Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Jysin

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I would be fairly concerned hitting the eject button and retiring right as the whole AI trade is beginning to wobble. Sure, it may pass and we just grind away to new ATHs, but with AI tech propping up the markets, any sizeable unwind can really dent the overall indices. We have had a few outsize return years since 2022. I wouldn't measure future returns by those metrics.
 
TJT

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I generally agree there will be some kind of evaluation bubble with AI. But I fail to see how there will be a collapse. AI is not going anywhere.
 
Cad

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TJT said:
I have a few financial goals for my kids across 529s and UTMA I want to achieve before I pull the trigger. But I am pretty sure I'll hit that mark in about 3 years. I also want to get everything sorted into a Revokable Trust and purchase a property in Wyoming. Once I have all that I will be ready. This is a soft list I guess but I know all of this is very well within my reach.

I am still 50/50 on getting another similar job where I target a fully remote position and one I know I can coast in. Which is really going to be any big corporate job after a decade of grinding in startups and overemployment.

Do you have any intention of doing IDK, one case a year or something just to keep a little busy here and there?
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I still work part time just helping my law partners with things they need, I'm sort of pinch hitting if available. I don't take a draw anymore I only get paid when we get paid, so it works out for everyone.
 
Cad

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TJT said:
I generally agree there will be some kind of evaluation bubble with AI. But I fail to see how there will be a collapse. AI is not going anywhere.
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I don't see any reason to believe that the markets will operate fundamentally differently after AI than before it. Specific companies will absolutely get murdered but thats why we own the indexes generally not trying to pick winners.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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The crux of the problem exactly is the massively overweight AI tech names in the index. The top 10 S&P stocks today are something like 40% of the entire S&P weight vs ~20% by historical norms. My concerns are exactly that, the extreme concentration risk. Most average traders just drop their money into the S&P and think they are diversified. When in reality, we are at concentration levels that meet / exceed dot com era levels.

Again, this isn't to say we are headed for imminent disaster, but if the AI narrative changes whatsoever, your SPY / VOO investments will see large impacts.

Personally, I have slowly started putting some money into $RSP (equal weight S&P) to try and add some diversification protection.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Speaking of AI narrative: Anthropic released their S-1 filing today.

1H 2026 = $80B loss.

The term "catastrophic and existential risks to humanity" was used 3 times and something astounding like 30% of the entire filing was used to highlight risk.
 
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Cad

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Jysin said:
Speaking of AI narrative: Anthropic released their S-1 filing today.

1H 2026 = $80B loss.

The term "catastrophic and existential risks to humanity" was used 3 times and something astounding like 30% of the entire filing was used to highlight risk.
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I'm not the financial analysis guy especially with companies that big with accounting tricks that we probably never heard of, but didn't they reach operational profitability and are making money on compute now? They still got a ways to go to net profit, but they seem like they're making more and more money off each unit of compute which is important, they can't just keep burning cash to add compute.

I saw this earlier regarding Anthropic, definitely seems like positive news on the "how does all this hardware make us money" front:

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