The QB market is going to end up hitting its apex, and then take a plunge, just like the stock market. Right now, there is no time better to be a QB in the NFL. The dearth of talent, the disappearance of fullbacks and diminished use of runners in general and the evolving free agent market and salary cap rules have pushed the value of QB's through the roof.
After Sam Bradford was drafted and got a bunch of guaranteed money the league changed the rules on rookie contracts and it altered the way teams approached the draft and moved the numbers on contracts. Fast forward to 2018 and now a guy like Kirk Cousins is worth 35 million dollars a year. After the 2019 season, there is going to be a leveling out of QB contracts and value on the position in general, due to many incoming prospects, the retirement of current great veteran QBs (Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Manning etc) and perhaps rule changes and owners and GMS complaining about the inflated market.
You figure by 2021 Aaron Rodgers is going to be getting close to 40, Matt Ryan is going to be on the wrong side of 30, Cam Newton will be over 30 and probably beat up and no longer the same player, the guys I just mentioned will have retired and there will be only a few guys on massive contracts. There is no way this trend continues and replacement evel QBs will be making 28 million a year and stars 45 million. Eventually it has to reverse itself. The running back will make a return, defenses will get a huge rule change boost, something is going to happen.
In theory your argument holds water, but at the end of the day money talks and bullshit walks. When rookie salaries were ballooning out of control (QB contracts specifically) the league stepped in.
If the Kase Keenums of the world start commanding, and getting 30 million dollars a year, not only is this a gross imbalance, but it starts a creeping effect that begins to disgruntle other players at other positions and what they think they deserve.
I'm not saying the NFL is going to artificially put some kind of cap on QB salary, or even have to make any rule changes, I'm just saying that this trend will start to reverse itself one way or the other.
Just to be clear, at the current rate, in 2021 mid level starting QBs will be averaging over 25 million dollars a season. The top level elite guys will be clocking 40 million a year.
You think that is going to happen no matter what? I doubt it. Guys like LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown are going to be the catalyst that leads to a more balanced market. Skill position players who produce will start holding out and being faggots when they see Kirk Cousins making 79 million dollars a year in 2024.
Top level running backs like Bell and Gurley should be making 22-26 million a year given their short career spans, the demands of the position, and scarcity of those types of players. Same for the top receivers, Gronk, Julio Jones etc should be making Garoppolo money.
I'm saying if the market continues to go in the direction it's going, Gurley SHOULD be making 24 million dollars a year.
What about LeVeon Bell? The guy has produced at an ungodly rate for multiple seasons, he is surely worth 20 plus million a year in 2019.
Basically, my argument is QBs are overpaid while other positions are underpaid, whoever argues against this is not being objective or fair.
QBs are obviously the most important position, so naturally their value should be higher, just not THIS high.
It's funny how people are just glossing over the fact that a guy with 7 career starts is the highest paid player in the league (who happens to be a QB).