Investing General Discussion

Jysin

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Semis weak this morning. SNDK and MU down 7%

Citrini's Jukan says "in my view, it’s only a matter of time before Chinese manufacturers begin to significantly erode the consumer memory market share of established players"
 

Khane

Got something right about marriage
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INOD ripping again today. Feeling a lot less anxious than I was a month ago about this whole early retirement thing.
 

Dalren

Trakanon Raider
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SPCX not available on Fidelity.
I registered fidelity account this morning for it. It's not listed as SPCX in the IPO.
1780598800232.png
 

Haus

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OK. This has me asking questions this morning....



Can someone correct me if I'm wrong in the belief that stronger jobs markets, while inflation is still above target directly encourages the fed into a more restrictive stance (i.e. possible interest rate increases)?? Is that not where were at right now? And doesn't higher interest rates almost always lead into headwinds for the stock market?

I find it impossible that Trump doesn't know/believe this. Or am I just massively off base here?
 

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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OK. This has me asking questions this morning....



Can someone correct me if I'm wrong in the belief that stronger jobs markets, while inflation is still above target directly encourages the fed into a more restrictive stance (i.e. possible interest rate increases)?? Is that not where were at right now? And doesn't higher interest rates almost always lead into headwinds for the stock market?

I find it impossible that Trump doesn't know/believe this. Or am I just massively off base here?

Your intuition is spot on. Strong jobs report coupled with the inflation risks gives Fed more room to tighten. This is why yields spiked on the print.

Trump is just in his own world, detached from fiscal reality.
 

Haus

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Your intuition is spot on. Strong jobs report coupled with the inflation risks gives Fed more room to tighten. This is why yields spiked on the print.

Trump is just in his own world, detached from fiscal reality.
I think it's that either he, or his people, have convinced him that the stock market is EVERYTHING in terms of the American economy. So now he has to make everything into something which should pump the markets. (i.e. "The Dow is at 50,000!!!!" memes)
 
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Jysin

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I am still dumbfounded how out of touch the administration is with joe average household. The exact same thing they (rightfully) held over the Biden administration. Pointing to stock markets at all time highs and claiming that all of America is strong and prosperous is ignorant at best and insulting to most. I believe the number is 40% of households own no stocks whatsoever, and even among those that do, a big portion hold minor positions in 401k's etc that make no real difference in their daily lives.
 
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Furry

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The retards in the treasury finally gave me my money, or at least their email claims they did. Won’t have any idea what it was until I get back to America. How many damn months have I been waiting? Cashing high value paper bonds is aids.
 

Rangoth

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Fucking sea of red today, or is just what I follow?

we were hitting all time highs on shit across the board for about 2 weeks now, some minor corrections were bound. While it’s a breadth red day most Major players are still well above 50/100/200 MAs
 
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Haus

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we were hitting all time highs on shit across the board for about 2 weeks now, some minor corrections were bound. While it’s a breadth red day most Major players are still well above 50/100/200 MAs
Yeah, over the last month alone a ton of stocks have seemingly gone parabolic. Giving back 10% probably shouldn't shock anybody at this point. My company is still up over 50% in the last 30 days. (ergo why I've been this "Is this irrational exuberance" monkey for the last few weeks...)
 

Jysin

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Fucking sea of red today, or is just what I follow?
Just your follow. AI tech being rotated into value. The tech weighs heavy on indexes, so it looks bad.

Money is flowing into: Retail trade, Health tech, Healthcare, Consumer staple dividend stocks, etc. All very very green on the day.
 

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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Contrarian take:

As you said, we are weeks deep into a continuous rocket up to ATHs. VIX is back at 15. Hedging is cheap right now. You can buy some really cheap downside protection with long dated OTM puts on the ETFs. Don't wait for the shoe to drop and protection costs to go up. Buy now while calm and at very stretched in the weekly charts.

I certainly am not deploying longs here.
This was timely, and paying well. Let's see if the wheels fall off the bus next week. A gap down Monday will really create some panic.
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Down about an entire year's worth of expenses today in net worth. Which I guess is actually a good thing, because it means our withdrawal rate is sub-3%. Definitely annoying, but then again, we're also still up massively this year.