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SPY over 2% on the day. Yowza

*Laughs in Carl Icahn*

Posted Weds evening:

Typically agree. However, I am checking my bias at the door today. We have had a very long drawn out drop and we are overdue for an attempted bounce. Bear market bounces can be quite violent to the upside as more pile in worried they missed "the bottom" and fomo sets in and next thing you know...

Some positive news just gave a pre bump. 08:30 *(US) APR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.9% V 0.8%E - Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.7% v 0.7%e - Prior Personal Spending revised higher from 1.1% to 1.4% - Prior Real Personal Spending (PCE) revised higher from 0.2% to...

Friday going into a long weekend. Typically the volume will dry up quickly after the first 30-60mins. Don't go out trying to be a hero today.

4B buy side moc

@Zog Bit of a friendly request / advice. When you post charts, include ticker, timeframe, and price levels. You frequently post charts with 0 reference to any of that and the message becomes a bit meaningless re context.

1.8B buy side moc.

Looks like my bullish index thesis panned out today. Somehow I am down 1.5k trying to short SNOW though. Can't fight the Cathie I guess.

Isn't this simply a form of a HELOC?

16:20 [NVDA] Reports Q1 $1.36 v $1.30e, Rev $8.29B v $8.12Be - Guides Q2 Rev $8.1B +/- 2% v 8.39Be Slightly lowered guide. Still moved the indexes

Market seems to be digesting Fed the same as I. (slightly dovish chance to pause after next two 50bp moves) The only thing to sink us tonight now is NVDA earnings. (SNAP dump 2.0)

Read the Fed notes as nothing new, aside from hinting that a "pause" may be feasible after the 50bp moves of the next two meetings.

Fed minutes notes: 14:00 *(US) FOMC MAY MEETING MINUTES: MOST FED OFFICIALS BACK 50BPS HIKE AT NEXT COUPLE MEETINGS; ALL OFFICIALS SUPPORT PLAN TO BEGIN SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET - All affirmed determination to restore price stability - Many participants judged faster removal of policy...

Keep in mind, NVDA is going to weigh on markets big time. But we are setting up to break and hold this month long downward channel. If NVDA misses, we can have a false break and .. look out below... however, if it holds up, we could get the first real bear market bounce.

We just rejected the top of channel on SPY. Granted it is only over a month, but it has held up top and bottom for this period. We either break above and hold and run, or we are headed back to bottom of channel lows.

In no way am I defending the Fed. They are miles behind the curve. I am merely pointing out Ackman's flawed logic that mysteriously benefits his bet against the markets.

Comments all over it.

Ackman is publicly massively short. He wants to scaremonger (again) the markets into his favor. I find it nonsense he is claiming "the market is doing the Fed's job" by selling off. It is all a part of the tightening cycle. If he thinks the markets are selling now because of inflation and NOT...

And you thought we had issues here in America? https://survivingtomorrow.org/canadas-real-estate-market-is-a-giant-pyramid-scheme-832ea0364c68 Canada’s house prices have grown 800% faster than America’s. The top bank regulator says Canadians have “speculative fever.” Toronto houses are up an...

SNAP -40% Yowza

09:59*(US) MAY RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -9 vs 10 expected 10:00*(US) APR NEW HOME SALES: 591K vs 750K expected Smells like recession to me.

Want an explanation? Money laundering... the end.

UK is calling for 21 day quarantine when around a high risk exposure. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61546480 Eight countries in Europe, including Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK, have reported cases. The WHO said most are mild, but warned the disease can be...

Lockdown 5.0? 10:00 (EU) EU ECDC: Sees high chance for monkeypox virus to spread through close contact

Quoting myself, as this is exactly what I was implying: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/it-may-be-a-bear-market-but-it-s-not-a-panic-that-s-worrisome?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

It's the big boy push to stop from closing on >20% SPY bear market status.

Dead cats & violent bear market bounces are always a thing. Doesn't mean the selling is over longer term. These moves over the long term are never a 1 way ticket. PS. 55% on my calls

4B buy side MOC

Up nearly 40% on AMD call options. 03Jun $95C @2.55 each. Going to close ITM at this rate.

Nevermind the fact that its been shown the bulk of the volume in all that chaos was hedge fund driven. Hedgies killing other hedgies. But, hey.. little man ape story makes for great click bait news coverage!

Thinking more on this as I was ironing my shirt... Let's also think on the gamer side of demand. How much of that 2020/2021 run on NVDA was also fueled by stimulus checks and people being told to stay home and feed off of unemployment benefits? Upgrade cycles: lots of free money was dished out...

Bigger picture question on NVDA: (Let me preface this by stating I lack a fair bit of crypto knowledge) Isn't there supposed to be some big move this year away from hardware mining coins? Think this is an Etherium thing? Point being, if hardware mining is about to fall off a cliff, what affect...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/melvin-capital-to-close-funds-return-cash-to-investors-11652910350?st=pbthmxwfxapm1s8&reflink=article_copyURL_share

16:27 Panama Canal Authority: Vessels are down in May y/y (Translated to: delayed China lockdown impact on supply chains - more to come?)

Cisco beatup 16:05 [CSCO] Reports Q3 $0.87 v $0.86e, Rev $12.8B v $13.3Be; Cuts FY outlook - Guides Q4 $0.76-0.84 v $0.93e, Rev -5.5% to -1% y/y v +6.1%e, non-GAAP gross margin 64-65% - Cuts FY22 $3.29-3.39 v $3.45e, Rev +2-3% y/y (prior: $3.41-3.46, Rev +5.5-6.5% y/y) - Service sales...

Something of note. (SPY) channeling over the last month (Daily chart). This is quite a small timeframe in the scheme of things, but so far has respected it.

Member these days of optimism? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Whatever you want to think about today's selling, it is very important to note that this is still quite an orderly sell. Grinding lower. We haven't even begun to see capitulation and accellerated downside. Just something to be aware of if you are out there thinking of swinging for longs in this...