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My argument is this: 1. It's unlikely that Peterbilt, Daimler, Freightliner, Kenworth etc are 10 years away from selling inter-city autonomy commercial vehicles. Perfectly viable in 5 years is fiction. 2. Even if #1 was false, it's unlikely the first few versions over 5-10 years would cost less...

I got to see the delphi system recently. It's very cool. I'm really looking forward to seeing it and all the other systems integrated. I'm betting that the driving behavior of autonomous cars will be very noticeable. My guess is that it will be very cautious.

Cool paper. Mono and stereo cams play a big role in autonomy, but outdoor computer vision (CV) is hard. People don't realize how great our eyes are, with all their cones and rods. The human eye is really amazing and our cameras can beat it in some ways, but in handling variety they are no where...

Don't bet the house on that.

So, it's likely that Ford will be able to do XYZ by 2021 (by XYZ, I mean have a limited release of highly constrained, driverless taxis. Japan will do it in 2020 for their olympic games). But once that occurs, deep market penetration of autonomy at that level won't happen quickly. And further...