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  1. Gurgeh

    Are you smarter than a 4th grader?

    72=9*4*2 Then simply, I guess that's it
  2. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    In the long run, most assuredly. we've been saying that for over a decade, for good reasons. But it could go on for another decade or two, unfortunately. So it's not a very usefull information from an investing point of view.
  3. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I live in France... It's a bit ridiculous, but currently the only plus side of being middle class in Europe, you can borrow 10 years worth of salary for under 1% interest rate insurance included, over 25 years... I honestly have no idea how that works for the banks if there is any significant...
  4. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Especialy when you can get 30 years mortgages below 1% IR (fixed rates...) ... why would you waste any of your cash on real estate.
  5. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Banks have been borrowing to the ECB at a negative interest rate for a while, so it's not "shocking", as it took a couple years to get to the point that "regular" customer can get those. But banks also fund themselves through bonds, with negative interest rate. I'm not sure whether those are...
  6. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage#targetText=A%20Danish%20bank%20has%20launched,than%20they%20have%20been%20loaned. Pants on the head.
  7. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Yeah... But currently, that's the game we have to play.
  8. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I had a similar feeling regarding housing market (in Paris) : I could have started buying an appartment in the mid 00's, but the price seemed bullish to me back then, with extremely low returns compared to the second half of the 20th century. I finaly bought one in 2017... and I'm in the...
  9. Gurgeh

    Parent Thread

    She's definitely smarter than average, first one to walk/eat by herself/talk/ make full sentences at her day care even though half a dozen kids are older, and she's been good very early at getting what she wants. I fear that I'm fucked, probably mainly because it's a girl. No way a boy would be...
  10. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Have you even read the OP ? And understood my reply ? What I'm suggesting can only extend the time he would keep Netflix. If he had assumed in 2009 that netflix was worth $30 USD, he would have sold it in 2010 regardless, but if he had assumed it was worth $150 it would have prevented him from...
  11. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    If you're having expectations on the future value of a stock, it means you don't believe it to be entirely random. If you don't believe it to be random, then it's not outlandish to assume to the variations of a given stock aren't independant of its past performance, so it's not like flips of a...
  12. Gurgeh

    Parent Thread

    When are we supposed to be able to negociate with a kid ? I absolutely never suceeded in negociating with mine (2.5 y/o), everytime I try something like :" you need to eat your broccoli if you want that ice cream" it fails. And to be clear, I never give her the damn ice cream or whatever she...
  13. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    That's both interesting and scary. What's the catch ? With the ETF they allow themselves to lend shares they own, and therefore make money, but what do they get out of no-commission shares trading ? Or are the banks allowed to lend shares people brought through them in the USA ? In Europe it...
  14. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Is it possible to get no-fee for direct shares trading in the USA ? Or are all those 0% fees only available through ETF ?
  15. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Keep in mind it's a tool when you want to bet against the market, and not only do you believe that the price is going to drop, but also that you can estimate how much it is going to drop. If it drops more than what you had estimated, it would have been better to wait with your cash and buy the...
  16. Gurgeh

    The Expanse

    Should be a bannable offense to bump this thread when there are no new episodes.
  17. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Which wasn't much of a problem until ETF trading became nearly 50% of the market in the USA. You're not diversified if you trade the same shit as 50% of the market. Which makes the counterparty risk significant. ETF will lose more than the index if Banks start going under. Possibly.. 100% for a...
  18. Gurgeh

    MS Flight Simulator 2020

    Looks good, fit some guns, make that MMO.
  19. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    If you look up the documentation of the ETF, you'll notice that most (at least ALL those that I have checked) mention that there is a "counterparty risk", they are lending stocks. I've looked up Amundi for example, and all their physical tracker are lending stocks, 25 to 45%. It is a risk as if...
  20. Gurgeh

    Interesting, Non Political News

    Airbus seems to be running is similar trouble : https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-a320-cog-economy/ I guess the 777 and 330neo are going to have similar issues, they've been pushing the boundaries of those older planes to save training time for airlines, but it's probably time to shift to 787...
  21. Gurgeh

    Interesting, Non Political News

    You don't get to pull that shit in southern, eastern Europe... Seriously, at a rodeo ?
  22. Gurgeh

    Carnival Row

    I felt the one between the puck and the lady were useful to the plot. Between Philo and Vignette, maybe not, but Orlando Blooms strength certainly isn't his romantic side, so... they might kinda had to do it.
  23. Gurgeh

    Carnival Row

    The last EP tied a lot more shit than I expected. I felt there were a lot of characters indeed, but not that many that weren't useful, they were either a way to expose us to the world, or probably being set up for season 2, like the kobold master, or the fanatics, the werewolf. I think the show...
  24. Gurgeh

    Carnival Row

    I've just realised I'm suffering PTSD, when I see a GoT actor, I feel like the show is about to turn into shit anytime. Especialy when said actor where involved in the shitty arcs, like Indira Varma...
  25. Gurgeh

    The Paranormal, UFO's, and Mysteries of the Unknown

    There is a slim chance that a country in the area stabilize at some point and realise that they are sitting on a tourism gold mine.
  26. Gurgeh

    The Paranormal, UFO's, and Mysteries of the Unknown

    It's sad we there is probably so much to be found in the Sahara, and that we probably have the tech to find a lot of it, but that you literally need an army to protect you if you want to go on the ground. Unlikely that any major work is done there in the next decade.
  27. Gurgeh

    The Summer 2019 Anime Thread

    I've taken a liking for Kanata no Astra, still I'm wondering how long can it average with one twist per episode.
  28. Gurgeh

    Marriage and the Power of Divorce

    How bad are her "fuck patriarchy" friends ? I mean, stuff like femen or vegan activist are documented on video to behave very much like the worst sects, trying to isolate people out of their family & friends to recruit more adepts. If someone like that is undermining you, it can be insanely...
  29. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I'm just going to quote that $25B fund manager, who's making an even stronger claim than me and putting $1B on it : Which is basicaly extremely close to what I've argued so far. You'll even notice that the guy is making the exact same assumption as I am in his second sentence : an individual...
  30. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    And you're right, it is indeed a good way to invest, most certainly. But I naively thought that an investing thread was a thread in which we could discuss investing strategy, not a thread in which every post is answered by : get an ETF.
  31. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I've posted half a dozen article on the topic, that all points at my claims not being outlandish. You've just been screaming "you can't be right" with no argument, but yeah I'm starting to get why this thread isn"t getting much action, it's just to compare the relative size of dicks. All I said...
  32. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    https://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/25/random-stock-picking-will-beat-sp-fund-manager.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2013/01/15/cat-beats-professionals-at-stock-picking/#258e275a621a https://www.ft.com/content/abd15744-9793-11e2-b7ef-00144feabdc0 What I find a bit odd, is that I...
  33. Gurgeh

    Funny, Strange, Random Pics

  34. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Posting a pic of an ugly guy dating a supermodel isn't going to prove that ugly guys usually date supermodels anyway. I don't even understand why that would be even remotely relevant to discussing a strategy. If you want to study the efficiency of a random strategy you obviously need to...
  35. Gurgeh

    Funny, Strange, Random Pics

    The black border dual land you see aren't alpha or beta, they're the french edition, the white bordered ones are unlimited/revised. The only beta on that picture is one of the fireballs. It's funny that it seems my cards might be worth several thousands dollars.
  36. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    That's a cultural thing I guess, I don't feel more confortable posting a pic of my dick than one of my savings or my paycheck. It's kinda taboo in France.
  37. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    That being said, their proof isn't what I would have been doing, and I'll try to find the time this week to change the R code a little bit to actually compare a few indexes with random picks, because a lot of the ETF they're using are a bit too exotic to be pertinent, so the sample of ETFs has...
  38. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    So, whoever has the biggest dick is right ? I'm not posting the absolute value of my investments and I posted enough information about it. Which is why they're comparing the quartiles and median of the return of ETF and random stocks ? You realise that an ETF is also random, right ? So they're...
  39. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    they're using a 300 samples of 2 to 50 random stocks picks, yeah, indeed. I'm not quite sure what's your point.
  40. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    They're godamn using 2 to 50 random stocks... And the difference isn't much.