Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Sanrith Descartes

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"BTC is done 1% today."
"The value of Picaso paintings is down 1% today"

These two statements are similar. Neither can be sold for the value if its individual components that make up its "value" (book value).

"BTC is up 1% today."
"AAPL is up 1% today."

These two statements are not similar. One can be sold for its book value which is roughly $74 billion as of today. The other has no components that make up its value.
 

Sheriff Cad

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Yes that's exactly what has happened, the dollar has been going up since BTC weakness began.

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Sanrith Descartes

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What are you talking about? Nobody mentioned Blockchain technology... however you do know that "Blockchain Technology" IS bitcoin right? Like... any other "blockchain" is just copying the way that Bitcoin creates blocks and changing how it works. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say... you should REALLY go read the Bitcoin whitepaper... its 9 pages, not all that hard to understand and you clearly have 0 understanding of what you're talking about.

Also the work fundamentals applies to more than just companies lol

So explain to me why the "value" of BTC has gone down 36% in 5 weeks. Aside from "there are more sellers than buyers".
 

Flobee

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So explain to me why the "value" of BTC has gone down 36% in 5 weeks. Aside from "there are more sellers than buyers".
The USD value of BTC has gone down. I would guess due to liquidity issues in the traditional market and Bitcoin market is the most open and liquid market in the world that trades 24/7 but thats a guess. I'm not sure why you're taking this approach honestly you're not really making a coherent argument.
 

Kirun

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BTC isn’t falling because the fundamentals broke, it’s falling because leverage is unwinding across the entire risk complex. Once the forced liquidations finish, the selling pressure evaporates, spot demand steps back in, and BTC should snap back fast and hard, likely to new highs.

In fact, the macro environment is actually getting BTC-friendlier every day, with higher inflation, more fiscal spending, and limited room for central banks to tighten all support a rebound once the leverage flush is over.
That's the standard "it's just leverage unwinding" cope, but it ignores the underlying issue: the only reason Bitcoin trades like a high-beta risk asset is because that's exactly what it is. The same liquidity cycle that props up equities, tech, and real estate props up BTC. When credit tightens, everything built on excess liquidity gets hit. It's not just some temporary quirk, it's structural.

If Bitcoin were truly the uncorrelated hedge it's marketed as, it wouldn't crater every time global risk comes off. The leverage argument actually proves the opposite - that the market for BTC depends on leverage and liquidity flow, not on its "fundamentals."

And sure, inflation and fiscal expansion make a nice macro story, but inflation also means real yields rise, regulatory scrutiny tightens, and capital flees volatility. "Snap back fast and hard" only happens if risk appetite returns, which makes Bitcoin less a hedge against fiat decay and more a speculative thermometer for it.

It's falling because Bitcoin's real fundamental has always been liquidity, not ideology.
The network is functioning, blocks are being made, transactions are clearing. Fundamentals in this context is not what you're referring to. The point is that there is nothing wrong with Bitcoin that is causing the price to go down, its a tradfi issue that is effecting the USD price.

If you don't think uncensorable instant settlement anywhere in the world, permissionlessly, and nearly free has value then I don't know what to tell you other than you're wrong. If you know anything about money transmission rails, and I know you do, you know just how valuable that is.
You're mixing up protocol fundamentals with market fundamentals. Yes, the Bitcoin network is producing blocks. Yes, nodes are online. Yes, transactions clear. Nobody is claiming the protocol is broken.

But "the protocol still functions" has nothing to do with why the price moves. If price only reflected whether the chain was operational, Bitcoin would trade flat forever. Markets care about liquidity, flows, leverage, and risk appetite, not whether SHA-256 is running smoothly today. Calling it "a TradFi issue" is basically admitting the point that Bitcoin trades like a high-beta liquidity asset. If traditional risk markets seize up, BTC bleeds with them. That is a fundamental, just not the technical one you prefer talking about.
 
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Arden

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"BTC is done 1% today."
"The value of Picaso paintings is down 1% today"

These two statements are similar. Neither can be sold for the value if its individual components that make up its "value" (book value).

"BTC is up 1% today."
"AAPL is up 1% today."

These two statements are not similar. One can be sold for its book value which is roughly $74 billion as of today. The other has no components that make up its value.

All assets contain subjective value, but they differ in the structure beneath that subjectivity. Apple’s value is anchored in cash flows. Bitcoin’s is anchored in monetary properties. Picasso’s is anchored in cultural demand. Subjective pricing doesn’t make them equivalent, it just makes them all part of human markets.
 
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Flobee

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You're mixing up protocol fundamentals with market fundamentals. Yes, the Bitcoin network is producing blocks. Yes, nodes are online. Yes, transactions clear. Nobody is claiming the protocol is broken.

But "the protocol still functions" has nothing to do with why the price moves. If price only reflected whether the chain was operational, Bitcoin would trade flat forever. Markets care about liquidity, flows, leverage, and risk appetite, not whether SHA-256 is running smoothly today. Calling it "a TradFi issue" is basically admitting the point that Bitcoin trades like a high-beta liquidity asset. If traditional risk markets seize up, BTC bleeds with them. That is a fundamental, just not the technical one you prefer talking about.
No, I'm not mixing anything. My point is that Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes is mixing it up lol. He was responding to a statement that Bitcoin's fundamentals have not changed, and they haven't. What you guys are continually failing to understand that USD price is dictated by the USD! It has absolutely nothing to do with Bitcoin. You're trading Bitcoin for USD so price is to oversimplify it Bitcoin/USD. The USD is what is moving here not the Bitcoin... thats the, obviously incredibly oversimplified, point.

If you thought of Bitcoin price as something closer to FX trading you'd be closer to reality than trying to compare it to Apple

EDIT:

If Bitcoin were truly the uncorrelated hedge
Nobody is saying that
 

Sanrith Descartes

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The USD value of BTC has gone down. I would guess due to liquidity issues in the traditional market and Bitcoin market is the most open and liquid market in the world that trades 24/7 but thats a guess. I'm not sure why you're taking this approach honestly you're not really making a coherent argument.
My question makes total sense, its just you cant come up with an answer that isn't "people are selling". That's the point. This is because there is no real answer because there are no financial fundamentals to crypto. Dollar strength/weakness could be a factor but a 36% drop fact? Hmm.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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That's the standard "it's just leverage unwinding" cope, but it ignores the underlying issue: the only reason Bitcoin trades like a high-beta risk asset is because that's exactly what it is. The same liquidity cycle that props up equities, tech, and real estate props up BTC. When credit tightens, everything built on excess liquidity gets hit. It's not just some temporary quirk, it's structural.

If Bitcoin were truly the uncorrelated hedge it's marketed as, it wouldn't crater every time global risk comes off. The leverage argument actually proves the opposite - that the market for BTC depends on leverage and liquidity flow, not on its "fundamentals."

And sure, inflation and fiscal expansion make a nice macro story, but inflation also means real yields rise, regulatory scrutiny tightens, and capital flees volatility. "Snap back fast and hard" only happens if risk appetite returns, which makes Bitcoin less a hedge against fiat decay and more a speculative thermometer for it.

It's falling because Bitcoin's real fundamental has always been liquidity, not ideology.

You're mixing up protocol fundamentals with market fundamentals. Yes, the Bitcoin network is producing blocks. Yes, nodes are online. Yes, transactions clear. Nobody is claiming the protocol is broken.

But "the protocol still functions" has nothing to do with why the price moves. If price only reflected whether the chain was operational, Bitcoin would trade flat forever. Markets care about liquidity, flows, leverage, and risk appetite, not whether SHA-256 is running smoothly today. Calling it "a TradFi issue" is basically admitting the point that Bitcoin trades like a high-beta liquidity asset. If traditional risk markets seize up, BTC bleeds with them. That is a fundamental, just not the technical one you prefer talking about.
I can't believe I am agreeing with Kirun Kirun . Time to buy a PowerBall ticket.
 
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Flobee

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My question makes total sense, its just you cant come up with an answer that isn't "people are selling". That's the point. This is because there is no real answer because there are no financial fundamentals to crypto. Dollar strength/weakness could be a factor but a 36% drop fact? Hmm.
I'm failing to understand why the burden of explanation is falling on me like its some sort of killing point? Obviously Bitcoin isn't a company and doesn't have earnings, I just don't understand your approach here man.

You said this:

What fundamentals? The BTC income statement? Balance sheet? Book value. Crypto doesn't have fundamentals. It has a segment of the population who believe it has value. It can't be sold for its assets, AR and book of business. Its like art. its worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. It doesn't have fundamentals.

And I responded with a clarification on what was meant by fundamentals in Arden Arden point. Your post in nonsensical with an understanding of what was actually being said. You're misapplying the word fundamentals in the context intended. If you point is that it doesn't have a balance sheet... I mean yea good job man, you nailed it. You're just participating in your own conversation with... I dunno who, Kirun I guess lol
 

Arden

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Like Balchunas said, big BTC drawdowns tend to bring BTC haters out of the woodwork 🤷‍♂️

This is personally my 3rd time seeing, it, but I think this happened at least 5 times since 2011.

You get a big drop and the naysayers come rushing out to write the obituary. Then, like clockwork, the tide comes back in and BTC goes way up to a new high, and most of the haters disappear again until the next cycle. Kind of fun to watch at this point.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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All assets contain subjective value, but they differ in the structure beneath that subjectivity. Apple’s value is anchored in cash flows. Bitcoin’s is anchored in monetary properties. Picasso’s is anchored in cultural demand. Subjective pricing doesn’t make them equivalent, it just makes them all part of human markets.
This literally sounds like a Kamala speech. How many cool words can I use.

In finance we have tangible and intangible value. Tangible value can be thought to be measured as book value. The property, inventory chairs, desks etc. All of it can be sold for dollars. Intangible value is based on goodwill, brand value, patents, etc.

"Cultural demand"? Seriously? A piece of art only has value to the buyers that they assign it. Hmm, sort of like NFTs? Remember those? I can have a print of a Picasso in my house. Pay $50 for it. I bought BTC a few years ago for under $30k. That same exact BTC, whomever owns it now, has changed in exactly zero ways. Aside from being worth $85k now.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Like Balchunas said, big BTC drawdowns tend to bring BTC haters out of the woodwork 🤷‍♂️

This is personally my 3rd time seeing, it, but I think this happened at least 5 times since 2011.

You get a big drop and the naysayers come rushing out to write the obituary. Then, like clockwork, the tide comes back in and BTC goes way up to a new high, and most of the haters disappear again until the next cycle. Kind of fun to watch at this point.
Bro, I don't hate BTC at all. I have bought it, I have sold it and at this very minute I have written puts in play for contracts in IBIT.

What I also am not is a crypto "true believer". Its an instrument that gets traded. Nothing more. Its not a religion for me. I don't believe that Bitcoin Jesus is gonna save the world. I examine it like I examine everything else I trade. Without emotion or attachment. Or at least as little as I can.
 
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Arden

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This literally sounds like a Kamala speech. How many cool words can I use.

In finance we have tangible and intangible value. Tangible value can be thought to be measured as book value. The property, inventory chairs, desks etc. All of it can be sold for dollars. Intangible value is based on goodwill, brand value, patents, etc.

"Cultural demand"? Seriously? A piece of art only has value to the buyers that they assign it. Hmm, sort of like NFTs? Remember those? I can have a print of a Picasso in my house. Pay $50 for it. I bought BTC a few years ago for under $30k. That same exact BTC, whomever owns it now, has changed in exactly zero ways. Aside from being worth $85k now.

You’re actually making my point for me. When you break value into tangible and intangible, Bitcoin clearly falls into the intangible category, right alongside brand equity, IP, patents, network effects, software, and yes, even the premium investors pay over Apple’s book value. Most of modern finance is intangible.

Bitcoin isn’t a chair or a building. It’s an intangible monetary network. But that puts it in the same asset bucket as a huge portion of modern market value, not in some special category of ‘worthless unless you can touch it.’”
 

Khane

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Trying to explain economics to BTC true believers is a fool's errand.

These people think it is somehow untethered to financial systems and a safehaven for end times. I don't understand how anyone can believe that when the only reason its value has skyrocketed is because institutions and now even governments have legitimized it BY HOARDING IT.

Fucking lol.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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You’re actually making my point for me. When you break value into tangible and intangible, Bitcoin clearly falls into the intangible category, right alongside brand equity, IP, patents, network effects, software, and yes, even the premium investors pay over Apple’s book value. Most of modern finance is intangible.

Bitcoin isn’t a chair or a building. It’s an intangible monetary network. But that puts it in the same asset bucket as a huge portion of modern market value, not in some special category of ‘worthless unless you can touch it.’”
Intangibles isn't a catch-all. What exactly are the intangibles that provide a single BTC with $85k of value?
 

Arden

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Intangibles isn't a catch-all. What exactly are the intangibles that provide a single BTC with $85k of value?

That's an easy one: scarcity (programmed supply cap); security budget & immutable ledger; liquidity & global market depth; network affects; portability; censorship resistance etc
 

Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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Trying to explain economics to BTC true believers is a fool's errand.

These people think it is somehow untethered to financial systems and a safehaven for end times. I don't understand how anyone can believe that when the only reason its value has skyrocketed is because institutions and now even governments have legitimized it BY HOARDING IT.

Fucking lol.
BTC is like communism. Its a religion to some folks. BTC Jesus.

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Sanrith Descartes

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That's an easy one: scarcity (programmed supply cap); security budget & immutable ledger; liquidity & global market depth; network affects; portability; censorship resistance etc
Now value them. Show a definable viable value to each one. For example, a patent can be licensed to others and generate revenue that can be calculated.
 

Flobee

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Trying to explain economics to BTC true believers is a fool's errand.

These people think it is somehow untethered to financial systems and a safehaven for end times. I don't understand how anyone can believe that when the only reason its value has skyrocketed is because institutions and now even governments have legitimized it BY HOARDING IT.

Fucking lol.
Literally nobody believes that.

If you're talking about the USD dollar price of an asset, it by definition is "tethered" to the financial system. The ENTIRE point of Bitcoin is that it, as a monetary network, has the ability to work outside of and potentially even replace the current monetary system in -very- specific ways.

Setting aside that point we'll use a very simple example. If you have a cow and I have some Bitcoin, we can exchange and no amount of debanking or government sanctions can stop that. Now if Iran wants missiles and Russia has missiles to sell, they can transact in a number of ways, but it MUST be outside the dollar system. The -only- way that transaction can occur without the need of trust between Russia and Iran in this example is Bitcoin. Thats the value proposition. Thats why Bitcoin has value.

Another easy example, I live in Argentina and my government wants me to hold its worthless currency while they devalue it. I can buy Bitcoin and opt out, similar to how they buy USD but better because BTC is and will continue doing the same thing to USD.

You can use those examples above and apply it in all sorts of places. Remittance payments? Well I could pay Western Union 20% or pay sub $1 fee via Bitcoin. Buying from the local farmers market? Well I can pay cash, but if I want to pay electronically I either have to use a closed system (Paypal, venmo, whatever) which is fine unless somebody decides that I shouldn't be allowed to trade locally, or I can use Bitcoin.

If you don't understand why Bitcoin has value its probably because you're an American boomer and can't get outside of your own living circumstances to see how uncensorable, trustless payments have value. I know thats not the narrative on Fox News about Bitcoin, but its the true value of it.

If you're going to condescend because you think you're smarter than a "true believer" then all I can do is lol. You are parading your ignorance as a sign of you superiority. There is only one Lord.