Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Arden

Arden

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Seananigans said:
What does any of that matter? None of that changes the base foundation that Bitcoin is built on. And who the fuck is basing anything on “those coins being permanently dormant?” Everyone knows there are (will be) 21 million bitcoin. Nobody I have ever encountered has suggested their strategy involves an assumption that one million of them stay dormant. I really don’t understand your point of view.
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Markets rely on psychology as much as math. No one says their whole strategy is based on Satoshi’s coins staying dormant, but those coins have been untouched for 15+ years and are generally treated as lost. That absolutely affects perceived circulating supply and investor confidence.

If those wallets suddenly spring to life, it’s not just about 1M BTC existing (we already know that), it’s about 1M BTC potentially being moved, sold, or used to influence the market.

There would definitely be a crash. How much of a crash and how permanent it is would depend on what happens after the wallets go active. If they were to dump, that would definitely be catastrophic for btc.

To be clear, this issue has been on my radar for years and I'm more of a btc bull now than ever. But I'm also realistic enough to consider the risks of the ongoing assumption that Satoshi is dead and his coins are forever gone.

If you want the cynical perspective- Satoshi pretending he is dead and patiently waiting for btc to take over the world is a genius fucking move.
 
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Seananigans

Seananigans

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Arden said:
Markets rely on psychology as much as math. No one says their whole strategy is based on Satoshi’s coins staying dormant, but those coins have been untouched for 15+ years and are generally treated as lost. That absolutely affects perceived circulating supply and investor confidence.

If those wallets suddenly spring to life, it’s not just about 1M BTC existing (we already know that), it’s about 1M BTC potentially being moved, sold, or used to influence the market.

There would definitely be a crash. How much of a crash and how permanent it is would depend on what happens after the wallets go active. If they were to dump, that would definitely be catastrophic for btc.

To be clear, this issue has been on my radar for years and I'm more of a btc bull now than ever. But I'm also realistic enough to consider the risks of the ongoing assumption that Satoshi is dead and his coins are forever gone.

If you want the cynical perspective- Satoshi pretending he is dead and patiently waiting for btc to take over the world is a genius fucking move.
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From my point of view, “market” isn’t something that applies to Bitcoin. But I can see how you could have this perspective given the clownish absurdity of the status quo.
 
tugofpeace

tugofpeace

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Seananigans said:
From my point of view, “market” isn’t something that applies to Bitcoin. But I can see how you could have this perspective given the clownish absurdity of the status quo.
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So if tomorrow we hit hyperinflation, you don't think bitcoin price will adjust to reflect that?
 
Tuco

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Arden said:
Because it would destroy the core assumption that those coins are permanently dormant. None of the coins attributed to Satoshi have *ever* been spent or moved. The sudden availability of up to 1 million BTC (about 5% of total supply) could trigger panic selling, crash the price, and undermine trust in BTCs decentralization and stability.

It would raise a ton of questions like whether Satoshi is alive, if his stash has been hacked, etc.
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Nope. Hodlers have watched BTC fluctuate so dramatically that a sudden sell-off of 5% of the supply would just be the latest in many changes in price.

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Seananigans

Seananigans

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Blazin said:
Markets simply are all possible and existing participants. There is no outside of markets
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Which market is being referenced in this case? Bitcoin is a singular thing, there is no alternative. The crypto market? I guess I’ll grant you that for anyone only using bitcoin as a speculative gambling vehicle like the rest of that “crypto” garbage, sure maybe they will move elsewhere.

If you’re suggesting there’s a coherent market for “store of value,” then.. ok, but nothing Arden Arden is talking about changes bitcoin’s place as the superior store of value based on sound money principles. That’s what I’ve been saying.

I cannot see any way in which what’s being discussed is not completely irrelevant. An additional portion of existing bitcoin being potentially moved around does not, at all, affect the underlying principles suggesting bitcoin is a superior store of value.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Seananigans said:
Which market is being referenced in this case? Bitcoin is a singular thing, there is no alternative. The crypto market? I guess I’ll grant you that for anyone only using bitcoin as a speculative gambling vehicle like the rest of that “crypto” garbage, sure maybe they will move elsewhere.

If you’re suggesting there’s a coherent market for “store of value,” then.. ok, but nothing Arden Arden is talking about changes bitcoin’s place as the superior store of value based on sound money principles. That’s what I’ve been saying.

I cannot see any way in which what’s being discussed is not completely irrelevant. An additional portion of existing bitcoin being potentially moved around does not, at all, affect the underlying principles suggesting bitcoin is a superior store of value.
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In this instance the bitcoin market is anyone who owns bitcoin or could own bitcoin . When we talk of supply and demand for anything the source of that supply and demand is this nebulous term "market" which comprises all possible sources of supply and demand for the thing in question.

What I'm not quite sure of is in what way you are using the term and what it means to you. That might help us understand what you are meaning. Bitcoin is so obviously at the whims of the market it's like saying water is wet so you are likely trying to convey something else.
 
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