Investing General Discussion

10:00 *(US) APR FACTORY ORDERS: 0.3% V 0.7%E

10:13 (US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair): Right now very hard to see case for a pause, seeing some signals of strength on economy but also some signs of cooling - CNBC
- Too early to say but some signals suggest heading towards better balance in labor markets
- Acknowledges there is a fair amount of uncertainty out there
- There is a path to see demand cool and inflation come down
- Want to see consistent string of decelerating monthly core prints before I am confident we are moving back towards inflation goal
- We don't have ability to affect supply shocks
- Can see monetary policy transmission is working
- Market pricing for 50 bps hikes at next two meetings seem reasonable, but after that will have to see where data takes us
- Right now very hard to see case for a pause; We would respond to downside shocks accordingly but there would be risks
- QT might be worth 2-3 fed funds rate hikes
- Mixed picture on housing for sure, watching prices very closely
- Expect to seeing slowing growth abroad
- Look at overall tightening in financial conditions not one specific measure to guide us as it pertains to the US dollar

Brainard's comments on "hard to see a case for a pause" is what dumped the market at ~10:15.

Last week's bounce was optimism that the Fed will pause hikes after the summer, but more Fed speakers keep downplaying that idea.

Goddam, I wish that stupid fucking communist would shut her mouth lol.

In fairness, the market had some strength the first 40minutes. Despite the lows it kept making, the 5min charts were consistently putting in big bottom wicks (low prices kept being bought up). Brainard's comments pushed us to basically double bottom SPY from yesterday and we have bounced back grinding higher since. Fairly strong buyers are here today. We need to break over and hold ~415 SPY though to get another leg higher. Anything between this 407-415 level, I basically am considering as constructive consolidation.

Me two days ago:

Jysin said:

The UK government did the same shit here with a "windfall tax" being levied onto oil and gas companies (supposedly to counter record profits). You can damn well be sure those new tax costs will be passed onto the consumer. We truly live in clown world.

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Like clockwork:

12:02 (US) White House adviser Ramamurti: Administration has considered congressional proposal to tax oil and gas windfall profits

Bears going back into hibernation for a while.

Easily have room to run to SPY 425/430 before next resistance levels

Get in faggots, we’re going to the moon.

Mist said:

The more this goes on the more it just feels like all the masters got together and decided: "Middle class actually feeling comfortable enough to retire at a reasonable age instead of working themselves into the grave, time to pop this bubble we've been creating for years."

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Even you,