Investing General Discussion

I bought CCL and RCL a little early, but dollar cost averaged on the way down, feeling those nicely now. Either way.....

Gurgeh said:

August / September could be bad, but fuck, who knows at this point.

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Remember, if we go up 15-20% and then have a 5-10% pullback in the fall its all good.

Ravishing said:

I still remember this.

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To be fair, I would most assuredly be buying at Dow 12k too.

Ravishing said:

Trump just said "stimulus" and everything jumped another couple %

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I am single digits down in XOM. Single digits!!!

UNH hit a 52 week high earlier this week, pulled back like 5% and just made a newer 52 week high today.

AMD vexes me greatly.

Seriously man NASDAQ at ATH, Nvidia up, Intel up and AMD down. The fuck is this? Shits been trading side ways around $53 for two weeks now.

As the market continues to recover dont be surprised if we begin to see a return to fundemental analysis. NVDA and INTC both sport EPS in excess of $5. AMD EPS is $0.41.

Khane said:

Lol my Vanguard homepage is mysteriously non-functional. It won't show me any of my account info and will not let me transact. Coincidental timing!

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Chinese hackers cleaned you out.

Ps.. oil about to hit $40 a barrel.

Locnar said:

I'm wondering about the other side of all this, the exit. Tell me if this sounds reasonable because i've never had to deal with this before. Been a index buy and hold forever person before.

Look at the 52 week high for what I got, then calculate what is 80 percent of that.
Calculate what would be a %150 gain on the particular holdering.

Greater of the two = my price to sell half of the holding.

Is this a good setup or does it sound too greedy or too conservative or what.

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The calculations are arbitrary (80% for instance). Try a site like Marketwatch for instance. Use it to find analysts estimates on the stocks. Then use the 52 week high. Growth us currently difficult to calculate with all the unknowns so use those two numbers as estimates on where you see the stock by the end of the year.

Example for the above post.
MSFT 52 high is 190.70
Analysts price target is 199.50
Current price is 186.17
That is an estimated upside of about 7% from here to the end of the year. With dividends about 8%.
That sounds reasonable to me.

Analysts aren't always right, but they do give a consensus for you to look at. Especially for heavily covered stocks with lots of analysts to even out the outliers.

Remember looking forward isnt looking backward. What we did the last couple of months in terms of appreciation in price isn't normal. An average year for the S&P500 is about 10%.

From today to the end of the year if my overall gain is 10-15% I am going to be very happy.