Investing General Discussion

Mist · Nov 19, 2023

Big Phoenix said:
Some really fucky shit going on here.

Annie Altman, OpenAI CEO's Sister, Tweets About Sexual Abuse Suffered From 'Brother' Sam Altman

Trigger warning: sexual abuse In a series of tweets, Annie Altman, the sister of OpenAI chief Sam Altman, has relayed

thedeepdive.ca

Old fucking news.

Mist · Nov 19, 2023

Flobee said:
The dude responsible for worldcoin was never going to be a good guy. That project is legitimately evil. I suspect everything else he does will be awful as well

Me and

Flobee in 100% agreement, things have gotta be fucking fucked.

We're doomed.

Big Phoenix · Nov 19, 2023

Mist said:
Old fucking news.

So theyve been trying to oust him and their previous attempt failed.

Mist · Nov 19, 2023

Big Phoenix said:
So theyve been trying to oust him and their previous attempt failed.

Burns · Nov 19, 2023

Bloomberg printing this rumor today, so it may have some kind of legs. That rumor is that he was trying to start a chip company to rival NVidia:

2023-11-19 22.18.19 www.bloomberg.com f39fa9535926.png

First 3 paragraphs:

2023-11-19 22.20.33 www.bloomberg.com fecec820ff51.png

Altman Sought Billions For Chip Venture Before OpenAI Ouster

In the weeks leading up to his shocking ouster from OpenAI, Sam Altman was actively working to raise billions from some of the world’s largest investors for a new chip venture, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Captain Suave · Nov 20, 2023

Board stands firm and Altman is still out. Murati is out now, replaced as interim CEO by Emmett Shear, founder of Twitch. Such a great choice. I know when I need real guidance on something I go right to fucking Twitch...

Altman will not return as CEO of OpenAI - The Information

Sam Altman is discussing a possible return even as he considers launching a new AI venture. His firing angered current and former employees, and prompted worries over an upcoming $86 billion share sale.

www.reuters.com

Mist · Nov 20, 2023

Captain Suave said:
Board stands firm and Altman is still out. Murati is out now, replaced as interim CEO by Emmett Shear, founder of Twitch. Such a great choice. I know when I need real guidance on something I go right to fucking Twitch...

Altman will not return as CEO of OpenAI - The Information

Sam Altman is discussing a possible return even as he considers launching a new AI venture. His firing angered current and former employees, and prompted worries over an upcoming $86 billion share sale.

www.reuters.com

Ousted OpenAI head Sam Altman to lead Microsoft's new AI team

Former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team, according to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

www.cnbc.com

OpenAI pivoting to Thot GPTs, confirmed?

The drama continues!

Palum · Nov 20, 2023

Boy that sure is one way to convert a not for profit into a for profit company

Mist · Nov 20, 2023

Also, Meta trying to bury this in the shuffle:

Facebook-parent Meta breaks up its Responsible AI team

Most members of the RAI team have been reassigned to the company's Generative AI product division.

www.cnbc.com

So the people handing out open source models to the world has no AI safety team anymore. Cool.

Humanity, going just great.

OH SHIT, new news:

Shit moves fast.

Aldarion · Nov 20, 2023

Werent those "safety" teams primarily responsible for making sure LLMs dont say anything that goes against woke orthodoxy?

Mist · Nov 20, 2023

Aldarion said:
Werent those "safety" teams primarily responsible for making sure LLMs dont say anything that goes against woke orthodoxy?

Only in the minds of crazy people obsessed with anti-woke. They're mostly to make sure they're not used as cyberweapons. I already saw one demo last week that could automatically generate exploit payloads for over a decade's worth of legacy vulnerabilities that are often found on unpatched internet-facing systems. And even if they're not internet-facing, once inside a network using some other method, boom.

Aldarion · Nov 20, 2023

"mostly" is doing a hell of a heavy lift in that sentence. So you are not disputing that they were there to root out Thought Crime, just saying they were "mostly" responsible for other stuff?

Mist · Nov 20, 2023

Aldarion said:
"mostly" is doing a hell of a heavy lift in that sentence. So you are not disputing that they were there to root out Thought Crime, just saying they were "mostly" responsible for other stuff?

These are products, mainly built for inclusion in deployable enterprise applications. No one wants customer-facing chatbot that starts yelling "HITLER WAS RIGHT" in the middle of talking about returning the menorah grandma bought from Homegoods. It's not "woke", it's basic business functionality. Given the history of internet-facing bots, this is a serious business risk.

Another thing the safety teams do is make sure that LLMs don't leak internal data and/or proprietary data, or their initial prompts, during interactions.

Gravel · Nov 20, 2023

C'mon Santa rally to 4876!

Palum · Nov 20, 2023

Is it known if MS has some sort of like right of first refusal on OpenAI assets? Seems like take all the employees, tank the company, buy it at discount providing you can keep competitors out?

Mist · Nov 20, 2023

Palum said:
Is it known if MS has some sort of like right of first refusal on OpenAI assets? Seems like take all the employees, tank the company, buy it at discount providing you can keep competitors out?

They already have the model weights for the models that have already been trained. They probably have the training sets too.

There's very little other assets they might even want.

The code that generates new foundational models from a training set is actually quite small, laughably small compared to something like Windows. The key employees could bang it out in an afternoon over a few pizzas.

Palum · Nov 20, 2023

Mist said:
They already have the model weights for the models that have already been trained. They probably have the training sets too.

There's very little other assets they might even want.

The code that generates new foundational models from a training set is actually quite small, laughably small compared to something like Windows. The key employees could bang it out in an afternoon over a few pizzas.

Yes but it's all under license right so they would want to acquire it so their competitors don't get the same.

Mist · Nov 20, 2023

Palum said:
Yes but it's all under license right so they would want to acquire it so their competitors don't get the same.

Sure, not sure their competitors want 2-year-old model weights at this point, but some might. The pruned training sets are probably valuable, but not billions of dollars valuable.

for anyone that wants to read what the former Twitch CEO has to say about this.

My outside read on all of this is that the technology, in its current state, is already near-maxed out, and really only good for making consumer products and enterprise subscription assistant thingies. GPT5 is going to cost a lot to train and not be that much better than GPT4. All signs point to GPTs being unable to generalize outside of their training sets, aka unable to think of things humans haven't thought of before. It will be productized in a lot of ways, but not world-changing ones.

Zog · Nov 20, 2023

Mist said:
Sure, not sure their competitors want 2-year-old model weights at this point, but some might. The pruned training sets are probably valuable, but not billions of dollars valuable.

for anyone that wants to read what the former Twitch CEO has to say about this.

My outside read on all of this is that the technology, in its current state, is already near-maxed out, and really only good for making consumer products and enterprise subscription assistant thingies. GPT5 is going to cost a lot to train and not be that much better than GPT4. All signs point to GPTs being unable to generalize outside of their training sets, aka unable to think of things humans haven't thought of before. It will be productized in a lot of ways, but not world-changing ones.

Of course, just a more robust script for NPC dialogue. Of course the negatives far outweigh the positives IMO, yes you can save money on labor for customer service, to an extent, I'm sure the "good" scripts won't be cheap and probably require annual licensing but the majority of people buying your shit won't have jobs anymore.

It's an awful lot like the current theory on our supply chains, zero inventory stock to save money with same day or next day delivery. If anything fucks up the entire model collapses and you can't sell anything.

Unfortunately for the market AI is the only current thing to look forward to for "growth."

Tuco · Nov 20, 2023

Mist said:
Sure, not sure their competitors want 2-year-old model weights at this point, but some might. The pruned training sets are probably valuable, but not billions of dollars valuable.

for anyone that wants to read what the former Twitch CEO has to say about this.

My outside read on all of this is that the technology, in its current state, is already near-maxed out, and really only good for making consumer products and enterprise subscription assistant thingies. GPT5 is going to cost a lot to train and not be that much better than GPT4. All signs point to GPTs being unable to generalize outside of their training sets, aka unable to think of things humans haven't thought of before. It will be productized in a lot of ways, but not world-changing ones.

Feels like anyone willing to take this offer isn't a good fit. Like asking who wants to be the next captain while the ship is on fire and sinking.

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