Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Grabbit Allworth · Jun 30, 2021

It could be.

The way I see BTC is that it's standing on a knifes edge -- it's either going to blow up to insane values or completely crash and burn; falling back to its roots as a method to make purchases where other forms of payment aren't viable.

wormie · Jun 30, 2021

Grabbit Allworth said:
am I retarded?

Yes. Put 5k into crypto and the rest into something real that will actually be worth something in ten years.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 30, 2021

Grabbit Allworth said:
It could be.

The way I see BTC is that it's standing on a knifes edge -- it's either going to blow up to insane values or completely crash and burn; falling back to its roots as a method to make purchases where other forms of payment aren't viable.

So 250k on the pass line?

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 30, 2021

If you invested 250k in BTC on Jan 1, you would have $297,675 today
If you invested 250k in MSFT on Jan 1, you would have $298,875 + $1284 in dividends = $300,159 today

Risk vs reward.

swayze22 · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
If you invested 250k in BTC on Jan 1, you would have $297,675 today
If you invested 250k in MSFT on Jan 1, you would have $298,875 + $1284 in dividends = $300,159 today

Risk vs reward.

go back 10 years like you said earlier and let's see

obviously the next ten (likely) won't be that way, but that's the benefit of just picking a random timeframe.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 30, 2021

swayze22 said:
go back 10 years like you said earlier and let's see obviously the next ten (likely) won't be that way, but that's the benefit of just picking a random timeframe.

Year-to-date is generally considered one of the standard timeframes for analysis. 1-year would also be a standard but Coronachan fucked up 2020 enough that its bad data. YTD is after the 2020 gap was filled. If I was trying to cherry pick data to make a point, trust me the comparison wouldn't have been that close.

Flobee · Jun 30, 2021

Nobody is going to be able to give you the conviction regarding BTC being a safe asset to hold for 10 years. Personally I strongly believe it will be, but you'll have to do the work yourself. Thread is full of information on the topic and there is plenty out there.

on a related note, devaluation of the USD over time will escalate the devaluation of all fiat currencies. Bitcoin is the only way out, its the lifeboat

TomServo · Jun 30, 2021

Flobee said:
Nobody is going to be able to give you the conviction regarding BTC being a safe asset to hold for 10 years. Personally I strongly believe it will be, but you'll have to do the work yourself. Thread is full of information on the topic and there is plenty out there.

on a related note, devaluation of the USD over time will escalate the devaluation of all fiat currencies. Bitcoin is the only way out, its the lifeboat

So bitcoin is a solid investment if you live in war torn hellscapes like el salvador or lebanon. lets get some UBI tendies as well.

James · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Year-to-date is generally considered one of the standard timeframes for analysis.

It's nearly completely worthless with crypto, six month timeframes are too short to look at. If you're investing in crypto, you need to look at 4 years minimum.

Flobee · Jun 30, 2021

grumblethorn said:
So bitcoin is a solid investment if you live in war torn hellscapes like el salvador or lebanon. lets get some UBI tendies as well.

We're all headed toward war torn hellscapes on our current path man. If it works for places like this, its gunna work for all of us. You think US/EU monetary policy can shit on the world forever with 0 consequences? We're the worlds cantillionaires but it won't last forever.

"ECB is the only 100% riskless entity"
these clowns are gunna destroy everything

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 30, 2021

James said:
It's nearly completely worthless with crypto, six month timeframes are too short to look at. If you're investing in crypto, you need to look at 4 years minimum.

Ok.

Flobee · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Ok.

I would say James is right about BTC and even ETH perhaps. Those are risky enough, the rest of 'crypto'... yea long term thinking is probably gunna get you rekt. 99% go to 0

James · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Ok.

If you can find a stock that out performs even just BTC on a four year timeframe, I'd be extremely impressed.

Flobee said:
Those are risky enough, the rest of 'crypto'... yea long term thinking is probably gunna get you rekt. 99% go to 0

Bitcoin maximalists would have had you believe that investing into Ethereum four years ago would leave you with nothing, but obviously they're wrong. Long term thinking is really the only surefire way to get rich in crypto.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 30, 2021

James said:
If you can find a stock that out performs even just BTC on a four year timeframe, I'd be extremely impressed.

Bitcoin maximalists would have had you believe that investing into Ethereum four years ago would leave you with nothing, but obviously they're wrong. Long term thinking is really the only surefire way to get rich in crypto.

So you want to use a timeframe when BTC was under 1k as a comparison? I wonder why you chose an odd number like 4 years of data. Ok, I really dont wonder at all.

swayze22 · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Year-to-date is generally considered one of the standard timeframes for analysis. 1-year would also be a standard but Coronachan fucked up 2020 enough that its bad data. YTD is after the 2020 gap was filled. If I was trying to cherry pick data to make a point, trust me the comparison wouldn't have been that close.

I mean i'm half joking but Yes you literally asked Grabbit if he thinks $250k in BTC is better than x,y,z stocks in a 10yr horizon a few posts ago. So I simply took that and put in in historical perspective to say that if you said that in 2011 you would be so far wrong it would be laughable. i only said 10year because you said 10year.

i'm not putting $250k in any one thing.

wormie · Jun 30, 2021

IBM was worth $5.62 in 1962. It has since split 7 times and is worth $145. These are amazing qualified gains.

James · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
So you want to use a timeframe when BTC was under 1k as a comparison? I wonder why you chose an odd number like 4 years of data. Ok, I really dont wonder at all.

It's the standard crypto timeframe. Most people think it has to do with Bitcoin halvenings, some believe there are various other reasons. No one who invested into Bitcoin or Ethereum has ever lost money in a four year timeframe.

Tmac · Jun 30, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Honest question. You truly think investing 250k in BTC is a better 10 year investment than in MSFT, AAPL, QQQ, SPY, FTEC etc?

If the last 10 years is any indicator, the answer is yes.

Gravel · Jun 30, 2021

James said:
It's the standard crypto timeframe. Most people think it has to do with Bitcoin halvenings, some believe there are various other reasons. No one who invested into Bitcoin or Ethereum has ever lost money in a four year timeframe.

Just seems odd to pick four years when the entire thing has been around for just over a decade.

James · Jun 30, 2021

It's been the crypto investment narrative for a while now, there are tons of youtube videos exploring the Bitcoin halvenings if you're interested.

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