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Some commentary in the release that can be taken both dovish / hawkish about adjusting policy as necessary. (Ongoing increases as appropriate) The Fed Q&A coming at 2:30pm will see how he responds to these statements.

14:00 *(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE BY 75BPS TO 2.25-2.50% (AS SPECULATED); RECENT INDICATORS OF SPENDING AND PRODUCTION HAVE SOFTENED, THOUGH JOB GAINS ARE ROBUST - IOER raised by 75bps to 2.40% - Vote was unanimous - Inflation remains elevated, reflecting imbalances; Reiterates 'highly...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/us-economy-seen-narrowly-averting-so-called-technical-recession?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

The only thing I would caution is that there has been some shift where things are being bought on bad news. It is expected at this point. I honestly only see a 75bp move out of the Fed, but what we are looking for is the language. If they say they are seeing results from their actions, it will...

Can't trust a guy who's not in dark mode.

MSFT already down over 3% on the day. GOOG down 2.5% today.

Google and Microsoft reporting earnings after hours. Then Fed tomorrow at 2pm. Things are about to get spicy.

Some real data vs feels data. (June: New Homes) 10:00 *(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 590K V 659KE - Median price: $402.4K v $449K prior - Months supply: 9.3 v 7.7 prior - Homes for sale at end of period: 457K v 444K prior - New Home sales by region y/y: Northeast -5.3%, Midwest +42.3%, South...

Trimming some of my SPY 377 buys here at 396. >6% gain Puts me solidly green on the year in long term acct.

Oh I get it, no doubt. It is likely being take as a harbinger of the slowdown economically. If one of the best positioned companies out there is making cuts on staff, doesn't bode well for the pleb companies. Markets are taking this as it should.

Both SPY and QQQ index mirror that AAPL drop.

Let’s at least keep it in theme of the forum. Looks a bit like The Commonlands.

Because they literally have Fed members saying stuff like this today: 08:41 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): 75bps was a 'big move in policy'; Fed wants policy transition to be orderly - Moving too dramatically could undermine positive aspects of the economy and add to uncertainty 09:06...

“Just like owning land.” https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

This is providing some relief. 10:30 *(US) DOE CRUDE: +3.3M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +5.8M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +2.7M V +1ME - Utilization: 94.9% v 94.8%e - Distillate demand -1.0M bpd at 3.4M bpd - Gasoline demand -1.4M bpd at 8.1M bpd

Canada just raised 100bp. Was expected 75bp. Imagine our Fed needs to follow suit (at a minimum).

SPY currently at 377-378.. Considering the low yesterday was 380ish, we really aren't that far down all things considered.

Your move Janet Powell

End of the promised child. Ackman’s Record SPAC to Return Funds After Deal Hunt Fizzled Ackman’s Record SPAC to Return Funds After Deal Hunt Fizzled Funny thing with that block trade, someone made 20c a share on 1.35m shares. Currently trading flat nav of $20.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/more-americans-are-self-employed-than-any-time-since-2008-crisis?sref=9HT8lz40 Many Americans were pushed into trying self-employment when millions of jobs vanished almost overnight in the early weeks of the pandemic. Others have taken the...

10:00 (US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair): Volatility has exposed serious crytpo vulnerabilities; Crypto activities need regulation according to principles of 'like risk, like regulatory outcome' - We cannot wait until crypto ecosystem becomes so large and interconnected that it could pose...

Looking at that chart, my intuition says we've been on on downward streak since early 2000s. The chart is basically showing the boomer generation retiring and Covid basically fast forwarding a lot of retirement plans. Especially if you consider where their investment portfolios went over the...

08:51 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): Fully supports 75bps hike at July meeting - CNBC interview - Tremendous momentum in the economy shows 75bps move won't mean protracted economic damage - On inflation by some estimates, things have not changed at all - I've had to adapt on where I...

Boomer investor move! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/should-i-buy-series-i-bonds-returns-are-high-with-inflation-surging?sref=9HT8lz40 Quite solid zero risk strategy, but $10k limit is lame.

My honest take is that markets have already priced in a 75bp July move. The wildcard is the Q2 earnings misses and revisions down. Suddenly we are potentially still in over-valued markets.

14:00 *(US) FOMC JUNE MEETING MINUTES: MANY FOMC MEMBERS SAW SIGNIFICANT RISK OF 'ENTRENCHED INFLATION'; 'EVEN MORE RESTRICTIVE' POLICY IS POSSIBLE IF ELEVATED INFLATION PERSISTS - Many concerned by long-run price expectations drifting up; Outlook calls for restrictive policy stance -...

Don't worry, they got this: 12:41 (UK) Business Min: We now have 2 coal plants available this winter and are in ongoing negotiations for a third

Atlanta Fed updated that based on ISM / construction data today. 10:00 *(US) JUN ISM MANUFACTURING: 53.0 V 54.5E (2-year low); PRICES PAID: 78.5 V 80.0E Sub Indices: - New Orders Index: 49.2 v 52.0e - Employment: 47.3 v 50.0e - Inventories: 56.0 v 55.9 prior - Backlog of Orders: 53.2 v...

Re Bobby Bonilla: That one is new to me. Good for him!

Full size SPXS, quick!

My sarcasm was lost in text...

Are we finally (officially) in recession? 11:53 (US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: cuts Q2 GDP forecast from +0.3% to -1.0% - Source TradeTheNews

OPEC agreeing to some output hikes as well as a US weekly natural gas inventory data came in higher than expected.

Pick a side dude.. jeez. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-fame-warns-fed-may-alter-course?sref=9HT8lz40

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/meme-stock-probe-finds-robinhood-woes-were-worse-than-it-let-on?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

$3B buy side moc into the close.

nt

(US) Market Trading Hours Summary: Stock rebound finds further legs Summary:Global stocks tracked higher amid continued cooling in interest rate expectations and commodity prices. The final Univ of Michigan reading revised down the 5- to 10-year inflation expectations to 3.1% from 3.3% after...

Today's pop was due to the inflation data released with the Consumer Confidence reports. Ever so slightly lifted inflation expectations and we popped to the upside with volume on the release. I don't expect any of this to hold over the coming weeks. Q2 earnings misses / revised guides can take...

This is typically one of the more hawkish Feds: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/bullard-says-us-recession-unlikely-expansion-is-in-early-stage?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40