Furry
WoW Office
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I like how that bothers you more than the fact that the coffee shop is going to have to fire at least two PHD baristas to make up that absurd bill.
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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Job openings top 11.2 million in July, well above estimate and nearly double the available workers
Available positions totaled 11.24 million for the month, well in excess of the 10.3 million FactSet estimate, according to the JOLTS report.
Any expectation that the labor market is cooling any time soon is completely unfounded.
I've gotten 8 job offers this week and it's still fucking Tuesday.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I'd say that's still repercussions of covid, and something the business world has to figure out. That's all the boomers who weren't quite at retirement yet saying "fuck this" and walking a few years early. Those people are never coming back and those jobs are never getting filled.
I know on the federal government side, there was a massive hiring freeze in the 90s. We were still feeling the repercussions of it 25 years later because of the gap in employees (super top heavy with boomers, a decent amount of new hires, but no one in the middle). Those boomers are now heading out the door in large numbers and there's just no one there to take up the slack.
I know on the federal government side, there was a massive hiring freeze in the 90s. We were still feeling the repercussions of it 25 years later because of the gap in employees (super top heavy with boomers, a decent amount of new hires, but no one in the middle). Those boomers are now heading out the door in large numbers and there's just no one there to take up the slack.
Mist
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Furry
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Isn’t that most of the US’s jobs? I remember when people applauded us being a service economy lol.
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Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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So I get bombarded with recruiters too, but I honestly wonder how many of those are leads to real jobs... specifically jobs they'll fill with US talent. Not sure about your space, but over in my world offshoring has significantly picked up pace since the coov. We have tons of open slots where I am now, but a large % get filled from India. Sure quality of work suffers but because of increasing DXY and weakening foreign currencies... that labor is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Economy eating it will only accelerate this IMO. Good time to have a trade job. Of course it could just be tons of people job hopping as wages realign due to inflation. I guess we'll see
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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Historically, the Contact Center business has been fairly recession proof. If companies want to off-shore their call centers, or automate them, or buy more products to micromanage their call center slaves' bathroom breaks harder, we'll sell them whatever they need. If they want to fire their internal telecom engineers and call center managers and outsource the entire infrastructure, administration, management, etc of their call centers, we'll offer to fill that need with IaaS and managed services. Managed Services providers generally do well in a recession period. India-based MSPs have offered me a bunch of money to be the primary English-speaking technical point of contact that interfaces with the client, for the large high-touch clients that require such a thing.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Falstaff
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Blazin
Creative Title
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ADP removed the BLS numbers as part of the calculation. They handle 25M employees so their sampling size is actually larger than what BLS uses. Goal of the change was to have it be independent from those BLS statistics. I'm not aware of them changing it "because they didn't like the numbers" I know your just expressing the general cynical attitude we view govt reporting (however this is not govt reporting).
While I may be an outlier here I don't agree with the board sentiment that even the govt numbers "are being politically manipulated. Most of people's angst about things like the UE rate is that they don't understand what the statistic was meant to represent in the first place let alone know how it's calculated. The media and politicians however most definitely manipulate the perception of economic statistics taking advantage of the fact people don't really understand them, making fooling them easy. We here are highly cynical bunch so view the entire process as being suspect instead of just accepting it for what it is.
It's not clown world that the middle class can suffer while UE rate is low. It's just one data point in a more complex system, and all the other examples low participation/low unemployment vs high participation/moderate unemployment etc.
CPI is a frustrating one because the avg joe when looking at it's methodology can make a pretty sound argument that it's not capturing the full picture, and it's not nor does it need to. It's just a data point. We tend to want things broken down too cleanly. Give me the GOODer index over 100= good below 100 bad and it encompasses all facet's of financial life across the entire wealth spectrum.
Just watch the angst on this board over it, always driven by a statistic that doesn't align with our current perception of an issue, if we want to elevate our emotional response beyond twitter outrage level then need to just take a deep breath and accept that single data points don't define the entirety of the picture. Not to get into politics but as an example Joe Biden can suck and inflation readings could come down. They aren't mutually exclusive, but we let emotional attachment to our own narrative cloud how we interpret data, and for anyone wanting to make money this is of no use.
In my market analysis I'm always trying to weigh the evidence. Many data points some in agreement some conflicting with a view, probably the most common mistake people make is to hone in one data point to the exclusion of others as a basis for opinion and action. We especially do this with negative data points, we give them more weight. Market can't go up because of X Y Z which are easily understood negative data points. YouTube/Twitter personalities are notorious with this, the data point is the headline. They explain the data point the viewers listens and discerns that it makes sense, where it goes off the rails is the conclusion. This therefor that. Completely ignoring that it's just a piece of the puzzle. Some of it can be IQ related, part of intelligence is being able to consider many factors and as you get closer to baseline human intelligence this becomes difficult as people want to boil issues down to less variables to make it more mentally compatible.
Too long winded to delve too much into it but it's rooted in our evolution as we benefit from brains that are able to more hyper focus on a particular thing and we also benefit from a smaller subset that is able to step further back and look at the big picture. One is not better than the other, an efficient machine needs both cogs and does not need very many of the latter. When it comes to markets however one human has a clear advantage over the other.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Might be true but the sampling is still plenty large to give insight. They could be a fifth of the size and still have statistically relevant data.
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Mist
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I guess it depends what types of businesses are staying on ADP and what types of businesses are moving to Paycom, Workday, etc. It could significantly skew the sample. ADP's customer base appears to be "large employers that have been using ADP for a few decades and haven't bothered to switch to a modern platform even though it feels like this one was made in 1992."