Investing General Discussion

Jysin · Oct 13, 2022

Pay attention. Even with this down move, VIX is still negative on the day. (-1.5% as of writing)

Blazin · Oct 13, 2022

Traps can work both ways, could be an interesting day. If we were coming off a week or two of gains I'd say look out below for a 4-5% down day. Coming off red for six days in a row and eight weeks of weakness setting up for a some surprise move. Not saying we can't go lower but definitely want the ear to the rail, watching action and don't become complacent that the current trend is a sure thing.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Jysin said:
Pay attention. Even with this down move, VIX is still negative on the day. (-1.5% as of writing)

Most of our corporate debt is set to 30-day libor plus 350 basis points. When I was working up my end of year estimates back at the beginning of the year I had us at a combined rate of 9% to close 2022. Looks like Imma gonna be pretty damn close. And this is not one I am happy to have been right about.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Blazin said:
Traps can work both ways, could be an interesting day. If we were coming off a week or two of gains I'd say look out below for a 4-5% down day. Coming off red for six days in a row and eight weeks of weakness setting up for a some surprise move. Not saying we can't go lower but definitely want the ear to the rail, watching action and don't become complacent that the current trend is a sure thing.

JPM opens up the big banks and earnings season tomorrow. Another variable in the equation.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

AMZN getting close to the April 2020/June 2022 low for those interested in that sort of thing.

Blazin · Oct 13, 2022

S&P Fwd PE minus the big five is nearing like a 12 , puts it on par with Covid lows

OU Ariakas · Oct 13, 2022

Mist said:
I used to be poor. It sucked.

I stopped being poor.

As long as there's plenty of work, people have the power to choose to stop being poor.

There's still plenty of work. The Fed and the markets are conspiring to change that.

Look at fucking conservative bootstrapping Mist over here.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Borzak · Oct 13, 2022

Sell, Mortimer! sell!!

Blazin · Oct 13, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:

I thought we had one more year before these chickens came home to roost. Felt 2023 was going to be the rough year, and maybe for the economy 2023 will be worse and end up being a strong year on the market coming off lows. Thankfully I don't make trades based on long term guess work, much better success taking it a week at a time.

My puts are at 253 on QQQ so we are getting close, I'm feeling pretty indifferent. Would love to just keep flipping them but assignment at this lvl and current set up could become quite the homerun on a rally attempt.

OU Ariakas · Oct 13, 2022

Falstaff said:
The US economy two, five, ten years ago is built on exploitation of the poor and middle class. You could go back decades even.

This is going to be too political of a post for this thread but whatever, Both political parties pander to this exploitation. Dems do it. Republicans do it by telling their constituents that the tax cuts they just gave Ken Griffin are actually good for them, and even if they aren’t, then just pull yourselves up by your bootstraps and get out of poverty. It’s ignorant to think that 99% of the people born into poverty don’t stay in poverty. I get you hate Mist but it’s just a bad argument. Even Mist is the exception.

Of course, my boy Thomas Sowell torpedoed this fallacy 8 years ago. Bootstraps, indeed.

The motherfucking GOAT said:
Most working Americans who were initially in the bottom 20 percent of income earners rise out of that bottom 20 percent. More of them end up in the top 20 percent than remain in the bottom 20 percent.

People who were initially in the bottom 20 percent in income have had the highest rate of increase in their incomes, while those who were initially in the top 20 percent have had the lowest. This is the direct opposite of the pattern found when following income brackets over time, rather than following individual people.

Jysin · Oct 13, 2022

Blazin said:
I thought we had one more year before these chickens came home to roost. Felt 2023 was going to be the rough year, and maybe for the economy 2023 will be worse and end up being a strong year on the market coming off lows. Thankfully I don't make trades based on long term guess work, much better success taking it a week at a time.

My puts are at 253 on QQQ so we are getting close, I'm feeling pretty indifferent. Would love to just keep flipping them but assignment at this lvl and current set up could become quite the homerun on a rally attempt.

This is my take on my TQQQ $15 (21OCT exp) that Sanrith called out. I am not at all opposed to owning TQQQ at that price (minus premium collected).

I have collected premium twice on this trade. Took 60% profits off the table on the last bounce. Re-entered recently back near original trade entry.

Mist · Oct 13, 2022

OU Ariakas said:
Look at fucking conservative bootstrapping Mist over here.

It's perfectly rational to be bootstrappy when there's way more jobs than people, most of them start at pretty decent hourly rates, and labor interests continue pushing the bottom up. This job market that exists right now, actually from 2015 forward, is the opposite of what most of us graduated into. When your fundamentals change this much, so should your attitude.

Gas is actually more affordable right now vs the average lower or middle-class worker's hourly wage than it was during almost all of the Bush administration.

Food prices suck, but >80% of Americans could eat half as much food and not only not-suffer, but actually be better off.

Rents are insane, but how do you propose to fix that without SOSHULIZM? Would I like the government to come in and subsidize the construction of 20 million homes? Yes, but most conservatives and even centrist dems would not.

(PS: I've given my notice to my current employer twice this year and been retained with a 10k and 15k raise respectively. The inflation is me.)

TomServo · Oct 13, 2022

Mist said:
I used to be poor. It sucked.

I stopped being poor.

As long as there's plenty of work, people have the power to choose to stop being poor.

There's still plenty of work. The Fed and the markets are conspiring to change that.

Look at ayn rand here.

Tmac · Oct 13, 2022

Blazin said:
I thought we had one more year before these chickens came home to roost. Felt 2023 was going to be the rough year, and maybe for the economy 2023 will be worse and end up being a strong year on the market coming off lows. Thankfully I don't make trades based on long term guess work, much better success taking it a week at a time.

My puts are at 253 on QQQ so we are getting close, I'm feeling pretty indifferent. Would love to just keep flipping them but assignment at this lvl and current set up could become quite the homerun on a rally attempt.

Expiration?

Tmac · Oct 13, 2022

Mist said:
It's perfectly rational to be bootstrappy when there's way more jobs than people, most of them start at pretty decent hourly rates, and labor interests continue pushing the bottom up. This job market that exists right now, actually from 2015 forward, is the opposite of what most of us graduated into. When your fundamentals change this much, so should your attitude.

Gas is actually more affordable right now vs the average lower or middle-class worker's hourly wage than it was during almost all of the Bush administration.

Food prices suck, but >80% of Americans could eat half as much food and not only not-suffer, but actually be better off.

Rents are insane, but how do you propose to fix that without SOSHULIZM? Would I like the government to come in and subsidize the construction of 20 million homes? Yes, but most conservatives and even centrist dems would not.

(PS: I've given my notice to my current employer twice this year and been retained with a 10k and 15k raise respectively. The inflation is me.)

So, inflation is a good thing bc now the fats can only afford half as much food.

Brilliant. Stalin, Mao, Adolf, and Mist have so much in common.

Blazin · Oct 13, 2022

Tmac said:
Expiration?

tomorrow

Aldarion · Oct 13, 2022

Putting aside any economic theories - anyone who thinks poor fat people are gonna eat less when food prices go up doesnt know any poor people, or any fat people.

I agree with the statement that >80% of Americans should probably eat 50% less, I'm just saying food prices aren't ever gonna make that happen.

OU Ariakas · Oct 13, 2022

Mist said:
It's perfectly rational to be bootstrappy when there's way more jobs than people, most of them start at pretty decent hourly rates, and labor interests continue pushing the bottom up. This job market that exists right now, actually from 2015 forward, is the opposite of what most of us graduated into. When your fundamentals change this much, so should your attitude.

Gas is actually more affordable right now vs the average lower or middle-class worker's hourly wage than it was during almost all of the Bush administration.

Food prices suck, but >80% of Americans could eat half as much food and not only not-suffer, but actually be better off.

Rents are insane, but how do you propose to fix that without SOSHULIZM? Would I like the government to come in and subsidize the construction of 20 million homes? Yes, but most conservatives and even centrist dems would not.

(PS: I've given my notice to my current employer twice this year and been retained with a 10k and 15k raise respectively. The inflation is me.)

I agree with most of what you are saying besides housing. Rents are insane because people a.) value the idea of "living close" so much that they are willing to bid up rents higher inside of cities and close suburbs instead of saving some money and living further away, b.) take *slightly* higher paying jobs in much higher cost of living areas without really weighing the consequences, and c.) treat rental properties like shit which landlords respond to by raising security deposits and rates. Oh, and the reason they are renting in the first place is because they have made terrible monetary choices in the past and have shit credit. The last one is a direct indictment of the education system which has 0 classes about personal finance.

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