- 55d 19h 53m
Predictions on the merge? Sell the news or to the moon?
Seriously though, their "merge" is apparently going to finally happen so I expect this run up is a buy the rumor sell the news situation. I'm still not convinced they'll do their merge, even though its a significantly pared down version of the original ETH 2.0 plan.
You see... ETH 2.0 has now been broken into 5 seperate parts starting with the "Merge". You can find the names of these stages below
• The Merge
• The Surge
• The Verge
• The Purge
• The Splurge
Lol, yea that's real. That's why its pumping because they can now apparently deliver 1/5th of their ETH 2.0 promise. By the way, it doesn't solve scaling issues just changes consensus to Proof of Stake. Oh yea... all that current ETH 2.0 thats locked up on the PoS chain is going to unlock so a dump is almost guaranteed IMO. People are ignorant, so price may keep going up over time, but the "Purge" is literally deleting historical data on chain, which defeats the entire purpose of a blockchain. Stupid...
I was expecting ETH to rally on the news, but it seems to have dropped relative to Bitcoin a bit.
Hedge against monetary inflation, not CPI. CPI is a lagging indicator. Bitcoin did exactly what it was supposed to do, people just look at the wrong timeframe. They print trillions and it went from ~6k to ~20k now. Working as intendedOne of the main selling points was the hedge against inflation claim. That was obviously bullshit and so demand isnt there anymore.
CARES Act, is a $2.2 trillion economic stimulus bill passed by the 116th U.S. Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump on March 27, 2020
This is hopium at its finest. If crypto was a hedge against inflation, it would not have cratered when inflation shot up.View attachment 433613
Any other assets sustain a 3x+ appreciation since they started printing trillions? Lets check our traditional inflation hedges:
Bonds - nope
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Gold - nope
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S&P - nope, certainly the closest though
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Saying that Bitcoin failed as an inflation hedge is a poor argument. Government printed money via CARES, PPP, etc and risk assets reacted. Bitcoin reacted the fastest, was the most volatile, and had the best return... even after falling 71%. Nobody bought Bitcoin when the printing started, held it, and came out a loser due to inflation.
Flobee is actually right here, as much as it pains me to say that.This is hopium at its finest. If crypto was a hedge against inflation, it would not have cratered when inflation shot up.
You're showing a lack of understanding as to the difference between monetary inflation and the consumer price index. The lag between the two can be understood by the Cantillon Effect. Crypto is not a hedge against inflation, because crypto does not have a limited supply. Bitcoin is and does.This is hopium at its finest. If crypto was a hedge against inflation, it would not have cratered when inflation shot up.
Cantillon effect describes the uneven expansion of the amount of money. If a central bank pumps more money into the economy, the resulting increase in prices does not happen evenly. The Austrian economist Friedrich August von Hayek compared this monetary expansion with honey. If you pour honey into a cup, it won’t spread out evenly. It will clump in the middle of the cup first before spreading out.
Same with money: in case of a monetary expansion, the ones who profit from it are the ones who are close to the money. “Close to the money” in this case means everyone who can access the money right at the beginning, i.e. big companies, banks, etc. They get loans and make investments. Prices then start to rise even though the rest of the population has not received any of the new money yet. This part of the population usually is not the one with too much money. Nonetheless, they have to pay the higher prices even though they have not profited from the increase in money at all. And they will never profit from it in the same way as the ones who received the money first. The result is a redistribution from the poor to the rich.
The dollar has not gained value since the spending stopped (did it really?). Under your hypothesis crypto should not have gained any value but it should not have lost any either yet it has. Saying bitcoin is a hedge in the face of a drop of 70% is silly.Flobee is actually right here, as much as it pains me to say that.
Bitcoin's price rose as M2 money supply skyrocketed. CPI is a meaningless trailing indicator. The "inflation" happened long before the CPI readings rose, it just took a long time for the expanded M2 money supply to overcome the resistance of price memory. The price of crypto tanked once the government actually committed to stopping printing money (did not commit to stop spending money but that's another story.)
This chart is the only one you need to understand everything that's happened with finance and crypto in the past 2.5ish years:
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