AI: The Rise of the Machines... Or Just a Lot of Overhyped Chatbots?

Runnen

Runnen

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Noodleface said:
I work at an enterprise server company
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Noodleface's job, probably.

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rhinohelix

rhinohelix

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Control said:
It wasn't me arguing about the logon device, although lots of shit does want me to essentially logon/verify with my phone now. Just saying that there has been a massive and successful push to move people from owning and running their own software to subscriptions and running it online. Hardware is still here of course, but to the same extent? Not like before I'd argue. If you don't run your own software, your hardware demand goes down obviously. What most people do with a computer can be done on a browser. How many people have a phone as their primary computing device now? Google apps and office 365 cover a vast amount of what people used to buy real computers for. People used to need actual devices for media, youtube, spotify, netflix covers it now. Even with games, console-first dumbed down most system requirements. You used to need a new computer every couple of years to play the newest games. Now my 10 year old computer still does reasonably well. And if you do want to buy a high end machine, it costs 3x what it did a year or two ago. And God knows how much stuff ai is going to replace once relying on it becomes mass-market. Owning and running your own stuff is going to be an entirely foreign concept to the coming generations if it isn't already, outside of very niche groups, and those are going to be limited by the availability/affordability of increasingly niche products.

The controller point is exactly right. I'd love a new guitar hero set and dance pad with modern functionality. But they don't exist outside of small, niche, custom creators.
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Look, I am a huge AI fan, its amazing but there is no doubt we are in bubble territory: Bubbles don't last, and things that can't go on forever, don't go on forever. RAM, hard drives, etc aren't going to be this expensive forever and that was my original point: While it may indeed transition to that eventually, its going to be decades. For future generations, it may be but that's 40+ years in the future. My kids' kids may not sit down with a local desktop, but there's a lot of other things to worry about between here and there.


We've circled around this argument a number of times but its the same thing: AI isn't going to end up replacing people, its going to automate low-end processes and typically going to allow/require more hiring. Switching from horses to cars to led to more employment, not less. This kind of speculation is 50's sci-fi writing: "AI is going to EVERYTHING!!1!" Well, it going to do some things great but probably less than starry-eyed speculation leads one to think. It's just like magic but even magic has limits, and every new tool unlocks productivity that allows people and companies to power new engines of creation. One of the bigger things that is happening right now is how AI is changing software, where Moats and Walls are being torn down because people are being empowered to create things previously gated behind Subs in perpetuity, and these previous entitlements are moving back to local machines.
 
Control

Control

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rhinohelix said:
Look, I am a huge AI fan, its amazing but there is no doubt we are in bubble territory: Bubbles don't last, and things that can't go on forever, don't go on forever. RAM, hard drives, etc aren't going to be this expensive forever and that was my original point: While it may indeed transition to that eventually, its going to be decades. For future generations, it may be but that's 40+ years in the future. My kids' kids may not sit down with a local desktop, but there's a lot of other things to worry about between here and there.


We've circled around this argument a number of times but its the same thing: AI isn't going to end up replacing people, its going to automate low-end processes and typically going to allow/require more hiring. Switching from horses to cars to led to more employment, not less. This kind of speculation is 50's sci-fi writing: "AI is going to EVERYTHING!!1!" Well, it going to do some things great but probably less than starry-eyed speculation leads one to think. It's just like magic but even magic has limits, and every new tool unlocks productivity that allows people and companies to power new engines of creation. One of the bigger things that is happening right now is how AI is changing software, where Moats and Walls are being torn down because people are being empowered to create things previously gated behind Subs in perpetuity, and these previous entitlements are moving back to local machines.
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For this particular topic, I'm barely even talking about AI. How many pieces of software or media have you purchased in the last year, that you actually own? I hate phones and streaming and basically 100% of my screentime is at a destop, and a few days ago I was trying to think of the last piece of software that I bought that wasn't through some sort of an app store that just sells you a subscription or a pull-the-plug-at-our-whim license, and had I really hard time remembering. I hate all of these things, but I still don't actually buy things that I own very often at all. In the last year, basically just books. It's not that I don't use things or spend money on them. It's just that fewer and fewer things are available in an ownable form. Open source is really the last bastion, but that's very niche despite how common it seems to developers.


Noodleface said:
Locally hosted AI models. I work at an enterprise server company
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They're close enough that the extra control makes it worthwhile? I can't run anything too fat locally, but I have a GLM sub I use when tokens are short, and it feels like a pretty big step back. Of course, maybe that's a bad comparison or just a skill issue. Just curious in case I should be poking something I'm not.
 
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