fris
Vyemm Raider
- 2,622
- 3,660
- 3
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
- 7,219
- 5,777
This is for all of you seriously considering the SpaceX IPO.
Disclaimer first, this guy typically is a shill for his trading course. Ignore that part.
That said, this is the most well presented facts of the upcoming SpaceX IPO and the inherent risks and red flags, especially for investors. This should be a must watch for anyone looking to pick these up for your long term portfolios. Key takeaways: only 4% of the entire float is available, short lockup periods (with low float to absorb sellers), changing exchange rules to allow ETF inclusion faster than any stock in history, etc etc. It all means a lot of shenanigans and likely a hyper volatile offering.
Disclaimer first, this guy typically is a shill for his trading course. Ignore that part.
That said, this is the most well presented facts of the upcoming SpaceX IPO and the inherent risks and red flags, especially for investors. This should be a must watch for anyone looking to pick these up for your long term portfolios. Key takeaways: only 4% of the entire float is available, short lockup periods (with low float to absorb sellers), changing exchange rules to allow ETF inclusion faster than any stock in history, etc etc. It all means a lot of shenanigans and likely a hyper volatile offering.
- 1
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 16,309
- 69,638
Would be interesting to compile how all of the largest IPO's in recent history have trended since launch, since the controversy is that insiders get in early while retail gets to fight over the scraps
Here's what AI had to say with a quick search:
The largest IPOs in history frequently struggle to outperform the broader market five years post-launch. While highly anticipated, these record-breaking listings tend to suffer from high valuation expectations and subsequent post-IPO slumps, though there are notable exceptions. [1, 3, 4]
Historical Mega-IPOs After 5 Years
A look at the long-term returns of the largest capital raises globally shows a mixed but generally underwhelming track record: [1, 2]
Recent Startup Heavyweights (The 2021 Class)
The tech and EV-heavy class of 2021—which saw the highest aggregate proceeds since the dot-com bubble—has notoriously trended downward. Five years later, many are trading significantly below their first-day prices: [1, 2]
Blockbuster IPOs launched since 2020 have generally followed a trend of explosive first-day "pops" followed by steep, multi-year declines as public market valuations adjusted. Most of the largest listings (like those in 2020 and 2021) are currently trading well below their initial all-time highs. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The trends of specific post-2020 record-setting public debuts highlight this trajectory:
According to analysis of long-term IPO data tracked by Professor Jay Ritter, large venture-backed companies can occasionally beat broader market benchmarks in the long run. However, the average IPO launched since 2020 has underperformed compared to historical market averages. Because many of these companies stayed private longer to raise massive amounts of private capital, there was historically less room for post-IPO capital appreciation for public shareholders. [1]
You can track historical and current performance metrics for these offerings using financial tools like Yahoo Finance or Stock Analysis.
Here's what AI had to say with a quick search:
The largest IPOs in history frequently struggle to outperform the broader market five years post-launch. While highly anticipated, these record-breaking listings tend to suffer from high valuation expectations and subsequent post-IPO slumps, though there are notable exceptions. [1, 3, 4]
Historical Mega-IPOs After 5 Years
A look at the long-term returns of the largest capital raises globally shows a mixed but generally underwhelming track record: [1, 2]
- Visa (2008): Raised $17.4 billion. It is a notable outlier, vastly outperforming and crushing market indices over its long public life.
- Alibaba (2014): Raised $21.8 billion. While it posted decent returns overall five years out (roughly 88% up), the stock has since lost well over half its peak value.
- Saudi Aramco (2019): Raised $25.6 billion. Down roughly 21% after five years of public trading, trailing behind the broader market.
- NTT DoCoMo (1998): Raised $18.1 billion. Down over 50% five years later before eventually being taken private.
- Enel (1999): Raised $16.4 billion. Barely broke even, returning around 5% over its first five years as a public entity. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Recent Startup Heavyweights (The 2021 Class)
The tech and EV-heavy class of 2021—which saw the highest aggregate proceeds since the dot-com bubble—has notoriously trended downward. Five years later, many are trading significantly below their first-day prices: [1, 2]
- Rivian (RIVN): Carried out the largest traditional IPO of the AI/EV generation ($11.9 billion), briefly boasting a market cap larger than legacy automakers. Years later, it has shed tens of billions in market cap amid intense production scaling and industry competition.
- Coinbase: Shed massive market value since its direct listing and sits significantly below its initial highs. [1, 2, 3]
Blockbuster IPOs launched since 2020 have generally followed a trend of explosive first-day "pops" followed by steep, multi-year declines as public market valuations adjusted. Most of the largest listings (like those in 2020 and 2021) are currently trading well below their initial all-time highs. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The trends of specific post-2020 record-setting public debuts highlight this trajectory:
- Snowflake (SNOW - 2020): Raised $3.36 billion in the largest software IPO of all time, with shares initially jumping over 100% on day one. While it traded significantly higher for years, recent growth deceleration left shares hovering around 30% to 60% below their peak pandemic highs. [1, 2, 3]
- Airbnb (ABNB - 2020): Reeled in $3.5 billion in a blockbuster debut that saw shares surge 112% on day one. The stock trended positively during the post-pandemic travel resurgence but eventually cooled under sustained shareholder pressure. [1]
- Rivian (RIVN - 2021): Raised approximately $12 billion in the largest EV IPO of the year, popping nearly 30%. The stock has since been categorized by financial analysts as a "busted IPO," as scaling challenges and cash burn dragged its market cap down to a fraction of its early peak. [1, 2]
- Lineage (LINE - 2024): The massive $4.4 billion cold-storage REIT debut initially traded above its $78 offering price. However, shifting post-pandemic demand for cold-storage services and macroeconomic headwinds quickly led to a downward trend, erasing nearly half of its launch value. [1, 2]
According to analysis of long-term IPO data tracked by Professor Jay Ritter, large venture-backed companies can occasionally beat broader market benchmarks in the long run. However, the average IPO launched since 2020 has underperformed compared to historical market averages. Because many of these companies stayed private longer to raise massive amounts of private capital, there was historically less room for post-IPO capital appreciation for public shareholders. [1]
You can track historical and current performance metrics for these offerings using financial tools like Yahoo Finance or Stock Analysis.
Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
- 7,219
- 5,777
I had swung in and out of the position, with my lowest entry around $260. I cut the whole thing when Berkshire announced they exited.
Rangoth
Vyemm Raider
- 2,307
- 2,615
Great example of not needing to understand the markets and the whole "can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". This and their statement about absolutely not tolerating a blockade and warning people in the north of Israel to GTFO and yet barely a blip in overall market reaction!
I feel like there is a PUT play on SPY somewhere for the brave but nothing seems to be taking this train of its tracks.
Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
- 7,219
- 5,777
Markets are being affected by recency bias. However, under the hood, oil is trading back to highs of day (despite the Axios nonsense). SPY gamma has structurally changed today. There has been relentless gamma pushing the indexes for weeks, but today everything is just flat. The key info being, structure has changed vs recent weeks. Time to sit and wait for clear direction.
- 1
Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
- 7,219
- 5,777
Peace pump back on.
Title: I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Source: Newsquawk - Truth Social
URL: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116676034049614301
Title: I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Source: Newsquawk - Truth Social
URL: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116676034049614301
- 2
- 28,849
- 38,985
CRAK etf is holding out. I bought a very little before the Iran deal started, mostly because I wanted a little exposure to refineres, especially Valero with them leaving CA. looked earlier up 34% YTD, it's not AI booming however.
Bonus is I get to say crak is doing well if someone is dumb enough to ask me about the market. Which oddly happens from time to time.
Bonus is I get to say crak is doing well if someone is dumb enough to ask me about the market. Which oddly happens from time to time.
Sheriff Cad
scientia potentia est
- 34,098
- 82,570
Ironically seems similar to the tech fund I buy (VGT), it's also up 33% on the year. VGT isn't only AI stuff but obviously includes it.
- 28,849
- 38,985
I bet the refiners ETF pulls back before a tech ETF. Maybe not. It's a pure guess at this point and I'm not a market timer but it's an intersting comparison at this point. Rapidly moves into a political talk but if the strait opened 100% tomorrow I have no idea how long it would take to work through the system, and the few I've listened to that said they knew I'm not sure. Of course there's a lot of political talk when it comes to the AI section of tech.
Kithani
Vyemm Raider
- 2,369
- 3,383
Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 3,343
- 3,944
Listened to an argument from a guy comparing these upcoming IPOs with the Mississippi Bubble from the 18th century. Which was interesting as I'd not heard of it. Also made similar comparisons to the Railroad Mania from the 19th century and fiber optic speculation from the 90s.
This would be a combination of the two as it's both investment into revolutionary technology (AI) AND into expansion into and development of a new frontier (space in this case). Both were obviously good ideas and were eventually incredibly profitable... But the investors in these particular schemes got wiped out.
Not saying that any of these IPOs are going to fail by any means, just that history tends to rhyme and this has all the signs of turning into a speculative mania. I suspect we're gunna boom big, real big, but somebody is going to be left standing when the music stops.
The comparison actually made me consider throwing in a little bit just to be along for the ride. Nothing I don't mind losing but it's always fun being part of these sorts of things. Long term bullish on this stuff working out, wary of these specific ventures though.
This all ties in to the changes required for the US to move toward a production oriented economy as I see it. This is probably going to be a net positive for the US but the way these things work somebody is going to get wrecked in the process.
This would be a combination of the two as it's both investment into revolutionary technology (AI) AND into expansion into and development of a new frontier (space in this case). Both were obviously good ideas and were eventually incredibly profitable... But the investors in these particular schemes got wiped out.
Not saying that any of these IPOs are going to fail by any means, just that history tends to rhyme and this has all the signs of turning into a speculative mania. I suspect we're gunna boom big, real big, but somebody is going to be left standing when the music stops.
The comparison actually made me consider throwing in a little bit just to be along for the ride. Nothing I don't mind losing but it's always fun being part of these sorts of things. Long term bullish on this stuff working out, wary of these specific ventures though.
This all ties in to the changes required for the US to move toward a production oriented economy as I see it. This is probably going to be a net positive for the US but the way these things work somebody is going to get wrecked in the process.
Last edited: