Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies
- Thread starter Tripamang
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Soygen
The Dirty Dozen For the Price of One
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Yeah, my IRA and 401k are nuked right now, but I still got another....15 years or so. My crypto investments are miniscule compared to those accounts.
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Rajaah
Honorable Member
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Did all that, the total is $2.75/day for this computer. Kinda disappointed, thought it'd be better with a 3080. I guess $90 a month is nothing to sneeze at but it's teetering at that level where I'm not sure if it's actually worth tying up my computer 24/7 with it. I assume it'd go up to around $6 a day if it goes back into the 60k range or beyond. Might as well get as much mining in as I can before the next halving I guess.
Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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Fantastic, succinct, description of why Proof of Stake can never work, and why Proof of Work is the -only- way to solve the problems that it solves. Timestamped the section on proof of stake but the whole conversation is good. Gigi is a smart man and explains this stuff really well from a technical perspective. So few people have even a basic understanding of the underlying issues that Bitcoin was created to resolve, so they can't see the pitfalls of the "innovations" that altcoins make. They're difficult problems to explain.
PoS discussion timestamped
39:25 - 47:15
PoS discussion timestamped
39:25 - 47:15
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MachRed
Molten Core Raider
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One thing I still don't understand is how is how the btc network will support itself once the mining rewards are diminished to unprofitable levels or reaches the 21mm cap. At that point the only persons incentivized to maintain it would be those holding BTC. Since holders != miners necessarily, I could see the hash rate dropping to levels that make the network vulnerable. Anyone care to explain?
Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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Plenty of smart people have gone into how this would work. I don't have a convenient explanation at hand but with some effort you can find them.
My main point would be that we have, as of right now at current block rates, until September 26, 2139 to figure that out. A problem requiring a solution, but not the highest priority for most of us I assume. Central banking was always a top down centralization of monetary control scam, taking creation of currency power away from elected officials, with much more significant drawbacks, that were pointed out at the very beginning (and voted down at least 3 times before getting through in the US) but we still did that.
One simple explanation would be that by that point mining would be subsidized by general consent or by whatever type of government is running the world at that point. It would be in everyone's interest that the money keeps working. Or maybe we'll have a better system by then... or be living in caves. Who knows.
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Yeah, this dovetails to my real source of woe.
I still believe that at some point the Crypto space in general will bifurcate from the stock market and have it's own dynamics and HOPEFULLY be more resistant to crappy monetary policy management by our governments (which is literally what Bitcoin and a lot of crypto is designed to do). Unfortunately that did NOT happen before this crash. And honestly I don't think we're near the bottom of this one yet. I think we have another double digit drop before hitting bottom. It's going to be dot com more than it will be 2008.....
Tmac
Adventurer
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They won't diminish to unprofitable levels. Transactions will always have a fee. The big difference with crypto in general is that you can immediately pay someone across the globe for a minimal fee.
In today's banking system, this shit takes days, several handshakes in archaic systems, and still costs like 5% of the transaction.
Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Pretty much agree with all of this. I certainly wish a decoupling could have happened before this crash, but I think this crash will ultimately help precipitate the decoupling.
Basically all we are missing is widely spread adoption of crypto. Lack of it is what is preventing the decoupling. The market certainly needs alternative place to put funds when the normal stock market is taking a shit. Crypto is technically an optimal alternative option, but it won't happen until you can do something with crypto other than let it sit on the blockchain or move it around and pay ridiculous transaction fees.
All that said, widespread adoption is obviously coming. And it's coming pretty quickly.
OU Ariakas
Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
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I don't understand why anyone under 60 is worried about their 401k/IRA right now. This is actually good if it is regular investment because you are getting money in cheaper until the markets recover. I am praying that the stocks inside my indexes are paying dividends right now so that money is being reinvested at a low point.
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Soygen
The Dirty Dozen For the Price of One
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Oh yeah. I have my annual contribution maxed on the 401k.
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Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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So long as the unit of account is USD, the 'crypto' market will follow the US market generally. You won't see a true decoupling until value is denominated in BTC. Compare DXY to S&P or crypto market... that's your problem. Its all about the centralized control of the currency, and the debasement that results. It doesn't control every small variation, but it does control the trend.
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I agree with this, which is why I think it will take the USD no longer being the default reserve currency. And when that happens a tectonic shift will happen and all the shit will hit all the fans.
I am betting we will soon see Russia and China both go back to a gold backed currency. India MIGHT go with them. If that happens it's on.
MachRed
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Yea I'm sure the fee to the end user is much cheaper, I just don't understand the incentive for miners to maintain the network if the amount of btc in fiat terms isn't at least break even with operations. My understanding is that the halving will reduce the BTC reward, so the incentive to miners will heavily be determined by the price of btc which would need to increase to accommodate the decrease in btc reward.
Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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No one has a crystal ball, but I think you and Flobee are skipping some steps. I don't think there is going to be a magic moment where BTC suddenly replaces the USD as the reserve currency and crypto decouples from the stock market at the same time. Things tend to be more incremental.
I suspect we will see the following:
1. Crypto becomes more user-friendly and its uses expand, enabling people to do more with it. In short, it becomes much more utilitarian than it is now.
2. As crypto usage increases, it doesn't REPLACE the USD (yet), but it gains a little independence as it becomes less of a speculative investment and more of an item that people can actually use in their daily lives. During this period, we also see a significant reduction in crypto volatility.
3. Eventually, because of its relative independence, its newfound stability, and its utility, people can use it as a hedge to the stock market- kind of like bonds, but better.
4. ??? Maybe at some point it replaces the USD?
Number 4 is pretty far off imo, and the timeline between now and then make the outlook pretty fucking hazy. Either way, I anticipate a fairly long period of coexistence between the USD and crypto, during which the benefits of crypto drive more and more people towards it.well?
Edit: Oh, point being, I think that crypto essentially decouples to one extent or another before it becomes the new Reserve currency. If it ever does.
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One thing to remember is there were literally world wars fought in part over establishing the current international banking system. This idea that the world governments are just going to give up their power over currency is crazy to me, its a power that is probably on par with a governments monopoly on violence in terms of marking what we all consider a functional legitimate government.
Maybe it happens some day but it would be a totally different looking world. And really a stable bitcoin that just holds its value and increases basically on par with inflation isn't what any BTC investor is looking for, it is a speculative asset that people envision for some reason growing in real value, and in the short term maybe it is, but in the long term it is insane to think that is sustainable. A currency pegged at some point in time that just keeps up with inflation, sure maybe I believe that, basically a more fair version of a T bond, but an investment that produces real alpha long term but invests in nothing, produces nothing and has no risk?
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Rajaah
Honorable Member
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Was wondering about that. The rewards are already diminished to where it's barely profitable with a single 3080 and I'm not sure who's really bothering with it outside of enthusiasts and poor folx who could use $3 a day (and are less likely to have a 3080). So basically enthusiasts.
Lanx
<Prior Amod>
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3080 is throttled, you need a 3090 to mine w/o being throttled but there were was is? work arounds to unthrottle up to 80%, but they patch too, you have to google