bet that AI would produce insane productivity gains. They ARE producing insane productivity gains, but its not panning out the way they expected and told everyone they would. It is also costing them significantly more than they expected.

You'll likely see some of these companies back-pedal a bit and potentially either rehire some of the positions they've laid off as a result. AI is incredible and will replace an insane amount of jobs but its not a guarantee it works in the way they've gambled it will.

It is, IMO, quite likely that AI scales in a way where gigantic data centers are not needed for what 90%+ of peoples use cases are. I suspect the average consumer will end up running local models instead of feeding all their data and information to these larger platforms. Companies will keep pouring money down the drain, but eventually they'll get the memo and pivot. The comparisons to the 2000 dotcom situation are apt. These companies and the people running them know this technology is transformative but they don't yet know how to invest to take advantage of it properly. I'm not making a claim that you'll see a similar market reaction, just that there are structural similarities in the form of serious mal-investments and misunderstanding of the timeline that this tech will mature and how to effectively leverage it.

I hope that clarifies a bit. If you need me to provide some sort of credentials to verify this opinion you'll just have to kick rocks I guess

Jysin said:

First of all, this is the grown up section. Keep it civil. Blazin

Second of all, judging by your profile, you’ve been on this forum for all of 5 minutes. Some have literally been here for 25+ years. Tenure certainly doesn’t make anyone knowledgeable, but prior to insults, I do question how much you’ve actually read in this section of the forum.

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I can guarantee you I've been around this community much longer than you. My account date has zero bearing on my knowledge of shitposting amongst people here. I was on Noowz, were you? If you want to use some sort of arbitrary community date range as knowledge of postinga here we can do that too. What a stupid comment.

M Foler?

Phelps McManus said:

Are we talking about the average business consumer running local models? On what GPUs? A bunch of distributed, private, and likely underutilized LLMs seems less efficient than the data center model. This applies to individual consumers as well. Inference costs are coming down for each new chipset, which the data centers adopt first.

The pivot you describe, which I agree seems likely, makes the constraints on power and compute worse. Any investment in companies that relieve those constraints (like $SO) is a smart one.

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I suspect businesses will lag private use on this. I also suspect that compression on models will drive nominal costs toward zero over time. My framework is that this progresses in a similar was as Bitcoin hashing compute did. CPU -> GPU (generalized) -> specialized hardware. Efficiency stepping up dramatically on each shift.

I tend to think that data privacy will continue to become more relevant for people as the full weight of how their data has been used becomes more obvious and thus incentives to run smaller more localized compute will increase. This is highlighted by the major data breaches occuring on these monolithic centralized platforms.

I frame it kind of like internet adoption where the whole business sector thought that private intranets were the future, but a more decentralized model of the internet outcompeted that model. See AOL. This frame is something I also apply to Bitcoin vs the Stablecoin/block chain/ etc ecosystems. It seems to be a consistent thing that suits want to control things but can't compete with more open models

Those are some of my assumptions, combined with first hand experience, that lead me to my conclusions.