US Presidential Election 2016 Prediction Thread

yerm

Golden Baronet of the Realm
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Try to successfully guess/predict the outcome of the election. Each person gets one guess, and that guess should be in the form of a number between 0 and 538.

In order to make this as simple as possible, you are simply guessing the number of electoral votes that Hillary Clinton will obtain.

I predict 268.

In order to avoid confusion please do not edit your posts to change it, and instead just make a new post with a retraction and the new number.

Votes on or after November 8th don't count. Obviously.
 

yerm

Golden Baronet of the Realm
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This is stupid, have everyone create an electoral map

I stole this from Paradox off topic (where I also guessed 268) and it seemed the superior method. This is the most simple way of doing it. One number. Map ones can work alright but they can get a bit silly depending on rules structure for picking a winner. This way gives a basically undisputed winner.

Feel free to include a map with your prediction, or use one to help you reach it?
 

BrotherWu

MAGA
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0. Here, I made a map.

upload_2016-10-31_16-29-40.png
 
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TrollfaceDeux

Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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There are several predictions that I can foresee.

If Trump Campaign stays course and Hillary sticks to "Trump has secret server too and he is a Russian spy," she can mitigate the damage from the Comey fallout. The mitigation will be apparent after this week. Provided that wikileaks and other organizations do not proceed with leaks that are incredibly bad for Hillary, I predict the final result to be a Hillary victory:

upload_2016-10-31_21-37-4.png

Final Tally: 272 Hillary 266 Trump

In Swing states, Virginia, PA, and Michigan, the polling has been very consistent throughout the election. We can certainly factor in oversampling from Democrat side, but Trump has to overcome 6% deficit that he could never overcome throughout the election. Colorado is very close to Trump, but Hillary is holding tight and early voting patterns indicate that Democrats are enjoying a favourable turnout.

It is true though that Republicans do not vote early, nor Independent. So early voting could be meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Hillary has more money, more resource to push for go out and vote. That means she will waste her energy before the election and most of her favourable advantage would've been wasted prior to Nov 8. Trump is riding on populist support, which means that they will come out and vote for him on Nov 8.

What Trump needs right now is Colorado for a nail in the coffin. He has to start pushing liberal messages there. However, his populous message is not so favorable and I don't think resonates with Colorado residents. Trump will do well in PA and Michigan, however, with his message.

It is still a rough game for Trump. The fact that he has come so close to victory is no doubt a miraculous feat, despite the negative coverage and doubt on his victory. Obama swept the nation with over 300 electorates in both of his elections. Clinton may just cling to victory by a thread.