Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies
- Thread starter Tripamang
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Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I hold some as part of my "cash" portfolio. Its tempting to scoop it up and enjoy the yield but there is a reason its only part of my cash and not all of it
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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Lot of whales buying. So funny. Saylor sells 32 BTC and causes a huge panic, the price crashes, and then he scoops up 1550 BTC at a huge discount a week later.
Sheep will be sheep and wolves will be wolves, I guess.
Fwiw, I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We are still tracking the 4 year cycle pretty closely at this point, and if we continue to do so we still have a bit of the doldrums left.
Sheep will be sheep and wolves will be wolves, I guess.
Fwiw, I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We are still tracking the 4 year cycle pretty closely at this point, and if we continue to do so we still have a bit of the doldrums left.
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Haus
I am Big Balls!
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Yeah, I was looking at this the other day :
2019 bottom trough.... ~4100
2023 bottom Trough..... ~16600 (almost exactly 4x 2019)
2026 has already hit and slightly dipped under ~67500 (4x 2023 bottom)
Would shock me if we drifted a little further down... also wouldn't shock me if we fluttered around this until official "bottom day"
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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The current drawdown is the shallowest on record relative to prior cycles, roughly 41% off the all-time high, compared to 84% after 2017 and 77% after 2021. If the institutional absorption thesis is correct, the floor keeps rising. But Id be surprised if it is as high as 41%. Could be wrong tho
.Like I said a few weeks ago this is the third downturn phase I've been through at this point.
Each time the same idiots gleefully celebrate the demise of Bitcoin and the same terrorized sheep sell, and the same wolves snatch up the mutton while it's on sale.
And then it repeats.
Honestly, it's incredible to me how stupid some people are.
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Haus
I am Big Balls!
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If you do the "high to low"....The current drawdown is the shallowest on record relative to prior cycles, roughly 41% off the all-time high, compared to 84% after 2017 and 77% after 2021. If the institutional absorption thesis is correct, the floor keeps rising. But Id be surprised if it is as high as 41%. Could be wrong tho
2017-2019 - 83% drop
2021-2023 - 77% drop
So if you take that to mean each cycle is dropping 6% less than the previous off the top... Then we're looking at about a 70% off high drop.
So 2025-2026 - Estimated 70% - Puts the bottom at around $36k
That would be considered a BTCpocolypse. Do you want to give it an extra 10% off the drop for institutional adoption? Then you're at around $50k floor.
I'd admit that if it dropped to 50k and showed any signs of forming a bottom I'd probably sink a bit in. Right now I'm on the sidelines for all crypto until I see a reason to re-engage.
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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This is pretty much exactly where I am. But the ETFs are new enough and significant enough to make me feel not so confident. I will absolutely sink some funds if we get down to 50K but I'll probably take some bites before then too honestly. I rarely try to catch the absolute bottom because I'm not good enough at this stuff.