Investing General Discussion

Phelps McManus

Phelps McManus

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When your stock price jumps on a purchase you make with mostly stock, that represents a powerful discount you enjoy compared to the rest of the market. Pretty smart move, planned well in advance of today, and executed immediately after the IPO.
 
Haus

Haus

I am Big Balls!
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Furry said:
Spacex fundamentals are retarded and bad, but people should know where this story is going if Tesla is any lesson. Chugga chugga choo full speed ahead.
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Jysin

Jysin

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New Fed Chair out the gate swinging.

Title: FED SIGNALS HIGHER RATE PATH, MARKETS PRICE HAWKISH SHIFT

Federal Reserve projections show the median funds rate rising to 3.8% in 2026 (from 3.4%), 3.6% in 2027, and 3.4% in 2028, with the long-run rate steady at 3.1%. Inflation is expected to stay elevated, with PCE not returning to 2% until 2028. Markets are pricing a hawkish shift, with traders assigning high odds of further hikes before 2028.
Source: Newsquawk - Fin X

 
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Borzak

Borzak

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I keep reading that there is a goal of 2% inflation and the biggest impact is fed policy, but nothing on what the plan might be going forward, other than I assume up interest rates in the future.
 
Kithani

Kithani

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Borzak said:
I keep reading that there is a goal of 2% inflation and the biggest impact is fed policy, but nothing on what the plan might be going forward, other than I assume up interest rates in the future.
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There is no plan IMO just keep kicking the can down he road until people actually get unruly.

I think the big lesson government learned from 2008 is people care less about rampant inflation / money printing even if they lose purchasing power than they do about seeing their numbers go down.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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If our Fed took us back to 15%+ 30Y yield of the Volcker era 1980s, I would back up the truck and dump everything I own into it.

(This would likely also bankrupt the US with its current debt obligations, so maybe not the best of plans)

*Edit*
Even AI says this would be a catastrophe and unmanageable.

"The primary reason this strategy is no longer viable is the massive volume of leverage in the system. When Paul Volcker enacted his "shock" in 1979, the U.S. national debt was roughly $830 billion (about 30% of GDP). Today, the national debt stands at a staggering $38.6 trillion (well over 100% of GDP), completely altering the mechanics of monetary tightening."
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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Hence "kick the can". Anyone who would talk honeslty about the shape we are in and the pitfalls ahead would never get anywhere to the point they could actually take any steps at all.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Look at the age of congress. They are juicing their wealth today by destroying the future of the next generations. They won't be alive to deal with the fiscal repercussions of the deficit spending that began in 2008 and legged up massively since Covid. Someone else will be left to deal with the debt.

There will have to be some combination of:
-Dollar Inflation (repay today's loans in tomorrow's inflated money) <-- most likely lever to be pulled the strongest
-Tax Hikes
-Fiscal Conservatism (budget cuts)

Everyone for the last 20 years has been guilty of it Dem or Rep. It is getting completely out of hand now, but these pains will be felt for a long time to come.

Hell, we are paying $1T .. yes TRILLION.. in interest only on US Government debt in 2026.
 
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Kithani

Kithani

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For the records I just mean we need someone to come along willing to say “this shit stops now and it may hurt” not necessarily do exactly what Volcker did.
 
TJT

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Kithani said:
For the records I just mean we need someone to come along willing to say “this shit stops now and it may hurt” not necessarily do exactly what Volcker did.
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Keep dreaming. lol. Not until the Boomers are dead and out of office permanently.
 
Khane

Khane

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To be fair older millenials (like me, born in 82) and Gen X are basically the same people.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Up until Gen X, generations used to be 20 years. Marketers decided 15 years was better for some reason.

Gen X should've really been 1965 - 1985. And it would've fixed all the weird shit where 1981 - 1985 doesn't really fit well with Millennials due to being pre-mass internet adoption.

Although, 1986 - 2005 would've been a pretty weird generation too.
 
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