Greece - A New Hope

Antarius

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At 26% percent unemployment, you can literally pay people to dig holes in the ground and then fill them back up, and it will actually strengthen your economy.
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
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So, is austerity what caused Greece's problems?
The problem goes back to when the Euro was created. All the countries that joined it had to fulfil some basic economic criteria, but Greece fudged it's books to make it look like they met the requirements when in fact they didn't. However, the blame doesn't only lie with the Greek politicians of the time, because *everyone* knew Greece's actual economic performance was nothing like the official statistics. The French and the Germans both turned a blind eye to the economics because politically they wanted as many countries in the Euro as possible.

Traditionally when times get tough for a country, it effectively devalues it's currency to make it more competitive on the international market. So in this case Greek goods would suddenly become cheaper, Greek workers would be cheaper to employ, but of course anyone who had Greek money - or Greek debt - would lose out because it would be worth less.

But Greece is part of the Euro, so it can't devalue it's currency. The only way for it to be more competitive is to spend less and become more efficient at producing things. This can be done, and in fact it was just starting to happen, but Greece is so deep in the hole that it will take them twenty years to pay off what they owe, assuming in that twenty years they don't have another recession (unlikely). Telling your population that they face twenty years of mass unemployment and poverty doesn't win votes.

The best answer for Greece and the Euro as a whole would probably be for Germany to leave the Euro, rather than Greece; or alternatively to split the currency into a "North" and a "South". The German economy is too strong compared to the others and German law is what stopped the European Central Bank in the past from implementing the money-printing measures undertaken by the US and the UK to get their economies going.
 

ohkcrlho

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At 26% percent unemployment, you can literally pay people to dig holes in the ground and then fill them back up, and it will actually strengthen your economy.
And youth unemployment at 50%.
Good job IMF and Merkel.
 

General Antony

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The Greeks simply want more free shit, just like the leftist loons here at home.

They put all their money on black and it hit red. Every time someone fucks up big the response is to try to bail them out. It's fucking disgusting.
 

Aaron

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I predict one of two things will happen:

1. (The more likely one) Same shit, different party. That is, the new government will find out the options are limited. Sure, spending might increase a little bit, they might be able to shake out a slightly more favourable agreement with the Troika, and they might be able to tax the richest Greeks a wee bit more, but the core problems will not be solved and the Average Joe Greek will still be destitute.

2. The government actually tries to implement some of the things they want to do, and might get some help from Russia/China/Whoever in doing so. On the surface, this might actually help Greece, but there is a major problem with this, and that is it would look really bad for the Troika and their policies towards all the other countries that are in the shitter now and austeritying themselves to poverty. If Greece were allowed to succeed then these other economies (Italy, Spain, Portugal etc...) might start demanding concessions too. So I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that the EU/ECB/Germany/Whoever will engage in both overt and covert propaganda, economic warfare and even political shenanigans to force the new government to either go with what I said in part 1, or cause the government to fail.
 

Frenzied Wombat

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I seem to remember another European country in the 1930's rejecting foreign imposed austerity measures, and also voting in a "radical left" party. Good luck Greece..
 

Kuro

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Yeah, but if the Greeks went Nazi they'd just decide to holocaust the Turks, so the west wouldn't care.
 

Hoss

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Jubilee. Every 50 years debt forgivness, freedom from slavery physical and economic. It's an ancient hebrew concept.
I thought it was every 7 years.

The problem goes back to when the Euro was created. All the countries that joined it had to fulfil some basic economic criteria, but Greece fudged it's books to make it look like they met the requirements when in fact they didn't.
This is why I like hearing about greece. Didn't they also lower the pay for government workers at the demand of the EU, but sneakily change the pay schedule so they were getting more paychecks and actually wound up with a raise?

Or is that the same fudging you're talking about?
 

Xequecal

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The problem goes back to when the Euro was created. All the countries that joined it had to fulfil some basic economic criteria, but Greece fudged it's books to make it look like they met the requirements when in fact they didn't. However, the blame doesn't only lie with the Greek politicians of the time, because *everyone* knew Greece's actual economic performance was nothing like the official statistics. The French and the Germans both turned a blind eye to the economics because politically they wanted as many countries in the Euro as possible.
This is not actually true. Greece met the criteria when they were admitted. A few years after they were admitted the EU changed their accounting methods and under those methods Greece would not have qualified in 1999, but under the methods used in 1999, they did qualify. Even under the new methods the deficit was about 3.3% for 1999, slightly over the 3% cap, so it's not like the difference was gigantic.

All the debt problems were created after Greece joined the Euro and then abused the fact that they could borrow and borrow without their currency actually devaluing. Nobody in the EU acted to do anything about their budget deficits (which were definitely in violation of the treaty at this point) until it was too late. Most creditors assumed that the EU would not let Greece default and thus just gave them as much money as they wanted. US banks even abused the fact that financial derivatives were not required to be reported under the Maastricht treaty to create financial instruments that let Greece borrow even more without having to report that they were doing it.
 

Flight

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This is interesting :


Yanis Varoufakis as Finance Minister has drawn quite a bit of media attention. His description of EU-IMF bailout programmes as "fiscal waterboarding" has been doing the rounds. Varoufakis recently gave a comprehensive interview to Spanish daily El Mundo, where he provides a clear explanation of how Greece's debt burden could be reduced.


We owe our European partners ?280bn. Fine: we will issue new bonds worth this amount, with exactly the same repayment schedule that we had agreed - but linked to nominal, not real, GDP growth. The IMF and the ECB claim that our nominal GDP will grow by 7% per year for the next 20 years. If this is the case, we will pay back the money they lent us. But if nominal GDP grows by between 5% and 7%, we will pay back a third of the money we committed to repay. And if [it grows] by less than 5%, we won't pay anything back that year. In 2038, these bonds will expire. We will have repaid what we could. What we couldn't repay, we wouldn't. It is about making debt repayments conditional on progress in the real economy.


Worth bearing in mind it isn't the member states putting demands on Greece, it's the ruling body and the IMF. They aren't just demanding a repayment schedule they are demanding Greeces industries (including their ports and power companies)are all privatised and running their country for them.
 

Flight

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Even more interesting :



Bank of England governor attacks eurozone austerity

Mark Carney says eurozone is caught in a debt trap and should ease hardline budget cuts just days after the Syriza election directly challenged policy


The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has launched a strong attack on austerity in the eurozone as he warned that the single-currency area was caught in a debt trap that could cost it a second lost decade.
Speaking in Dublin, Carney said the eurozone needed to ease its hardline budgetary policies and make rapid progress towards a fiscal union that would transfer resources from rich to poor countries.
?It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that, if the eurozone were a country, fiscal policy would be substantially more supportive,? the governor said. ?However, it is tighter than in the UK, even though Europe still lacks other effective risk-sharing mechanisms and is relatively inflexible.?
Carney?s remarks come just three days after the election of the Syriza-led government in Greece presented a direct challenge to the austerity policies championed in the eurozone by Germany?s Angela Merkel.
While not mentioning any eurozone country by name, Carney made it clear that he thought the failure to complete the process of integration coupled with over-restrictive fiscal policies risked driving the 18-nation single currency area deeper into a debt trap.
?Since the financial crisis all major advanced economies have been in a debt trap where low growth deepens the burden of debt, prompting the private sector to cut spending further. Persistent economic weakness damages the extent to which economies can recover. Skills and capital atrophy. Workers become discouraged and leave the labour force. Prospects decline and the noose tightens.
?As difficult as it has been, some countries, including the US and the UK, are now escaping this trap. Others in the euro area are sinking deeper.?
Since the start of the eurozone crisis more than five years ago, Europe?s policy makers have been calling for the creation of a banking union and a fiscal union to stand alongside the monetary union that created the single currency. There have also been calls, from the European commission, the European Central Bank and individual governments for economic reforms to make the eurozone more competitive.
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Carney noted: ?As of this evening, progress on structural reforms in the euro area remains uneven. Cross border risk sharing through the financial system has slid backwards. Europe?s leaders do not currently foresee fiscal union as part of monetary union. Such timidity has costs.?
The governor added that there four features of Britain?s economic model showed how to escape a debt trap: an integrated financial system channelled savings into investment; fiscal policy moved money around the UK and was flexible enough to allow budget deficits to rise during downturns; the economy was open and flexible; and the monetary policy operated by Threadneedle Street was credible.
He contrasted the UK with the eurozone, where output unadjusted for inflation has increased by 5% in almost seven years and inflation excluding fuel and food prices has been below 1% for over a year. ?This is potentially dangerous. Low nominal growth is intensifying the euro area?s debt burden. The fear of stagnation is holding back spending and investment.?
Carney has been vocal in his support for the European Central Bank?s decision to start buying government and commercial debt in its own version of the quantitative easing programmes, but said the Frankfurt-based central bank was unable alone to eliminate the threat of a prolonged stagnation. ?These exist primarily because, in most respects, the current construction of the euro area is unfinished.?
The governor expressed scepticism about whether improving competitiveness through driving down costs ? a process known as internal devaluation ? would work. ?Internal devaluations simply reallocate demand within the currency union. They do not boost aggregate demand in the euro area as a whole. Put another way, since competitiveness is relative, a solution for some cannot be a solution for all.?
Carney said the eurozone?s unemployment rate of 11.5% was more than double that of the UK, but it?s fiscal deficit ? the gap between tax revenues and spending ? was only half the size of the UK?s. The eurozone, he said, should be using a ?constructive? fiscal policy to support demand and mitigate the ?tail risks of stagnation?.
He added: ?Europe needs a comprehensive, coherent plan to anchor expectations, build confidence and escape its debt trap.?
 

Gadrel_sl

shitlord
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This is not actually true. Greece met the criteria when they were admitted. A few years after they were admitted the EU changed their accounting methods and under those methods Greece would not have qualified in 1999, but under the methods used in 1999, they did qualify. Even under the new methods the deficit was about 3.3% for 1999, slightly over the 3% cap, so it's not like the difference was gigantic.

All the debt problems were created after Greece joined the Euro and then abused the fact that they could borrow and borrow without their currency actually devaluing. Nobody in the EU acted to do anything about their budget deficits (which were definitely in violation of the treaty at this point) until it was too late. Most creditors assumed that the EU would not let Greece default and thus just gave them as much money as they wanted. US banks even abused the fact that financial derivatives were not required to be reported under the Maastricht treaty to create financial instruments that let Greece borrow even more without having to report that they were doing it.
"Changing accounting methods" is fudging the books, dumbass.
 

fanaskin

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The problem with how they created the eu is they're trying to act like the united states of europe but every state still has a national identity, it took the civil war to change americans perceptions of what they belonged to. If it was america today and a state went bankrupt people would be more inclined to leave and look for work in another state.
 

Gadrel_sl

shitlord
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The problem with how they created the eu is they're trying to act like the united states of europe but every state still has a national identity, it took the civil war to change americans perceptions of what they belonged to. If it was america today and a state went bankrupt people would be more inclined to leave and look for work in another state.
Yeah, no, you Yankee faggot. The South is still regionally and culturally distinct and we still despise you. I would rather be a fucking Mexican than lumped into the same boat as you.
 

fanaskin

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even saying south vs north and not i'm a georgian or virginian or texan or whatever you've already conceded my point.
 

Asshat wormie

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Yeah no shit, the post you were trying to refute specifically stated that France and Germany were complicit in it.
Xeq was answering a claim that greece fudged the books. He said that accounting rules were changed by EU, not greece. You came out and said "OMG THIS IS PROOF THAT GREECE FUDGED BOOKS". Clearly retarded.