GoT - Is Over, Post Your Drogon Sightings

wormie_sl said:

Yeah you are right. The Tyrels, who have everything to lose (not to mention the stupidity of sneaking the poison in through that necklace. What, the fucking TSA is frisking the grandmother of the queen upon entry to the wedding?), killing Joffrey is the more obvious possibility than Cersei or Tyrion or Sansa offing the little shit.

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I'm not going to say yes or no, just that you should learn what Ockham's razor means. It shouldn't be applied in this situation, by you at least.

wormie_sl said:

What power do they have now?

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Are we watching the same show? The people of King's Landing love the Tyrells more than the Lannisters mainly because of Margaery, their army saved the Lannisters and the entire city from Stannis and their money saved the Throne from going bankrupt. The Tyrells right now are vying to be the most powerful house in Westeros.

Olenna realizes that derpy Tommen is a lot more like her husband, Lord Tyrell. She basically runs Highgarden. Joffrey could have been coaxed to do certain things early on, but the power of sex would quickly fade and Marg wouldn't have had as much power. Tommen allows her to rule the kingdom if he can be dominated like Olenna's husband.

wormie_sl said:

What power do they have now? The Lannisters have another male child that can succeed to the throne. Also, what the hell is the point of killing Joffrey on the wedding day? Also why the hell would they sneak the poison in through Sansa when they could just walk in with it?

The symbolism of killing Joff at the wedding is revenge for Robb so it was one of the Stark supporters which Tyrells are not. Or it was Cersei who decided she wants to keep power for a while longer. I think its the latter.

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It is like you are ignoring all character traits and blindly throwing shit against the wall.

Sansa -- too fucking stupid to pull off anything of this magnitude
Tyrion -- is not a killer and, despite being a Lannister outcast, takes pride in his house
Cersei -- batshit crazy but loves her children more than herself

wormie_sl said:

Yeah when comparing different events, some that are much more convoluted than others, Occam's razor can not apply. Makes sense.

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Keywords in my post: by you at least. You supply the most outlandish assumption and claim Ockham's razor. The show has spent seasons developing Cersei's love for her children.

There really isn't anyone left to fight, as far as Tywin knows. Stannis is broken, nobody except Varys really knows about Dany, the Wildlings and the White Walkers are not taken seriously. Dorne is a small country without forward military power, you don't wanna invade it (its like Vietnam) but you aren't worried about them coming out and fighting everyone. The Iron Born are a problem but its a small problem that mostly falls into Roose's hands now. Who else is left?

if Marge got pregnant from Joffrey then it's a great time to kill him. Marge would be Queen Regent, her baby will be the future king, and the Tyrells can gather around and make sure nothing happens to the baby, while slowly dismantling the Lannisters from Kings Landing. With Joffrey gone and Marge not pregnant, the future is very much up in the air. Tommen won't get Marge pregnant for quite a while, so the succession is uncertain, plus leaving Tommen as king means Tywin and Cersei and Jaime all are heavily involved. Much better for Olenna to just have her daughter and (non existant) grandson be the only ones with the right to rule.

Thats my point, yeah it probably would suck for Marge for a few days to suck Joff's dick and get pregnant, but that is a much more stable situation for her family than killing off Joffrey and hoping shit doesn't go sideways over the next 5 years, waiting for Marge to get pregnant. That is totally a Littlefinger plan, and it doesn't make much sense to me that Olenna would go along with it. Or that Twin would go along with marrying Marge to Tommen. His only two real problems now are getting his idiot heir Jaime to drop the Kingsguard and take over for him, and making enough payments to the Iron Bank so they don't go help Stannis.

The thing that confuses me is, Loras doesn't actually join the kingsguard in the show right? I was under the assumption that littlefinger plotted it all just to throw the houses off. He planted rumors in highgarden about joffrey's cruelty. Sansa backs it up when they question her about it. He also basically planted the idea of having Loras join the kingsguard, which in turn; when margaery married Joffrey, he would most likely end up killing Joffrey in defense of his sister because Joffrey is a malicious little fucker who doesn't care and obviously mistreats women.

Then he plotted with Olenna to have another angle at ridding Joffrey, all for the sake of keeping things unpredictable and assuming, when the throne passes to tommen.. cersei would again take charge and screw up again. Which would lead to... I don't know lol

This is taking his words as truth though, which isn't necessarily the right thing.
Littlefinger is awesome, i think he'll have a nice revealing come TWOW with what his motives actually are.

Sutekh is right, Occam's razor doesn't really apply. It basically boils down to the question of (assuming it was the wine) who had the opportunity. From what we are shown, the only people who could have slipped something into his cup at the right time were Margaery and the servants who brought the plates of pie.

Yeah I'm not buying into the idea the whole pie was poisoned. I doubt that whoever was doing it would risk that, for whatever reason, Joff passed up the pie and ended up killing dozens of noblemen instead. Possibly some of those they were related.

yep, margaery still gets to become a queen no matter if its joffrey or tommen. joffrey would have brutalized margaery and tommen is kind hearted. not a big fucking stretch to guess which one she rather be married to. and cersei, bless her stupid heart, caught on to the chicanery and launched this war which totally backfired in her face. stupid bitch still thinks tyrion is hiding in the walls waiting to kill her when she sleeps even though she thought margary plotted to become queen.

Tenks_sl said:

Yeah I'm not buying into the idea the whole pie was poisoned. I doubt that whoever was doing it would risk that, for whatever reason, Joff passed up the pie and ended up killing dozens of noblemen instead. Possibly some of those they were related.

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Not necessary to poison the entire pie. Right after Jeoffrey christens Dovewacker, servants run in carrying pie slices on plates, one is given to Margaery. Still, it was probably the wine.

Edit: Or was it Pigeonslicer? I forget.

Raes_sl said:

Not necessary to poison the entire pie. Right after Jeoffrey christens Dovewacker, servants run in carrying pie slices on plates, one is given to Margaery. Still, it was probably the wine.

Edit: Or was it Pigeonslicer? I forget.

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Bookbane iirc

Kreugen_sl said:

Oh, right, married. Somehow I overlooked that. Probably because he wasn't banging her, which seems to be a pretty big deal in Westeros divorce court.

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It's funny you mention that. Pretty sure they aren't technically married until they have sex, and that's always made me wonder if that was an intentional plot point.

Needless_sl said:

Then he plotted with Olenna to have another angle at ridding Joffrey, all for the sake of keeping things unpredictable and assuming, when the throne passes to tommen.. cersei would again take charge and screw up again. Which would lead to... I don't know lol

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Chaos is a ladder ...

Lenas_sl said:

It wasn't really luck that the Lannisters agreed to marry Tommen to the Tyrells as well. Didn't the Lannisters need them, like, big time? Both for military power and money. Who else would the Lannisters turn to?

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Pretty sure they even touched on this in this last episode, but it was easy to miss since it was kind of hectic. When Olenna and Tywin are walking from the ceremony to the reception, she mentions the Iron Bank (and presumably that the Lannisters/Kingdom is highly indebted). It was right around when Mace wanders up.