Well I sort of agree, but I also think some people are just bad. Yes, you can reach rank 15 with no effort, but who are the people who are so bad it takes no effort to get there? They are obviously still playing on the ladder and not advancing.
Hearthstone
- Thread starter Azrayne
- Start date
It shouldn't take quite that long. I'm not sure how to do calculate it, so I wrote a sim that gets similar numbers toRank 5 to Legendary probability (using actual math!) : hearthstone
(my sim is slightly worse, 220/118/82 games played to get to legendary given 0.55/0.6/0.65 win rates). I threw in the fact that you can't de-rank below 20 and that other ranks have a lower number of required stars.
That said, given a 57% win rate, it'll take you 164 wins to get to legendary from rank 5. Given 15 minute games, that'll take 41 hours.
I dunno I just figured that I am 7% above 50/50 and with that it would take me 14 games to be solidly ahead a full star. 14*25 stars = 350 games. Prob would take less but then again, the competition is stronger than what I had faced from 15-3.
So yea, if you're starting at rank 3 and only have a 50% win rate, it'll take you about 252 wins to hit legend. Edited my sim to bump your win rate to 0.6 between rank 4-5 and 0.75 at rank 6+.
Bottom line? It's a grind to hit legendary.
Bottom line? It's a grind to hit legendary.
Your actual win rate may be greater than 50% even if the simulation is set to a 50% win rate. It's like flipping a coin, sometimes you'll get a lot of heads in a row, sometimes not.
If you had a 50% win chance from rank 20, you could still hit legendary. Actually, as long as you have a non-zero % chance to win, you'll get there. It just depends on how patient you are. (Well actually, maybe not, since you're limited by seasons only being a month long...)
If you had a 50% win chance from rank 20, you could still hit legendary. Actually, as long as you have a non-zero % chance to win, you'll get there. It just depends on how patient you are. (Well actually, maybe not, since you're limited by seasons only being a month long...)
I got to legendary once and then never bothered to reach for it in following seasons, now I just play constructed up to 20 for the card back and that is that and alot of my friends do just that - get to 20 and call it a day
Arbitrary
Tranny Chaser
- 27,379
- 72,687
Only if you envision a 50% win rate as winning a game and losing a game or if the player immediately stops playing once achieving Legendary and thus is stopping at some point where the flips disproportionately fell in his favor (and thus does not have a 50% win rate at that exact time).
Ravishing
Uninspiring Title
- 8,455
- 3,577
How would that work? Starting at rank 5 you basically need to win 2 games for every 1 loss to make progress (66% win rate). Of course you can tank your W/L record down prior and make legendary with 20% overall win rate if you want to.
TJT
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 41,278
- 103,823
Got to rank 7 this morning playing the OTK Priest. Shade/Stalagg/Feugen/lots of healing shit make this deck a lot of fun. But I am not as good with it as the regular control priest and I don't like not having SW
. A turn 2 or 3 shade is effectively unkillable and if you get to turn 7 with it you will usually have the combo cards to take him out.
Fun fun fun.
. A turn 2 or 3 shade is effectively unkillable and if you get to turn 7 with it you will usually have the combo cards to take him out.Fun fun fun.
Arbitrary
Tranny Chaser
- 27,379
- 72,687
Picture a gigantic string of coin flips. Thousands and thousands of flips. There are going to be chunks that are disproportionately heads and chunks that are disproportionately tails. Over the long haul there will be as many of each as the other but the right chunk at the right time would land you Legendary. Sure, if you calculate win rate at that moment it'll look like it's higher than 50% but it really isn't. If I challenged you to a coin flipping contest and won flipping heads 7 out of 10 times would you say that heads had a 70% chance of showing up?
Ravishing
Uninspiring Title
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I mean yea, I know what you're saying, you can make the win % infinitesimally close to 50 but I can't imagine a circumstance where you can get Legend with exactly a 50% or less win percentage, assuming we remain in the ranks 5 or better. That constraint in tact means deranking to 6 then back to 5 starts the stat back over. If you allow losses outside the constraints you can easily get win percentages much less than 50%. Even assuming you win only 1001 games for every 1000 losses, that's still a win percentage of 50.02
Brand
Molten Core Raider
- 1,159
- 313
I find it hard to believe that one in fifty accounts make legendary. That seems REALLY high.
Ravishing
Uninspiring Title
- 8,455
- 3,577
I guess it works because you have to lose twice in a row to derank. Otherwise your odds of stringing together 25 more wins than losses seems like it should be higher than 1/350.