Home buying thread

GuardianX

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Pops said:
Those rates are way too high. Should be 3 max if you have good credit.
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Have great credit, like I said, if people are seeing different numbers I'm all for seeing what those numbers are. Likely can't really talk to a CU since my county and the surrounding counties are all on "Shelter in place" til the 3rd.

I'm going to guess that post april 3rd we'll see another rate surge upwards as everyone and their mother goes out to refinance / buy and then mid / late april it'll settle down again across the board.
 
Pops

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If things quiet down I see no reason why those rates wont fall.
 
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GuardianX

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Oblio said:
Wait only if you have a shit ton of equity in your home. If you are hovering around and 80% LTV/CLTV at today's values you might not be there in 3-6 months.
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Are you implying there will be a market crash in home values?
 
Pops

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Oblio said:
Wait only if you have a shit ton of equity in your home. If you are hovering around and 80% LTV/CLTV at today's values you might not be there in 3-6 months.
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Aren't the low down loans back or did they blow with the wind as soon as the shit hit the fan?
 
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Pops said:
Aren't the low down loans back or did they blow with the wind as soon as the shit hit the fan?
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They are getting lower but the lenders are using, from what I've seen, the massive increase in loan requests as reason to jack up their rates.
 
Oblio

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GuardianX said:
Are you implying there will be a market crash in home values?
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I am implying that we are not yet able to measure the effects from this Pandemic. Not only as a CYA, but as a prudent business practice Appraisers should be reconciling to the lower end in times of uncertainty.

I am placing this statement in all my reports right now...

*Note: The impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on market conditions in this area have not been measurable as of the date of this appraisal, however the National, State and local declarations of emergency have just been issued and the overall impact from these actions are still in their infancy. The marketing time provided in this report is longer than recent market evidence and takes into account the potential impact of changes in the market moving forward due to COVID-19 and those measures currently being implemented in the Subject's market (i.e. school closures, social distancing, slowing business activity, changes in interest rates, etc.).
 
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GuardianX

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Oblio said:
I am implying that we are not yet able to measure the effects from this Pandemic. Not only as a CYA, but as a prudent business practice Appraisers should be reconciling to the lower end in times of uncertainty.

I am placing this statement in all my reports right now...

*Note: The impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on market conditions in this area have not been measurable as of the date of this appraisal, however the National, State and local declarations of emergency have just been issued and the overall impact from these actions are still in their infancy. The marketing time provided in this report is longer than recent market evidence and takes into account the potential impact of changes in the market moving forward due to COVID-19 and those measures currently being implemented in the Subject's market (i.e. school closures, social distancing, slowing business activity, changes in interest rates, etc.).
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Is that responsible though?

Not calling into question your skill in doing your job in the least, just wondering.

Like how much, in the way of external factors, do you weigh in a homes appraisal?

Take for example global warming. Would a home that lies at or near 0 in terms of sea-level in a state with a coastline see a harsher appraisal because of the uncertainty of ocean levels in the future?

I mean, going forward, people will always need / desire houses. Speaking morbidly about COVID, it will increase the available homes on market but the demand will increase as well. The question, ultimately, is will the increase of homes on the market overwhelm the increased demand resulting in lower home values. Nevermind people looking to more rural locations in a post-COVID world.
 
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I can tell you this much about housing market in new york. No one is buying and no one is looking to buy. All our closings are being canceled because people on all sides refuse to meet, or their law offices are closed and certainly no new business is coming in. This will either result in a shift of demand forward without a drop in demand and thus have no effect on the overall prices or it will result in a glut of sellers and thus decrease prices. I dont know how the increase in unemployment is going to effect the supply since a majority of people that are getting fucked by this dont own anything. What I do know is that it is unlikely prices will appreciate much so todays price will be the maximum of tomorrows for some time.
 
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GuardianX

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wormie said:
I can tell you this much about housing market in new york. No one is buying and no one is looking to buy. All our closings are being canceled because people on all sides refuse to meet, or their law offices are closed and certainly no new business is coming in. This will either result in a shift of demand forward without a drop in demand and thus have no effect on the overall prices or it will result in a glut of sellers and thus decrease prices. I dont know how the increase in unemployment is going to effect the supply since a majority of people that are getting fucked by this dont own anything. What I do know is that it is unlikely prices will appreciate much so todays price will be the maximum of tomorrows for some time.
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I agree with this in the short-term but once people are allowed to sneeze on one another again, I don't see the market declining much after that. At least not before another major bubble.
 
Oblio

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GuardianX said:
Is that responsible though?

Not calling into question your skill in doing your job in the least, just wondering.

Like how much, in the way of external factors, do you weigh in a homes appraisal?

Take for example global warming. Would a home that lies at or near 0 in terms of sea-level in a state with a coastline see a harsher appraisal because of the uncertainty of ocean levels in the future?

I mean, going forward, people will always need / desire houses. Speaking morbidly about COVID, it will increase the available homes on market but the demand will increase as well. The question, ultimately, is will the increase of homes on the market overwhelm the increased demand resulting in lower home values. Never mind people looking to more rural locations in a post-COVID world.
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Is it responsible? Let me put it this way...it would be irresponsible to not consider the potential impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Your example of a home in a flood zone is not and apples to apples comparison. People have Flood Insurance which for the most part takes that risk out of my hands, however, you bet your ass the majority and highest weighted of my comparbles used in the report will be in the same or similar flood zone (in that specific example).

We interpret the market based on recent historical data, meaning I cannot tell you how this impacting home values until I have 30-90 days of data to analyze.

Your last question is really broad and all I can say it is will depend on that specific markets supply and demand dynamic.
 
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Oblio

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Also, I am realizing more and more that the Fannie Mae stuff I posted the other day is very very limiting, Interior Inspections are still the norm.
 
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Oblio

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GuardianX said:
Like how much, in the way of external factors, do you weigh in a homes appraisal?
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I realized I missed this question. I am always analyzing the market reaction to external factors for everything from the Subject Property being adjacent to Commercial Activity, Busy Road/Arterial, Brownfields etc etc etc. If you undertsand how to extract the data you can usually find an impact positive or negative, which again is also affected by the local supply and demand dynamic.

Example: When values are appreciating and inventory is low there will be less discounting for homes located on a Busy Road/Arterial. Obviously the reverse is true in a depreciating market.
 
Oblio

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I just got confirmation that my COVID-19 statement spoilered above was the right thing to do. My E&O insurance just sent me this as suggested language.

"The global outbreak of a “novel coronavirus” known as COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The reader is cautioned, and reminded that the conclusions presented in this appraisal report apply only as of the effective date(s) indicated. The appraiser makes no representation as to the effect on the subject property of any unforeseen event, subsequent to the effective date of the appraisal."
 
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GuardianX

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Oblio said:
I just got confirmation that my COVID-19 statement spoilered above was the right thing to do. My E&O insurance just sent me this as suggested language.

"The global outbreak of a “novel coronavirus” known as COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The reader is cautioned, and reminded that the conclusions presented in this appraisal report apply only as of the effective date(s) indicated. The appraiser makes no representation as to the effect on the subject property of any unforeseen event, subsequent to the effective date of the appraisal."
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haha, well good to know!
 
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