Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2023

Blazin said:
Govt normally does too much, not too little. Shareholders NEED to be whipped out. Unless people are currently robbing the coffers which I don't see how with govt already taking over people are going to get their money the question is how long does that take? I would think they are going to move quickly and try to resolve by end of next week. I think the powers that be like to flaunt their power in these type situations. Compared to FED intervention with COVID this is such a nothing burger we really need some other saying than nothing burger, a drop in the ocean. The Fed has a 6T balance sheet this is a rounding error.

The need for speed I believe comes from all the startups who have all their cash tied up and they need to make payroll next week. The super rich mega investors can probably survive a while.

There are a shitload of rumors of some ultra wealthy having lots of money in there. No proof of true. But if it is true I expect lots of phone calls and lobbying DC for "exemptions" to the 250k limit. This part will be interesting to watch since I believe it would take Congress to adjust that 250k hardcap.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2023

ShakyJake said:
A YouTuber I watch daily, who I have a lot of respect for and really don't believe he's blowing smoke up your ass, has suggested that the best option trading strategy is a straddle but you do it ITM and with a year of time. That's expensive as hell though, doing that with an index like QQQ or SPY. But the odds of either of these just trading sideways for a whole year is highly unlikely.

What I'm curious about is if one can use technical analysis to determine when the best time to enter a straddle position. For example, some of these bank stocks right now --and I might try this with WFC -- it's extremely beaten up and is due for a snap back more than likely, OR more downside. you don't know. As long as the IV isn't crazy high on the CALL or PUT, this seems like it would be a no-lose scenario.

I will let someone else answer. I stick to zero or near zero day staddle/strangles. I have no experience with long dated plays like this.

Mist · Mar 11, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
I believe @Gravel is referring to calls for the gubmint to make whole "all" accounts and not just to the cap of $250k. And yes there are already of lot of rich people calling for the other rich people who chose to put millions into accounts that aren't insured to be covered because they are above the cap.

But like Ackman said, the alternative is that nobody, and more importantly, no company, ever deposits any money above the cap into any bank that's not deemed "too-big-to-fail", which would basically give a government-sanctioned monopoly to a tiny handful of banks.

Should everyone be made 100% whole? Absolutely not, but as long saleable assets exist, depositors should all be first in line to get paid as large of a percentage of their deposits as possible.

Blazin · Mar 11, 2023

ShakyJake said:
A YouTuber I watch daily, who I have a lot of respect for and really don't believe he's blowing smoke up your ass, has suggested that the best option trading strategy is a straddle but you do it ITM and with a year of time. That's expensive as hell though, doing that with an index like QQQ or SPY. But the odds of either of these just trading sideways for a whole year is highly unlikely.

What I'm curious about is if one can use technical analysis to determine when the best time to enter a straddle position. For example, some of these bank stocks right now --and I might try this with WFC -- it's extremely beaten up and is due for a snap back more than likely, OR more downside. you don't know. As long as the IV isn't crazy high on the CALL or PUT, this seems like it would be a no-lose scenario.

Must be some confusion because a straddle is the opposite of what you're saying. It only profits from large moves not the lack of movement. You need the underlining to move more than premium paid.

As far as when to enter a straddle you would want to enter when you believe the volatility is lower than it should be.

Mist · Mar 11, 2023

Okay, I misunderstood spread vs straddle too.

Khane · Mar 11, 2023

Amazing. Going from not being smart or capable enough to find himself a real career to turning his broke bank account into retirement status trading derivatives in three years. Surely he isn't just copy pasta wall street bets memoirs.

Mist · Mar 11, 2023

Khane said:
Amazing. Going from not being smart or capable enough to find himself a real career to turning his broke bank account into retirement status trading derivatives in three years. Surely he isn't just copy pasta wall street bets memoirs.

Well no, he got extremely lucky during the whole GME thing, before it ever was news, and that part I know is true.

Blazin · Mar 11, 2023

Mist said:
20% of what's reserved in margin for the spread, from what I understand. That is the point at which I start getting lost so maybe it's all bullshit but this guy went from nearly broke, surviving off a shitty dog-walking business to having nearly infinite money and effectively retired in the past 3 years so idk. He pretty much just does these KO calendar spreads and SPY puts and has just made unreal money.

LIttle info being given but from what I see there is no way to make it big given the strategy. I make my living off theta and have for a long time now. But it is a tortoise. With proper info can show all sorts of fancy options trades collecting some net premium for some amount of risk. But there is no getting one over on the system. SOmetimes people collect premium without understanding their outside tail risk, and then at some point they learn and they learn quickly what the premium was being paid for.

Options can seem like magic, we could sit at my PC and I could show you how to print money into my account seemingly from nothing collecting premium. It's all magic until you wrap your head around standard deviation and tail risk.

Khane · Mar 11, 2023

Mist said:
Well no, he got extremely lucky during the whole GME thing, before it ever was news, and that part I know is true.

It's far more believable to think someone with no experience had a lucky trade or two that set them up than to believe some novice has had steady success creating win after win over an extended period of time trading derivatives

Blazin · Mar 11, 2023

Mist said:
Well no, he got extremely lucky during the whole GME thing, before it ever was news, and that part I know is true.

So now we went from diligent options premium collecting to lucky strikes on GME as how the money was made?

Mist · Mar 11, 2023

Blazin said:
So now we went from diligent options premium collecting to lucky strikes on GME as how the money was made?

No, that's how the initial money was made to start doing this.

Zzen · Mar 11, 2023

Glad to see that the SVB meltdown has awoken Lord

Blazin from his slumber.

I’ll just keep posting fintwit memes with my boy

Edaw

Big Phoenix · Mar 11, 2023

Khane said:
Amazing. Going from not being smart or capable enough to find himself a real career to turning his broke bank account into retirement status trading derivatives in three years. Surely he isn't just copy pasta wall street bets memoirs.

I dont have enough points to jones react to this.