Investing General Discussion

Zzen · May 10, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
ARKK sub-$40

IT’S A 5 YEAR BET!!!!!

Creslin · May 10, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
Raising rates would cause bank failures? How so?

From 0.25 to 5%? That might be enough to get actual deflation in real estate and the stock correction would have been 3x what we have seen so far, it isn't hard to imagine investment banks caught on the wrong side of that being insolvent.

Zog · May 10, 2022

RIP steel industry. I knew they would and will drop the tariffs. Beijing Biden about to start trending.

CLF is such a great company too... Poor stock is about to hit single digits when that shit is solidified.

Mikey · May 10, 2022

Furry said:
5% probably ain’t enough. They need to big dick this problem and jump straight to 9

I agree with you directionally but the problem is that a hike like you're suggesting would do damage to the economy that would take a generation to un-do. Companies that are low on cash would simply die. The housing market would implode for everyone not buying in all cash. Small businesses would be slaughtered. No one would take out loans to start new businesses. Rents would skyrocket. People would literally be on the street.

The gradual approach is necessary but it could go faster.

Ishad · May 10, 2022

Zog said:
RIP steel industry. I knew they would and will drop the tariffs. Beijing Biden about to start trending.

CLF is such a great company too... Poor stock is about to hit single digits when that shit is solidified.

Steel prices, especially stainless steel prices are completely fucked right now and escalating wildly.

karma · May 10, 2022

I spend enough time playing with metal at home that the delivery driver for the closest metal supplier knows my name and house. A few months ago they were honoring quotes for 2 weeks, which is down from 30 days several years ago. Lately, the quote expires at the end of the day. Ordering metal is sorta like playing the stock market now, no telling what will happen tomorrow!

Furry · May 10, 2022

Mikey said:
I agree with you directionally but the problem is that a hike like you're suggesting would do damage to the economy that would take a generation to un-do.

We can get there fast or in slow motion. I’d rather get to fixing things now, though I understand why all the bobble heads want to pretend it’s not bad yet.

Lightning Lord Rule · May 10, 2022

Something's wrong with my Fidelity account, I'm not down today so far...

Sanrith Descartes · May 10, 2022

Creslin said:
From 0.25 to 5%? That might be enough to get actual deflation in real estate and the stock correction would have been 3x what we have seen so far, it isn't hard to imagine investment banks caught on the wrong side of that being insolvent.

Ok. I dont count Investment banks. Fuck them. Glass-Steagall repeal was always a mistake. GS and MS could go belly up and I woudn't care. Actual lending banks make lots of money on loan interest. For those IBs that bought lending banks, well they will learn to cope.

What really happened during the Volcker years?

The inflation-adjusted fiscal deficit shrank, meaning monetary policy did not act by itself.

www.pmpecon.com

Sanrith Descartes · May 10, 2022

Mikey said:
I agree with you directionally but the problem is that a hike like you're suggesting would do damage to the economy that would take a generation to un-do. Companies that are low on cash would simply die. The housing market would implode for everyone not buying in all cash. Small businesses would be slaughtered. No one would take out loans to start new businesses. Rents would skyrocket. People would literally be on the street.

The gradual approach is necessary but it could go faster.

I disagree. Volcker proved that a giant shock to rates doesn't destroy the economy. Quite the opposite actually. It healed it.

Sanrith Descartes · May 10, 2022

Lightning Lord Rule said:
Something's wrong with my Fidelity account, I'm not down today so far...

Its not the power hour yet. Dont jinx it.

"perfectly normal market action"

Wingz · May 10, 2022

Mikey said:
I agree with you directionally but the problem is that a hike like you're suggesting would do damage to the economy that would take a generation to un-do. Companies that are low on cash would simply die. The housing market would implode for everyone not buying in all cash. Small businesses would be slaughtered. No one would take out loans to start new businesses. Rents would skyrocket. People would literally be on the street.

The gradual approach is necessary but it could go faster.

The damage caused took from boomers till zoomers. More then a generation to cause it. There is no quick fix here.