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I tend to be cynical, so I admit it could just be that, but I think Cramer was once a pretty good analyst who has now become just part of the scam that represents what the modern financial-entertainment complex has turned into.

I saw the quantum FUD and got concerned, so I did some research on this. This issue isn't so much "quantum computing" broadly, it's Shor's Algorithm, a quantum algorithm that can factor large numbers and compute discrete logarithms exponentially faster than classical computers. In theory, a...

I'll see your Cramer and raise you my Cramer:

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating because it’s the single most important point here: Bitcoin has been the best store of value of the modern era. That’s not an opinion. That’s math. You can argue “intrinsic vs. intangible,” or debate philosophy all fucking day long- be my guest...

This is correct. According to the World Gold Council: “Around 10% of gold demand comes from industrial and technology uses (in industries including electronics, dentistry, aerospace and others).” The rest is derived from the same things that make BTC valuable: global consensus it is a store of...

Fair enough- we might have a disagreement on the definition. Or maybe I'm defining it broadly and you're defining it more narrowly. What do you mean when you say fundamentals?

Actually, you started by saying it doesn't have fundamentals, and as the argument progressed you've now settled on that it doesn't have "tangible" value (which I don't at all disagree with, but which functionally means very little).

If the UK could actually censor Bitcoin, they wouldn’t need to cap holdings, they’d just shut it down. Limits are a policy choice; censorship resistance is a property of the network.

That's an easy one: scarcity (programmed supply cap); security budget & immutable ledger; liquidity & global market depth; network affects; portability; censorship resistance etc

You’re actually making my point for me. When you break value into tangible and intangible, Bitcoin clearly falls into the intangible category, right alongside brand equity, IP, patents, network effects, software, and yes, even the premium investors pay over Apple’s book value. Most of modern...

Like Balchunas said, big BTC drawdowns tend to bring BTC haters out of the woodwork 🤷‍♂️ This is personally my 3rd time seeing, it, but I think this happened at least 5 times since 2011. You get a big drop and the naysayers come rushing out to write the obituary. Then, like clockwork, the...

All assets contain subjective value, but they differ in the structure beneath that subjectivity. Apple’s value is anchored in cash flows. Bitcoin’s is anchored in monetary properties. Picasso’s is anchored in cultural demand. Subjective pricing doesn’t make them equivalent, it just makes them...

Flobee already posted a good explanation, but I'd just add that BTC behaves more like a monetary asset than an operating business, so its fundamentals live in economics, not corporate financial metrics. Art is subjective; Bitcoin has measurable on-chain and macro drivers.

Balchunas is one of the more level-headed analysts out there. And no one is going to mistake him for a crypto bro. Here's my personal take on it: BTC isn’t falling because the fundamentals broke, it’s falling because leverage is unwinding across the entire risk complex. Once the forced...

Hey man, facts are facts, no matter who speaks them.

If it makes you feel better, it's not just the US. It's a global problem. I'll spare everyone the nothingstopsthistrain.jpeg, but here you have it.

Taking this opportunity to do housekeeping on some financial stuff, including crypto. Went back through my files and found a "crypto strategy" note I had written for myself in Nov. 2023, shortly after buying some BTC. Hilarious. For the record, the only things I ended up buying were BTC and...

uh oh

They are out of levers. That's the whole point of the "nothing stops this train" meme. It's a runaway train without brakes. This has been the economy for a while now:

From what I gather, his risk exposure to bitcoin and external financing via convertible debt/preferred stock is pretty much at or near its most aggressive level ever. I'm assuming that's what you mean. But I think he's previously been in a more precarious position in some ways- (e.g., 2022...

Tbf, people have been trying to force Saylor to sell BTC for years without result. Certainly not saying it can't happen, but he's faced bigger draw downs than this multiple times before and come out on the other side intact.

Personally I'm thinking of this less as an overall crash and more of a global reset. We've been trading on numbers that have been largely detached from reality for a while now. I think what we are starting to see is part of a big adjustment that will (ultimately) bring things closer to...

Always liked how as soon as her tits come out his brain basically just turns off and he wanders over and grabs one out of pure instinct. No particular plan or purpose. Just sees an amazing pair of tits and must grab. Doesn't matter that he's already grabbed them 100x before. Extremely realistic

I'm not sure anyone here thought btc was immune to manipulation tbh. In an open market, pretty much anything is subject to manipulation.

This chart is wild. Something very unusual happening.

Just put in a bunch of IBIT buy orders down to $40.

Was just going to try and find something like that- thanks.

Don't get me wrong, I'm heavily invested in BTC for that same reason, and I don't plan to sell anytime soon. Over time, BTC easily beats USD when it comes to value/beating inflation. Key words = over time. Was just saying if you had a 12 month horizon, I'd be cautious with BTC now. I mean...

Not giving you advice and also not suggesting that a bear market is here or otw, but understand that if we are in or entering a bear market, it can (and probably will) last longer than 12 months

Was kind of curious about this. I feel like a spot liquidation/rebound would almost certainly happen outside of U.S. market hours. Pretty sure the other big crashes have all occurred in the middle of the night (U.S. time). Not saying it isn't worth putting in some orders- especially if...

Ive got dry powder i was saving for things other than btc, but if we went down to 80k I think I'd have to use it.

Yeah I looked in to inverse Cramer. It didn't fail because Cramer was good. It failed because Cramer makes tons of quick, TV-friendly calls that aren’t meant to be traded mechanically, so trying to short everything he mentions just created a messy, high-turnover portfolio that bled costs. On...

Sure, but the guy does exist, and he is wrong most of the time, and yet he remains a supposedly credible financial source. Those are the things that boggle my mind.

Yeah, I have kind of a similar theory. I think manipulating low-info investor sentiment on behalf of whales has been his true purpose for quite a while now. I'm sure he is handsomely compensated too. So in that way, "the institution" doesn't want to see him go. And he's been such a...

Difficult to understand how he carries any credibility whatsoever. I realize he used to be a sharp market analyst but he's been so bad for so long at this point.

Was going to mention this but didn't want to go on excessively. Zero need to argue the philosophical points about whether BTC is a good store of value or not- you can just let the numbers do the talking. Since Bitcoin's launch, the dollar has LOST about 33% of its purchasing power. Since its...

Could be wrong, but my understanding is that the disparity is at least partially due to the fact that BTC’s 200DMA uses crypto exchange data, updated every day (including weekends), while IBIT’s 200DMA uses market close prices (Mon–Fri only). So IBIT's is “sparser” and often lags BTC’s...

Yeah, not a personal attack on you @Kirun but the strawman analogy is pretty apt. That's what brought me into this discussion in the first place from the main Investment thread. At this point it feels like you’re arguing against a version of the Bitcoin thesis that no one here is actually...

You’re right that governments use inflation, surveillance, and capital controls as policy tools, that’s exactly why Bitcoin has value in the first place. People hedge against tools they expect will continue, not tools they think will end. You can absolutely make BTC inconvenient, but you can’t...