Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies
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Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I hold some as part of my "cash" portfolio. Its tempting to scoop it up and enjoy the yield but there is a reason its only part of my cash and not all of it
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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Lot of whales buying. So funny. Saylor sells 32 BTC and causes a huge panic, the price crashes, and then he scoops up 1550 BTC at a huge discount a week later.
Sheep will be sheep and wolves will be wolves, I guess.
Fwiw, I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We are still tracking the 4 year cycle pretty closely at this point, and if we continue to do so we still have a bit of the doldrums left.
Sheep will be sheep and wolves will be wolves, I guess.
Fwiw, I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We are still tracking the 4 year cycle pretty closely at this point, and if we continue to do so we still have a bit of the doldrums left.
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Haus
I am Big Balls!
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Yeah, I was looking at this the other day :
2019 bottom trough.... ~4100
2023 bottom Trough..... ~16600 (almost exactly 4x 2019)
2026 has already hit and slightly dipped under ~67500 (4x 2023 bottom)
Would shock me if we drifted a little further down... also wouldn't shock me if we fluttered around this until official "bottom day"
Arden
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The current drawdown is the shallowest on record relative to prior cycles, roughly 41% off the all-time high, compared to 84% after 2017 and 77% after 2021. If the institutional absorption thesis is correct, the floor keeps rising. But Id be surprised if it is as high as 41%. Could be wrong tho
.Like I said a few weeks ago this is the third downturn phase I've been through at this point.
Each time the same idiots gleefully celebrate the demise of Bitcoin and the same terrorized sheep sell, and the same wolves snatch up the mutton while it's on sale.
And then it repeats.
Honestly, it's incredible to me how stupid some people are.
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Haus
I am Big Balls!
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If you do the "high to low"....The current drawdown is the shallowest on record relative to prior cycles, roughly 41% off the all-time high, compared to 84% after 2017 and 77% after 2021. If the institutional absorption thesis is correct, the floor keeps rising. But Id be surprised if it is as high as 41%. Could be wrong tho
2017-2019 - 83% drop
2021-2023 - 77% drop
So if you take that to mean each cycle is dropping 6% less than the previous off the top... Then we're looking at about a 70% off high drop.
So 2025-2026 - Estimated 70% - Puts the bottom at around $36k
That would be considered a BTCpocolypse. Do you want to give it an extra 10% off the drop for institutional adoption? Then you're at around $50k floor.
I'd admit that if it dropped to 50k and showed any signs of forming a bottom I'd probably sink a bit in. Right now I'm on the sidelines for all crypto until I see a reason to re-engage.
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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This is pretty much exactly where I am. But the ETFs are new enough and significant enough to make me feel not so confident. I will absolutely sink some funds if we get down to 50K but I'll probably take some bites before then too honestly. I rarely try to catch the absolute bottom because I'm not good enough at this stuff.
Flobee
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Jysin
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Title: HALF OF BITCOIN SUPPLY STILL IN LOSSES
Around 10 million bitcoin, roughly half of circulating supply, is currently underwater, Cex. io says.
Despite stabilization near $60,000, unrealized losses remain at levels seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
The firm warns bitcoin may not have reached its bottom yet, though ETF outflows have slowed. Bitcoin recently traded down 1.1% at $65,724.
Source: Newsquawk - Fin X
Around 10 million bitcoin, roughly half of circulating supply, is currently underwater, Cex. io says.
Despite stabilization near $60,000, unrealized losses remain at levels seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
The firm warns bitcoin may not have reached its bottom yet, though ETF outflows have slowed. Bitcoin recently traded down 1.1% at $65,724.
Source: Newsquawk - Fin X
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Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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STRC hit $79 today and I scooped up a little pile in my cash account. I don't see a path for STRC to explode, which could be wrong, so I figure that potential 20-30% yield was worth some risk on a little $$$.
In other news...
AI absolutely destroying
coins with hacks on "smart" contracts
Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Clickbait title, but does address the move MSTR made to sure up its common stock + preferreds. IMO the signal here is the points made ~4:20 in the video around shifts in how the USD is structured. This is the REAL fight happening right now and, so far as I can understand, will determine how the US comes out of the monetary tailspin we've been in. I'll link a second video which is an interview with Matt Dines where he goes a lot deeper on this topic and its a really interesting listen.
My opinion on the inevitable massive future inflation event has shifted some as I've learned more about what Trump and Bessent are seemingly trying to do with the Dollar. If they succeed I think there is a decent chance that a majority of the inflation has already happened (and is happening) as USD rails get shifted, we have an "inside" and "outside" dollar, similar to how China handles on-shore and off-shore Yuan, and the on-shore dollar gets backed with real assets. Seriously if this all sounds completely foreign to you give this second video a listen and start to look into what the administration is very openly telling us they're trying to do. Fascinating stuff. Also probably buy some Bitcoin and hold it in self custody ̄\_(ツ)_/ ̄
My opinion on the inevitable massive future inflation event has shifted some as I've learned more about what Trump and Bessent are seemingly trying to do with the Dollar. If they succeed I think there is a decent chance that a majority of the inflation has already happened (and is happening) as USD rails get shifted, we have an "inside" and "outside" dollar, similar to how China handles on-shore and off-shore Yuan, and the on-shore dollar gets backed with real assets. Seriously if this all sounds completely foreign to you give this second video a listen and start to look into what the administration is very openly telling us they're trying to do. Fascinating stuff. Also probably buy some Bitcoin and hold it in self custody ̄\_(ツ)_/ ̄
Tuco
I got Tuco'd!
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