Home buying thread

Khane

Khane

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Haha, I'm using the unlogged in free version of chatgpt and now it's returning this:


✅ Final Answer:​


Your investment would be worth approximately $1,508,233.38 after 30 years at a 10.3% CAGR, assuming monthly contributions of $579.84.

Which is yet again more than what you got from it even though its slightly less monthly contributions.
 
Khane

Khane

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Just asked it again

If you invest $580/month for 30 years at a 10.3% CAGR, your investment would grow to approximately:

$2,493,543.51

Jesus, it's hilariously bad at math. Like what the actual fuck?
 
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Intrinsic

Intrinsic

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The most important lesson my first boss ever taught me when I started working professionally was “trust but verify” 😂 Think he was a big Reagan fan.

I asked again and got the same $1397641.

Short actual update to our endeavor now that I’m done with yard work and we’re about to head back out. Turns out one of the original two parcels we wanted to buy and combine was already under contract. The developer of this new subdivision is a dad and his two son’s and apparently they were not communicating with each other, so when we called to verify it was “yes submit the offer,” then 2 minutes later another phone call with “wait it may be under contract already,” and then that afternoon “yeah the other people close next week, sorry my sons are idiots.”

So, we’re heading back out after going to the Park with kids to take a look at some other lots. There are 4 that are individual ones just under and acre that will be the same square footage had we combined the others, they’re just a street over and have a little larger minimum build requirements. If one of those 4 looks flat enough we’ll go in just under asking and see what happens. If they don’t look great maybe this will be a sign that we need to hold off.
 
Foler

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Has anyone here been through the custom home building process? If you have, what’s a high level view of the process? Are there any online tools you used to help you plan layouts and pricing? How did you inspiration and ideas?
 
Intrinsic

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Foler said:
Has anyone here been through the custom home building process? If you have, what’s a high level view of the process? Are there any online tools you used to help you plan layouts and pricing? How did you inspiration and ideas?
Click to expand...

Continue to follow my blog as we go through the process! It'll be very entertaining and provide countless opportunities to say "I told you so!" and "That was a dumb decision!"

Do you have a lot yet? Not all floorplans or tentative plans will fit all lots. Even though we have a more traditional style we've had to alter our idea a few times because our lot selection has gone from more long / narrow, to a potential lot with a slope, to a more square lot.

I'm plopping down potential floorplans, layouts, and boundaries in ArcGIS to get an idea of how something may sit and have an idea of front, back, and side clearances. It obviously isn't perfect but lets me play around.

Our builder has in house design and architect to adjust any plans that we find that we want to start from. I've considered finding a 3rd party to review as well but am not sure yet. He's also done about 6 - 8 other houses in this development that we've seen and liked.

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Kithani

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Intrinsic said:
Continue to follow my blog as we go through the process! It'll be very entertaining and provide countless opportunities to say "I told you so!" and "That was a dumb decision!"

Do you have a lot yet? Not all floorplans or tentative plans will fit all lots. Even though we have a more traditional style we've had to alter our idea a few times because our lot selection has gone from more long / narrow, to a potential lot with a slope, to a more square lot.

I'm plopping down potential floorplans, layouts, and boundaries in ArcGIS to get an idea of how something may sit and have an idea of front, back, and side clearances. It obviously isn't perfect but lets me play around.

Our builder has in house design and architect to adjust any plans that we find that we want to start from. I've considered finding a 3rd party to review as well but am not sure yet. He's also done about 6 - 8 other houses in this development that we've seen and liked.

View attachment 601162View attachment 601163
Click to expand...
Be a real man and put in a lazy river moat
 
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Foler

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Intrinsic said:
Continue to follow my blog as we go through the process! It'll be very entertaining and provide countless opportunities to say "I told you so!" and "That was a dumb decision!"

Do you have a lot yet? Not all floorplans or tentative plans will fit all lots. Even though we have a more traditional style we've had to alter our idea a few times because our lot selection has gone from more long / narrow, to a potential lot with a slope, to a more square lot.

I'm plopping down potential floorplans, layouts, and boundaries in ArcGIS to get an idea of how something may sit and have an idea of front, back, and side clearances. It obviously isn't perfect but lets me play around.

Our builder has in house design and architect to adjust any plans that we find that we want to start from. I've considered finding a 3rd party to review as well but am not sure yet. He's also done about 6 - 8 other houses in this development that we've seen and liked.

View attachment 601162View attachment 601163
Click to expand...
I do have a lot with plenty of space. Where are you getting your floor plans? I think that’s a great place to start. It would be nice to get some inspiration.
 
Intrinsic

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Foler said:
I do have a lot with plenty of space. Where are you getting your floor plans? I think that’s a great place to start. It would be nice to get some inspiration.
Click to expand...

Man, there's a ton. I just asked ChatGTP for a whole list a couple months back when we started this.

I can't remember exactly which off the top of my head, one of them actually includes pictures of houses built off the plans, so you can look at exterior or interior modifications that were made from baseline. We've been screenshotting ones we like, adding them to a PowerPoint Idea Book, and listing the likes / dislikes, and are condensing it down to the top 3 concepts.

Most sites have 100s of filters to toggle from different lot styles, requirements like "upstairs laundry" or "safe room," and even crazier things.
 
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Foler

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Man, there's a ton. I just asked ChatGTP for a whole list a couple months back when we started this.

I can't remember exactly which off the top of my head, one of them actually includes pictures of houses built off the plans, so you can look at exterior or interior modifications that were made from baseline. We've been screenshotting ones we like, adding them to a PowerPoint Idea Book, and listing the likes / dislikes, and are condensing it down to the top 3 concepts.

Most sites have 100s of filters to toggle from different lot styles, requirements like "upstairs laundry" or "safe room," and even crazier things.
Click to expand...
Hah not sure why I didn’t think to just ask ChatGPT.. awesome thanks for the references
 
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Intrinsic

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Should be closing on our land Monday 9/22.

In a wrinkle to the whole effort that I've been holding off posting about, my Mother-in-Law is now purchasing a lot behind our lot and relocating here from Dallas. So, we'll be doing two home builds with lots separated by some green space. She was considering a next-door lot, but it was a little more space than she wanted, larger minimum square foot build requirement. The lot behind us on another street (different phase of subdivision) is smaller and has a much smaller square footage since it is just her.

I'd like to use a local bank for the construction / perm loan but need to continue to shop around when I get a few minutes.
 
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Lanx

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In a wrinkle to the whole effort that I've been holding off posting about, my Mother-in-Law is now purchasing a lot behind our lot and relocating here from Dallas.
Click to expand...
is this preferable? cuz this sounds like a lifetime movie
 
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Intrinsic

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Lanx said:
is this preferable? cuz this sounds like a lifetime movie
Click to expand...
I’m supportive. We have our differences but she’s fine as far as MIL’s go, and she really likes me so that helps. We also have no other family here and the idea of her wanting to help watch the 3 boys (even if it only works out 10% of the time), sounds great. She’s also putting the house and land in her Trust so that we can have it when she goes to the loony bin (her words). My wife is the successor trustee or whatever, and not her sister who lives in Houston.

We got the Lots and Acreage Contract tonight for review. I’m pretty naive about these things in that dozens of people have bought and developed here already, and I don’t want to load it down with contingencies. But also trying to be realistic in that we need some protection in case something catastrophic happens. I guess whether that is survey results, soil tests, perc test or whatever else might be a risk item.
 
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Flobee

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Between the below and turning off the spigot of Government funded illegal immigrants renting it seems pretty plausible that the floor is going to fall out of the housing market in the relatively near-term. Another aspect worth considering is as shown above, average home-buyer is 65+ and some percentage of those people are going to need to liquidate over the coming years. With house prices this elevated, who buys them? Maybe the answer is private equity with printed $$$ but I don't think that's a future anyone wants. Wealth transfer is inevitable its just a matter of waiting for the shoe to drop imo. If the RE market tanks, how goes the rest of the market? Why does Berkshire Hathaway hold ~350 billion in cash currently?

I'm medium-long term bullish on all assets because "brrr" but it does seem that a controlled demo of current asset prices is needed to correct things moving forward. Capital needs to move to younger hands and historically that only happens in a couple ways, none of them include forever ATH asset prices. Seems reasonable to hold some dry powder in an interest bearing account and see how this all plays out. At least while rates are still relatively high.

Open to being told why this is wrong because it seems pretty obvious to me

1758542219021.png

EDIT: I forgot about property taxes 2x-3x since 2020 in a number of places. Forget about HOA, insurance etc
 
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Jysin

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The only thing I will say is the stock market is not the housing market. Stocks are fickle, liquid and can be panic sold at the push of a button. Housing? Not so much.

From the historical perspective of the last “crash” of the 2008 GFC / Housing Crisis:
Lehman collapse (alarm bells blared): Sept 2008
Stock market bottom: March 2009
Housing bottom: 2012

So, to even assume a housing crisis is unfolding, it can take YEARS to shake out. It moves at a glacial pace to get forced selling, comps to pull valuations down, etc.

I still don’t think we get any massive housing correction until there are mass layoffs, which don’t seem to be happening as of yet. We are seeing some anecdotal markets pull in that were the most overbought during the pandemic years. (TX & FL). Much of the NorthEast is doing nothing but going up in price.
 
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Intrinsic

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My uneducated view on some of this just from talking around to different people locally (that are in similar positions to us) as well as reading what I can since we have a vested interest today is:

There seems to be a big speculation game going on between parties holding capital and waiting to move hedging on a crisis coming up vs the government and markets trying to prevent a crisis. For a variety of reasons including but not limited to current interest rates and homes being overpriced, you’ve got this sideline buildup of people ready to jump. And when that happens, either rates drop or the bottom falls out of pricing, there could be this massive influx of buyers waiting to pounce. Then it creates a perception of mass demand, which may or may not be manufactured by the hedge funds or whomever was sitting there. Which could in effect create a shortage of supply and drive / stabilize pricing again.

Again, I’m uneducated on the details and specific verbiage. But being in the position we’re in and trying to justify/rationalize our process mean it either makes sense or is stupid. I just know we wanted to get our land now (closing today) and be locked in for our 2 year plan, rather than waiting for when the damn breaks and competing like back in 2020.

The property tax thing is dumb too b/c ours has driven our escrow cost up way out of line with our mortgage from 5 years ago. And the area we're moving is a city over with less taxes, for now. That'll offset a tiny amount the higher mortgage we're expecting to pay.
 
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