Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I'm not saying they can't do it, just wanted to say fuck em.
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
I'm not saying they can't do it, just wanted to say fuck em.
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,535
- 107,628
Blazin
Creative Title
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I have 1800 posts in this thread, very few of them would fall into either category under any empirical analysis . Though this post by you does seem to land on category 2 rather poignantly .
Stop picking teams it's not a sport.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Trading update. so we are still trading above 200d I have not entered equity positions (yet) I have however pulled strikes up on put sales. Today's expiring puts where at SPY 400 and QQQ 390. I'm in the process of rolling them right now. I'm still trending bearish but forcing myself to take more risk acknowledging the bullish trend developments. Just because we have having a pullback, which was inevitable, does not mean the market is going to shit the bed. I'm watching the dollar and HYG/JNK rather closely. I'm looking for credit spreads to widen, I'm looking for the VIX to get on top of it's 50d for the bearish case to strengthen.
Market has some room here to consolidate at a lower level and stay in a bullish configuration above 200d which still hasn't turned up. Some talking about golden cross and imo a proper golden cross requires a positive slope on the 200d we are close but not their yet. Mood can change quickly and I still think we are in a dangerous pivot area so I'm only selling options a week out at a time.
Bullish Pts
- IWM, /ES, EEM, DIA all good looking charts consolidating above moving averages
- muted vix
- credit spreads remain tight
Bearish Pts
- TLT chart looks like a clear rejection off the 200d and if it doesn't bounce soon could lose ground rapidly (This would be bad for Tech)
- dollar moving up since Feb 1 (headwind to S&P earnings)
- steapening yield curve inversion
Bullish if indexes hold above the 200d preferably above the 50d
Bearish if BTC losses 20k
Bearish if growth starts lagging value
The strength of the rally has put a lot of traders on edge don't let some red overwhelm your outlook make sure you are looking at the big picture and not too hyperfocused on a day or two. If cracks are forming pay attention to the weight of the evidence.
Market has some room here to consolidate at a lower level and stay in a bullish configuration above 200d which still hasn't turned up. Some talking about golden cross and imo a proper golden cross requires a positive slope on the 200d we are close but not their yet. Mood can change quickly and I still think we are in a dangerous pivot area so I'm only selling options a week out at a time.
Bullish Pts
- IWM, /ES, EEM, DIA all good looking charts consolidating above moving averages
- muted vix
- credit spreads remain tight
Bearish Pts
- TLT chart looks like a clear rejection off the 200d and if it doesn't bounce soon could lose ground rapidly (This would be bad for Tech)
- dollar moving up since Feb 1 (headwind to S&P earnings)
- steapening yield curve inversion
Bullish if indexes hold above the 200d preferably above the 50d
Bearish if BTC losses 20k
Bearish if growth starts lagging value
The strength of the rally has put a lot of traders on edge don't let some red overwhelm your outlook make sure you are looking at the big picture and not too hyperfocused on a day or two. If cracks are forming pay attention to the weight of the evidence.
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
Stock Pals VP of Shit Stocks
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I've recounted some pretty big mistakes in my past, including investing in some serious shit stocks. There is no successful investor who doesn't have a rap sheet of pretty big fuck ups. It's what you do with that experience moving forward that matters. Every decision should be made weighing current evidence and experience looking forward. If you learn that an investment was a mistake holding it into the future is not productive. Everyday we are making a decision anew to either keep the course or adjust. Learning when to take your lumps and move on is an absolute requirement for future success, that has nothing to do with "what if what I'm holding comes back?" line of thinking. That is still hoping bad decisions be rewarded going forward to undo your "fucktarded" instead of undoing fucktarded by making better decisions.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Curious about this. I watch the VIX and have been feeling like its movements are sort of being detached from the markets or at least not nearly as strong as they used to be.
Blazin
Creative Title
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I believe it to be relevant enough to watch but not relevant to overly focus on. It does seem to be suppressed compared to investor anxiety. 0 day options are skewing various metrics especially put/call ratios. We are no longer making an apples to apples comparison on some historical data when looking at current data because of these structural changes.
Watching for volatility levels on treasuries is becoming increasingly important to help give a clearer picture of fear levels.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Mogs, it seems like you are stuck in a very binary concept of thinking. The secret to success (in all things) is being able to learn and innovate. Example:
I have some long positions that I was/am quite underwater in. Since they weren't full positions I dollar cost averaged down at various levels and filled them out. As some of these stocks have recovered significantly I have been selling of lots that I bought at the lows and banking those significant profits. I still hold the core positions and its still underwater. But while selling the lower cost lots drives my cost basis back up, my overall dollars invested goes back down. The upside is I have banked cash and its now off the table in case of a reversal. If we continue to recover, my existing lots still improve. edit: I sort of treat this as a trade within a trade.
Example: I have a half position in TSLA at $238. While it was languishing around $100 I dollar cost averaged and increased to just under a full position. When it broke $200 I offloaded all those shares I DCA'd at about 100% profits. My cost basis is now back to $238, but my invested dollars are back down to a half position and I was able to put real profit dollars in the bank. If you think about it, all those profit dollars effectively have lowered my actual cost basis in my remaining shares due to a lower dollar investment risk.
The point of this is me telling you to start thinking creatively and look for ways to "make alpha" and not just ride your losers hoping to be saved. Evolve or die.
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Furry
WoW Office
- 19,680
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I put most my money in the s&p and generally leave it there. I like to minimize the amount of money I set on fire.
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Burns
Avatar of War Slayer
- 6,229
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If only Carl Icahn would have thought about that on his Herbalife play he might have successfully taken down the whole company! What's a $7 mil commercial when you stand to make over a billion.
Didn't Elon get away with numerous stock price manipulations? So I guess turn about is fair play.
Ranak
Molten Core Raider
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My PLTR shares finally having a happy day. I'm sure it won't last, but nice for a day.
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
Stock Pals VP of Shit Stocks
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