Investing General Discussion

fuck that shit right in its ear

I do have the money I've been making all year to comfort me though. everybody gets one wrong sometime

Imagine not being short in 2022

Man, don't ever anticipate the market. I was waiting to enter a short position because there were a few nice setups, but oh well.

Sanrith Descartes said:

To the moon

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If we really do get 50 basis points today and Powell doesn't decide to do his foot in mouth shit, we could be in for a monster day. Although I do wonder if we aren't muted this morning until the Fed meeting in anticipation.

Gravel said:

Sold the first $20k out of our retirement (although technically this is from our taxable). Really hard to time this shit. I missed the 4100 last week and I didn't want to leave all of it up to chance with the announcements this week.

Still have a bit more to do, and maybe some traditional to Roth conversion to do. So hoping for a Santa rally still.

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Well that was a mistake. Holy shit at this open.

No regrats though.

Sanrith Descartes said:

Folks are already estimating the odds of a 25 bp raise instead of a 50.

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Well that's just stupid. I'd say the chance of 75 is higher than 25, as Powell hasn't actually indicated any tapering. Everyone has just been assuming so.

Mist said:

You can't go short forever.

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Sure, nobody said anything about forever.

Its all good fun shit talking bulls vs bears but one side has had more wins than the other this year...

I'm happy for yall, everybody's gotta eat

Gravel said:

Well that's just stupid. If say the chance of 75 is higher than 25, as Powell hasn't actually indicated any tapering. Everyone has just been assuming so.

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This. Its absolutely bizarre to me that the entire investing community has decided we're pivoting, when Powell never said that.

The man has had one rule all year: no surprises. He says what hes gonna do then does it. But everybody decided this month its gonna be different. They may be right, we will see, but it makes no goddam sense to come to that conclusion.

Aldarion said:

This. Its absolutely bizarre to me that the entire investing community has decided we're pivoting, when Powell never said that.

The man has had one rule all year: no surprises. He says what hes gonna do then does it. But everybody decided this month its gonna be different. They may be right, we will see, but it makes no goddam sense to come to that conclusion.

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You do realize that Powell's last speech was quite dovish and he quite literally said the words "could pause as soon as next month [December]".

People aren't making things up, they are taking his words verbatim.

“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting,” Mr. Powell said, referencing the Dec. 13-14 gathering.

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Too many people trading (emotional) expectations vs what the price action is right in front of them.

Aldarion

While he doesn't exactly say "pause", it was his first talk of letting the foot off the gas and acknowledging that there is a lag in the effect of the hikes they have already done. Markets are taking that as we are far closer to terminal rates vs where we have been all year long. People are trying to position ahead of that. With Powell's last words, and CPI down on every metric this print, it should be absolutely no surprise whatsoever we shot up here.