Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Jysin

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Big Phoenix said:
View attachment 394729
Click to expand...
This Is Fine GIF


Seriously though, it's completely normal to backtest after a turn. Not to say it can't fail (especially with external factors), but we are looking for it to backtest and hold before a move higher. Taking out yesterday's lows would pretty much panic the markets. We just want a higher low put in today before continuation.

My biggest market risks I see this week:

#1 Russia / Ukraine: If this kicks off, we could gap down significantly and quickly

#2 Fed suprise: Risk of 50bp rate hike on Weds. However, I do feel some of this risk has been getting priced in but not completely. If Fed announces 25bp, I think we move higher.

#3 AAPL miss: Due to weighting, I am slightly concerned of an underpeformance of this name. Q4 had some questionable headlines for the company. Earnings / guide will be critical.


We are not out of the woods by any means. (Hence why I am still holding ~27% cash position) Keeping an eye on markets as things develop.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
This Is Fine GIF


Seriously though, it's completely normal to backtest after a turn. Not to say it can't fail (especially with external factors), but we are looking for it to backtest and hold before a move higher. Taking out yesterday's lows would pretty much panic the markets. We just want a higher low put in today before continuation.

My biggest market risks I see this week:

#1 Russia / Ukraine: If this kicks off, we could gap down significantly and quickly

#2 Fed suprise: Risk of 50bp rate hike on Weds. However, I do feel some of this risk has been getting priced in but not completely. If Fed announces 25bp, I think we move higher.

#3 AAPL miss: Due to weighting, I am slightly concerned of an underpeformance of this name. Q4 had some questionable headlines for the company. Earnings / guide will be critical.


We are not out of the woods by any means. (Hence why I am still holding ~27% cash position) Keeping an eye on markets as things develop.
Click to expand...
I hear BZFD is on sale. Maybe grab some of that name 😃
 
Sanrith Descartes

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My recommendation for the day is GOOGL. The intermediate support line is $2450 which is also the 20% down mark from the 52-high. If it hits that level it should bounce hard. Even if it doesn't its a great price to enter for a 25 PE, $103 EPS stock. It may not drop that low (I hope because if it does, things would be shitty), it would be a 6% drop but a price around $2500 or $2475 is a good guess.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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For those playing at home QQQ low of the late/early hours is $344.51 or 2.5% from yesterdays close. This was around 8:10am. If that ends up being our low of the day we are in pretty good shape (all things considered). To be honest, I hope we retest down around the 2:45pm low of $340 and bounce. That was also a support point yesterday at 10:20am.

1643118884675.png
 
Zog

Zog

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Everyone is bullish it looks like, a little pop and everyone is loading up on calls thinking fed will reverse policy over a few days of red in the market just so the market can go back to ath 🤦

Interest rate will be .25 in March and fed will discuss run off later in the year.

Everything is telegraphed by the fed but wall Street just can't seem to believe them.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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I don't think anyone is expecting Fed to back off rates. The risk and concern you've seen in markets is a 50bp surprise. Hiking 25bp is expected and likely seen as relatively dovish.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Da fuk happened with the SPY at 9:48:39? 2 orders for 150 shares fill $60 below the bid/ask? Was that Pelosi's order?

1643122461829.png
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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This to me is the line to watch today. Roughly $340.60. That is the line that needs to hold today.

1643122805543.png
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Wasn't feeling great about bounce but the bearish tone of every talking ahead is making me more bullish. All parroting the same thing, worse yet to come. Be more cautious. etc. They are now talking their positioning which is clearly not set up for any kind of real rally. I see all the things they are seeing for reasons to be bearish but that side of the boat sure is getting crowded. Tomorrow could be one heck of a trading day.
 
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Zog

Zog

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Most likely its just more shorts covering like it was for yesterdays bounce. Still think we need to see earnings to see exactly where the trend will go.
 
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