Investment - How should I do this?

Xarpolis

Life's a Dream
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My wife was recently given 5 million yen from her grandfather in Japan. We're waiting for the value of JPY to raise again before we actually transfer it over to USD. It's currently extremely low, meaning that 109 JPY = 1 USD. However, the November, 2012 it was around 79 JPY per USD and began to climb from there, never going back down. We're planning on waiting for JPY to spring back in value, so we don't take a complete bath in transferring it over. I'd like to wait for it to be close to a 1:1 value, where as 1 JPY = 1 cent USD.
US Dollar: CURRENCY:USD quotes & news - Google Finance

Now, on to investments. I've heard that a Vanguard account is a great way to go. I'm not terribly interested in playing with the stock market myself, so I'd much rather leave this in the hands of someone else. Would anyone recommend going the Vanguard route, or should we try something else?

We also currently overpay our mortgage by around $400 every month, just to pay it down. I'm happy doing so, but in the home buying thread, someone mentioned that they're earning roughly 12% interest by investing that small amount of money every month. Earning ANY interest at all theoretically, would be a bonus, so how should I go about doing all of this?

I currently have a Money Market, Savings & Checking account with my local bank. I've had these accounts for probably 20 years, and the bank has since been bought out by National Penn. So that's where my finances rest. I don't really have any sort of savings to speak of, except for a 401k. We got ourselves pretty heavily in to debt early on, and we've been slowly working our way back out of it. I actually opened up 3 0% APR credit cards to pay off a much larger bill, and I've been paying them off. The game plan is to pay off each of them 1 month before the final payment is due, thus we'll never get hit with any interest beyond the initial balance transfer fee.

Any advice from this point would be appreciated.
 

Unidin

Molten Core Raider
807
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If you're going to use that money to pay off a credit card bill in the next year, you should leave it liquid. You really shouldn't invest in the stock market with money you have earmarked for something unless you have a longer time horizon (3-4 years minimum). The reason is if the market dips 20% tomorrow, then you don't have the money you need to pay the credit cards.
 

Soriak_sl

shitlord
783
0
My wife was recently given 5 million yen from her grandfather in Japan. We're waiting for the value of JPY to raise again before we actually transfer it over to USD. It's currently extremely low, meaning that 109 JPY = 1 USD. However, the November, 2012 it was around 79 JPY per USD and began to climb from there, never going back down. We're planning on waiting for JPY to spring back in value, so we don't take a complete bath in transferring it over. I'd like to wait for it to be close to a 1:1 value, where as 1 JPY = 1 cent USD.
US Dollar: CURRENCY:USD quotes & news - Google Finance
This is actually pretty risky market timing, as you're speculating on currency exchange rates -- which is a great way to lose a lot of money. I'd think of it this way: you may take a relative hit in exchanging JPY into USD, but you get a discount on buying international stocks. Also keep in mind that the Japanese economy has been doing poorly for over a decade, so it's not entirely clear what kind of surprising demand for exports would drive up demand for their currency beyond what is already priced into the exchange rate.

Now, on to investments. I've heard that a Vanguard account is a great way to go. I'm not terribly interested in playing with the stock market myself, so I'd much rather leave this in the hands of someone else. Would anyone recommend going the Vanguard route, or should we try something else?
Yep, Vanguard index funds are the way to go. They have the lowest fees in the industry and track their benchmarks with high accuracy (as do other large funds), which is all you can get out of an index fund. Which ones to pick is going to depend on what the purpose of this money is. Saving for retirement? Saving to build wealth? In the former, a target-date retirement fund is a good call (just pick the one closest to the year you plan to retire, or maybe one a little later). What they do is they invest heavily in stocks early on (to maximize expected return) and as you get closer to retirement, they shift assets into less risky investments, to minimize the risk of large losses when you actually need/want to withdraw.

If the goal is to invest to build wealth, you can pick more aggressive funds. Personally, I have 50% in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index) and 50% in VXUS (Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index). The two symbols are for the ETF versions (non-permanent residents can't open an account with Vanguard), but they're essentially identical to the mutual fund version.

We also currently overpay our mortgage by around $400 every month, just to pay it down. I'm happy doing so, but in the home buying thread, someone mentioned that they're earning roughly 12% interest by investing that small amount of money every month. Earning ANY interest at all theoretically, would be a bonus, so how should I go about doing all of this?
Paying off your mortgage quicker provides you a guaranteed return equivalent to the interest rate on the mortgage, and paying off the house sooner may have other benefits. Investing it elsewhere comes with some risk: yes, 12% isn't far from the long-term average of a 100% stock portfolio, but the gains can vary tremendously year over year. The past couple years have seen returns above 20% per year, but you also have to expect that some years will have negative returns.

You should think of this as investing with borrowed money. Would you go to the bank, take a loan at the interest rate of your mortgage, and invest that money in the stock market? If yes, invest the $400/month. If not, pay off the mortgage faster. Personally, I would invest the extra money in a regular brokerage account with Vanguard (i.e. not in an IRA/401(k)) -- that way you can realize the higher expected gains, with the understanding that this may not quite work out, and if you do actually need help making mortgage payments down the road, you can withdraw that money and use it to make payments.

I currently have a Money Market, Savings & Checking account with my local bank. I've had these accounts for probably 20 years, and the bank has since been bought out by National Penn. So that's where my finances rest. I don't really have any sort of savings to speak of, except for a 401k. We got ourselves pretty heavily in to debt early on, and we've been slowly working our way back out of it. I actually opened up 3 0% APR credit cards to pay off a much larger bill, and I've been paying them off. The game plan is to pay off each of them 1 month before the final payment is due, thus we'll never get hit with any interest beyond the initial balance transfer fee.
Does your employer offer any matching for your 401(k) contributions? If so, do you contribute enough to get the maximum matched amount? That's by far the best investment you can make: matching is a 50% or 100% (depending on the employer) instant return, which is just impossible to beat. You do want to look at how your 401(k) contributions are invested, though: a lot of people lose a LOT of money that way. Make sure you have low-cost index funds rather than actively managed mutual funds here.

Next, you could consider an IRA/Roth IRA. The choice here depends on your current tax rate and what you expect your tax rate in retirement to be. If you think your tax rate will be lower in the future, pick an IRA; if you think it will be higher, pick a Roth IRA. As a rule of thumb, I think the younger you are, the better off you are with a Roth IRA. Do keep in mind that you can always open both types of accounts, but you can contribute only $5,500 in both of them combined. Which of the two you pick is actually not such a big deal unless your tax rate is going to be MUCH higher/lower upon retirement. So I wouldn't stress too much about the choice here, but do contribute the max to one of them.

Lastly, there's a regular brokerage account: no tax breaks, but unrestricted access to the funds. You can also do this via Vanguard and pick index funds. They actually have lifecycle funds that diversify across stocks and bonds depending on the level of risk you're comfortable with. Stocks have the highest expected rate of return, but also very large variance: one year they can return 30%, the next year they can lose 20%. I think a 100% stock portfolio is nice for a "building wealth" fund just because it's money you don't expect to need anytime soon. You might as well just leave it there and not look at how the market's doing. In 20 years, you're likely much better off than with any other investment -- and over 35 years, I don't think there's a period in history when you would have done better with anything other than 100% stocks. Do diversify across US and international stocks, though. 50:50 is an allocation based on the fact that the US makes up roughly 50% of global GDP, so you're essentially weighing investments by their share of the world market (which is how indices work). There are global stock indices, but I think their fees are higher than when you just build it yourself. Some analyses (including that of Vanguard) suggest you should overweight stocks in your currency (in this case US Stocks), because of the currency exchange risk. So Vanguard's funds use about a 60:40 split in favor of US stocks. Again, the difference here is going to be pretty small... either is a perfectly valid choice.

Some of the stuff is just min-maxing that is worth thinking about a little, but shouldn't hold you off from making a decision. The worst thing that can happen is to be discouraged by the complexity and not do anything... nobody can tell you for sure whether an IRA or Roth IRA is going to be better, for example. But either is better than forgoing the tax break entirely.
 

Soriak_sl

shitlord
783
0
If you're going to use that money to pay off a credit card bill in the next year, you should leave it liquid. You really shouldn't invest in the stock market with money you have earmarked for something unless you have a longer time horizon (3-4 years minimum). The reason is if the market dips 20% tomorrow, then you don't have the money you need to pay the credit cards.
I took from the OP that the credit cards will be paid off with money other than the inheritance? If that's the case, it's fine to invest. But if this money is used to pay off CC debt, then definitely do not invest in anything other than a CD or an online savings account -- see bankrate.com to find the best rate.
 

Xarpolis

Life's a Dream
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Sori, I really wish I had your numbers some time. I know your dad is incredible with this type of shit. At least that's how I remember it from meeting you at Fan Faire a long long time ago.

Anyway, we're planning on paying off "most" of our credit debt with standard funds as per our regular schedule. We'll put a little bit of this $50k into it, but she wants to hold onto as much of it as possible as a potential college fund for our daughter.
With that in mind, plan on being able to invest $40k of it into a Vanguard as soon as JPY starts to rebound as opposed to being in the deepest low in the past decade.

My wife is technically a green card resident, but the $50k will be put into our joint account. With that in mind, I will be able to open the Vanguard account myself.

I'm going to have to re-read what you posted a few times though. I get lost on some of the various terms such as IRA/Roth IRA. Need to look it up as I figured it out.

As for contributing to my 401k, I invest 5%, however the company only matches 100% up to 3%, then 50% for everything above that. So I'm technically getting 9% invested every week.
 

Soriak_sl

shitlord
783
0
Sori, I really wish I had your numbers some time. I know your dad is incredible with this type of shit. At least that's how I remember it from meeting you at Fan Faire a long long time ago.
Good memory; my dad's in finance. Although I now advise him on his savings... the student has become the master.
wink.png


Anyway, we're planning on paying off "most" of our credit debt with standard funds as per our regular schedule. We'll put a little bit of this $50k into it, but she wants to hold onto as much of it as possible as a potential college fund for our daughter.
How old is your daughter? It may be a good idea to consider a 529 college savings plan with at least parts of the funds. In Pennsylvania you can deduct $28k per year from your state taxes (though not federal taxes) for such contributions if both of you have an income. If only one of you works, the max is $14k. When you use the money in the fund to pay tuition or other qualified expenses (school supplies, construed pretty broadly), you don't pay taxes on the withdrawals or gains. Also can be easily transferred to another beneficiary if your daughter gets a full ride. Worth having some money in it...

With that in mind, plan on being able to invest $40k of it into a Vanguard as soon as JPY starts to rebound as opposed to being in the deepest low in the past decade.
You could also exchange the cash now, then take some of the money and invest it in a JPY currency exchange traded fund. That's one way to mitigate the risk of a "bad" exchange rate: if the JPY rebounds, you'll make money on that trade. But if the JPY crashes further, you have much of the money in USD at least. It's pretty unfortunate to exchange at a low point, but the problem is that there's no way of knowing just how low the JPY will drop and when/if it will rebound.

For example, the Nikkei was at 38,000 in 1990 and started dropping quickly, but stabilizing around 25k in 1991. People then probably also held on in hopes of the market rebounding, but it dropped continuously all the way to 8,000 in 2004. Today, it's at 16k -- still well below 25k. So those people have waited 25 years and the market isn't even half what it was back then. The Japanese economy is screwed up pretty badly and it seems the official policy is to just keep doing what hasn't worked for the past 25 years...

Another option would be to exchange the currency, then invest some of it in the Nikkei. You essentially benefit from the "bad" exchange rate when investing in Japanese firms. Whether that's a good market to invest in... but then it may also not be a good currency to hold. It's been dropping steadily since 2012.

My wife is technically a green card resident, but the $50k will be put into our joint account. With that in mind, I will be able to open the Vanguard account myself.
Should be no problem to be on an account as a green card resident -- that's permanent resident status.

I'm going to have to re-read what you posted a few times though. I get lost on some of the various terms such as IRA/Roth IRA. Need to look it up as I figured it out.
IRA: You deduct the contribution from your taxable income and you pay income tax on your withdrawals.
Roth IRA: You can't deduct the contribution from your taxable income, but you pay no taxes on your withdrawals.

The optimal choice comes down to whether you think the tax rate will be higher when you make withdrawals compared to today. That depends on your current income, the income you expect to have in retirement, and what you think happens to US tax policy: are taxes more likely to go up or down? Especially the last part, nobody can really answer for you. There's just so much that's going to change over the next 20-30 years.

For income: I'm a firm believer that your income the day you retire should be at least as much as it was when you stopped working. Simply because you now have a lot more free time, and doing fun stuff is going to be costly. Most people think they'll need less money after they retire and I think that's fundamentally flawed. Of course most people simply haven't saved enough to have a decent income in retirement, so that may also be a matter of necessity... but you shouldn't plan to have too little savings from the get go.

As a rule of thumb, I think Roth IRAs are probably good for incomes up to $180k. You're probably not going to spend more than that in retirement and 28% is reasonably low in an international comparison -- so maybe those tax rates are more likely to go up than down. But if your income is much higher (e.g. $400k with a marginal tax rate of 40%), then maybe your future rate is going to be lower than that. Who knows. On the other hand, when your income is $400k, does the difference in a couple hundred bucks in tax savings really matter? So maybe Roth IRAs are just the way to go no matter what.

An alternative approach is to think that in your Roth IRA, you know exactly how much money you'll have, whereas in a regular IRA, the amount that you can withdraw is uncertain due to unknown future tax rates.

As for contributing to my 401k, I invest 5%, however the company only matches 100% up to 3%, then 50% for everything above that. So I'm technically getting 9% invested every week.
There must be a cap for the 50% match, too, right? Up to that cap, a good strategy may be to take some of that money and throw it into your 401(k) instead of a Roth IRA: a 50% match is still pretty hard to beat.

You'll definitely want to take a look at what you're invested in with your 401(k) though. The options that employers offer range from optimal (Vanguard, Fidelity, TIAA-CREF) to abysmal (horribly overpriced, actively-managed funds).
 

Xarpolis

Life's a Dream
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As far as income goes, I'm around $60k/yr, and my wife is around $53k/yr.
So we're not even remotely close to your $400k mark.

I'll find out what the cap is for the 50% match. It "might" be 6-7%, but I don't recall.
Also, check your PM's.
 

taebin

Same trailer, different park
963
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My company does a 1:1 match up to 6%, and you're vested immediately. Loving it.
 

Xarpolis

Life's a Dream
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Looks like I was wrong when I said it earlier. My company does 50% match up to 3% of your total, so I invest 6% every week getting me 9% into 401k.
 

Soriak_sl

shitlord
783
0
Looks like I was wrong when I said it earlier. My company does 50% match up to 3% of your total, so I invest 6% every week getting me 9% into 401k.
If you invest 6% and only get 50% matching on the first 3%, that leaves you with 7.5%. I think it'll be worth looking at what funds you have available in your 401(k) and what, if any, matching and fund choices your wife has. Depending on what your respective employers offer, it may make more sense to save in one over the other.

For example, going from 3% to 6% on $60k is an extra $1,800/yr in savings. If you don't currently max out (or have) a Roth IRA, then I'd almost surely move that money into such an account instead (so 3% to the 401(k) and 3% to the Roth IRA). It gives you much more flexibility with investing the money so that you can avoid potentially costly funds.

Similarly, if your wife doesn't get the maximum matching amount from her employer, then her saving more (and you saving less) would work better.

edit: a long-term goal would probably also be to increase your joint savings rate to 15-20%. A great way to do that is to save from raises. Suppose you get a $100/month raise. You could then increase your savings contributions by $50. That's 50% of the raise, which is a lot, but saving money you've never had in the first place is easier than cutting back on existing expenses. That'd actually be a very aggressive way to increase your contributions: by the time you're earning $75,000 you would already be at a 15% savings rate.
 

Xarpolis

Life's a Dream
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Hmm, I'm confused now. I was under the impression that the company would match 50% until they hit 3% of my total, not if I hit 3% of my total. Meaning 1 = 1.5, 2 = 3, 3 = 4.5, 4 = 6, 5 = 7.5, 6 = 9. At least that's how I understood it. Maybe they only do 50% until I hit 3% of my total, meaning that it would only be 7.5%. I really don't know. I'll have to look into it a little more. Also, we very very rarely get raises. That's the joy of working for your family business. I made 22/hr until about 3 years ago. I said that I wanted to hit 25/hr by the time my daughter was born, but ended up having an argument with my father and got fired instead. I came back a year later at 30/hr. That was great for a while, but then he cut everyone's hours to 32. And slowly raised other people back to a full 40. He expects me to work 40+ per week, even though I'm only getting paid for 32. It's really pathetic.

Anyway, I'm currently around 170 hours free due to the limited hours. I'd love to get paid for that time, but it'll never happen.

As far as my wife, she's a nurse and doesn't understand 401k. I told her that she NEEDS to put money into it, but she doesn't believe her hospital even offers a 401k. She said they have some kind of nurse retirement fund, and she "thinks" she's in that, but that's all I know. And she won't give me better answers about that. Ok, on the phone with her. She said they have a 403b but she doesn't think her hospital does any matching. Oh, the 403b is handled by Wells Fargo. My own 401k is done by Paychex, however the broker is from a firm called Barron's.
 

Soriak_sl

shitlord
783
0
Hmm, I'm confused now. I was under the impression that the company would match 50% until they hit 3% of my total, not if I hit 3% of my total. Meaning 1 = 1.5, 2 = 3, 3 = 4.5, 4 = 6, 5 = 7.5, 6 = 9. At least that's how I understood it. Maybe they only do 50% until I hit 3% of my total, meaning that it would only be 7.5%. I really don't know. I'll have to look into it a little more.
From what I've seen, the max is usually framed in terms of the employee's contributions (because that makes it look like more), but it may differ in this case. Definitely worth double-checking!

Also, we very very rarely get raises. That's the joy of working for your family business. I made 22/hr until about 3 years ago. I said that I wanted to hit 25/hr by the time my daughter was born, but ended up having an argument with my father and got fired instead. I came back a year later at 30/hr. That was great for a while, but then he cut everyone's hours to 32. And slowly raised other people back to a full 40. He expects me to work 40+ per week, even though I'm only getting paid for 32. It's really pathetic.
Upside of working for a family business: you may have influence about who runs the 401(k) plan! Vanguard offers this for small businesses:Vanguard - DC Small/Mid Services: Our approach

I have zero experience with setting up something like this, but given Vanguard's focus on cost control, I can't imagine they'd be more expensive than Paychex for the business' end. Some quick googling suggests that the funds available through paychex slap you with a massive front-loaded fee -- 3.5% on an investment into a Fidelity index fund (which has zero front-loaded fees on its own). At this point you need half a year of average market returns just to pay for the transaction... completely insane.

The bogleheads wiki has a guide on how to set up a 401(k):Setting up a 401(k) plan - Bogleheads

Their default assumption seems to be that you shouldn't use target date retirement funds, but I'd actually advise against that: for people who read bogleheads, alternatives are fine. For people who never check their portfolio, you'll definitely want Vanguard doing the rebalancing. The difference in fees is tiny and is easily justified given the rebalancing that people generally fail to do.

Access to low-cost Vanguard index funds is going to be a huge deal for all employees. The kind of money that gets eaten up by some overpriced funds in many 401(k) plans is just insanely ridiculous (on top of the front-loaded fee!), to the point where it's barely worth doing even with matching + tax benefits! Running it with Vanguard will give people choices they actually want to invest in.

As far as my wife, she's a nurse and doesn't understand 401k. I told her that she NEEDS to put money into it, but she doesn't believe her hospital even offers a 401k. She said they have some kind of nurse retirement fund, and she "thinks" she's in that, but that's all I know. And she won't give me better answers about that. Ok, on the phone with her. She said they have a 403b but she doesn't think her hospital does any matching. Oh, the 403b is handled by Wells Fargo. My own 401k is done by Paychex, however the broker is from a firm called Barron's.
She definitely has to look into this. A 403(b) is the equivalent of a 401(k) for non-profit organizations. Quite likely that she won't have access to Vanguard funds given that it's run by Wells Fargo, but there may be an index fund that doesn't suck that she can pick instead. Avoid if there's no matching, though, and instead throw the money into a Roth IRA until it's maxed out and into a regular brokerage account afterward (free to set up with Vanguard).