The Astronomy Thread

Brad2770

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I’m busy at work. I’ll edit and give this more effort when I get home.

But I started with 1:20,000,000
2 tickets increasing odds to 1:10,000,000

EDIT** Tuco Tuco

I don’t want to forget this so this was the reason for my response:

Growing up poor, my family has bought tickets. Myself, I have bought them, but I hadn’t bought them regularly until the last few months. I buy the regular Texas lotto. It has the better odds, but the lower amount. I’m not greedy.

I used to buy tickets for my grandmother when I helped take care of her. She bought one ticket per drawing and her reason was this: You might have two tickets, but each ticket still only has [1:20,000,000] odds of winning. She never believed that having more than one ever increased your chances enough dramatically to be worth it. I guess that “watermelon seeds grow in your stomach” way of thinking has stuck with me even as an adult.

I buy only one ticket per drawing. If I am meant to win, I will. I don’t think owning more than one ticket will give me any of a better chance.

That’s why I said what I did.

Anyways, it goes for the chances of finding that piece of debris. Taking into weather, pieces that actually survived entry, dust, etc... the chances should be pretty low. Almost non existent. Just like the chances for the people that actually win. Their chances are super low. Non existent. They still won though.
 
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Del

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Assuming the odds are correct in that there are 20,000,000 different combinations of numbers on the lotto ticket, if you bought 20,000,000 unique tickets then you'd have a 100% chance of winning. Brad failposted when he said buying 2 unique tickets doesn't double the probability.

The issue comes down to the return on investment rarely ever being above 0% because of cost and winnings amount. Also nobody is ever going to go out and buy 20m unique tickets, it's logistically impossible unless you had a ton of help. And then if someone else wins at the same time, you have to split the winnings. It's always a losing proposition.

edit - beaten by Tuco
 
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Tuco

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I’m busy at work. I’ll edit and give this more effort when I get home.

But I started with 1:20,000,000
2 tickets increasing odds to 1:10,000,000

EDIT** Tuco Tuco

I don’t want to forget this so this was the reason for my response:

Growing up poor, my family has bought tickets. Myself, I have bought them, but I hadn’t bought them regularly until the last few months. I buy the regular Texas lotto. It has the better odds, but the lower amount. I’m not greedy.

I used to buy tickets for my grandmother when I helped take care of her. She bought one ticket per drawing and her reason was this: You might have two tickets, but each ticket still only has [1:20,000,000] odds of winning. She never believed that having more than one ever increased your chances enough dramatically to be worth it. I guess that “watermelon seeds grow in your stomach” way of thinking has stuck with me even as an adult.

I buy only one ticket per drawing. If I am meant to win, I will. I don’t think owning more than one ticket will give me any of a better chance.

That’s why I said what I did.

Anyways, it goes for the chances of finding that piece of debris. Taking into weather, pieces that actually survived entry, dust, etc... the chances should be pretty low. Almost non existent. Just like the chances for the people that actually win. Their chances are super low. Non existent. They still won though.
Oh you're right, you said the # of tickets was 20mill. My above table is valid for 10 million tickets, but the premise holds true for 20 million.

But anyway, if you buy two unique tickets you do double your odds.

The sentence "Growing up poor, my family has bought tickets" really should be confusing, but it's sad that it isn't. Poor people putting their meager extra money into lotto is one reason why they are poor.
 
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Brad2770

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In my family’s defense, they didn’t spend all their money on lotto tickets.....






They spent it on meth.
 
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Mudcrush Durtfeet

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Anyways, it goes for the chances of finding that piece of debris. Taking into weather, pieces that actually survived entry, dust, etc... the chances should be pretty low. Almost non existent. Just like the chances for the people that actually win. Their chances are super low. Non existent. They still won though.

The chance is better assuming that there isn't just one piece of debris... which is not too likely imo.

Anyway, my original post was a joke. Essentially someone was asking (if you look at it a certain way) the percent chance of a past event that happened happening. As it happened in the past, 100% of the time, one could, jokingly, say the chance was 100%.

For example, what is the chance that Mudcrush posted that the chance was 100%?

:p

I know some probability stuff very well, use it a lot doing combats in Federation and Empire. A _lot_.
 
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TBT-TheBigToe

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I love Astronomy, the study of how the stars and constellations influence our lives and destinies is one of the great sciences of the World. Horoscopes are possibly one of the finest tools one can use in plotting their life course.
 
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Brad2770

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I love Astronomy, the study of how the stars and constellations influence our lives and destinies is one of the great sciences of the World. Horoscopes are possibly one of the finest tools one can use in plotting their life course.

Yeah, and I bet you think buying two lottery tickets doubles your chances at winning.
 
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Tuco

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Fucking airball
I learned last night that they plan a trajectory just short of the boat, and only when they are really confident do they do a final correction to put it over the boat.

And that they lost two rockets so far because that final correction wasn't working.
 
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Kiroy

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I learned last night that they plan a trajectory just short of the boat, and only when they are really confident do they do a final correction to put it over the boat.

And that they lost two rockets so far because that final correction wasn't working.

I was gonna ask if that miss was an intentional one. Looks like the correction wasn't to blame here with the speed that was going. Know if the video was sped up or slowed? No sense in also losing the boat if the thing is coming in way too hot.
 
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Tuco

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I was gonna ask if that miss was an intentional one. Looks like the correction wasn't to blame here with the speed that was going. Know if the video was sped up or slowed? No sense in also losing the boat if the thing is coming in way too hot.
It was going like 300mph, I doubt it was sped up.

The booster ran out of ignition fuel (not primary fuel), so it might've been going at terminal velocity. If it the boat, it would've totally destroyed it.
 
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Kiroy

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It was going like 300mph, I doubt it was sped up.

The booster ran out of ignition fuel (not primary fuel), so it might've been going at terminal velocity.

So in this case the final correction worked as intended instead of being the cause of the failure.
 
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Tuco

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So in this case the final correction worked as intended instead of being the cause of the failure.
Yes. Or rather, the final correction not working as intended. Which is true and extremely confusing.
 
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meStevo

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Yeah, I thought the whole 'lets not bomb our drone ship' last minute course correction by design thing was pretty neat when I first heard about it.
 
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Dandain

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Something a little different. I recommend watching this for everyone, it will probably make you smile unless you're an asshole.

 
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