Arden
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Furry
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The fund not having the coins that it's investors bought. Either from loss via theft or something similar of the coins/keys/systems which hold that info would be the funnest version.
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Flobee
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Very likely, just a matter of time. That being said I'm willing to hold in in my 401k for now.
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Arden
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I'd say there's no way a trusted and storied company like Blackrock or Fidelity would be incompetent enough to let something like that happen, but I would have also laughed if you told me the official SEC twitter account wasn't 2FA and would be hacked and announce the ETF approval a day early, so...
But like Flobee, I'm certainly willing to take the risk for now. Especially with Fidelity since they are doing self-custody.
I've got my concerns about the share price for the ETFs starting out super high due to demand and then crashing, kind of like Coinbase shares did it went public. But my understanding (and you big brain types can certainly correct me if I'm wrong) is that an ETF like this has to pretty much track the price of BTC- so as long as BTC keeps going up, the ETFs keep going up.
And I feel pretty good about BTC going up. I'm certainly no expert, but I read that the SEC required the ETFs to be "cash creation," which means that the ETFs must buy BTC with cash to match all shares purchased. Based on my research there seems like is a huge amount of institutional money waiting to buy into the ETFs. This would mean lots and lots of buy pressure on BTC. This, combined with the scarcity and deflationary nature of the asset, seems like the perfect storm for explosive growth. But, again, I'm no expert and would love for someone to tell me all the reasons I'm wrong.
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So i am curious if the crypto ETFs will be drawing funds out of equities to a point that it actually makes a difference.
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Blazin
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no chance, we might see 2-3B into the ETFs today and the vast vast majority of that will come from outflows from greyscale which holds 28B alone. The bitcoin market is just under a Trillion these ETFs are marginal at best. I think some of the theories people have are not really looking at size the right way.
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Blazin
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Would love to see a 5% SPY pullback to the 450s , would likely be a buyer with a hold into the summer. We are quite aways from that since bears are fucking pussies with no conviction, need to break 4700 on SPX to even get something going.
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Blazin
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It's a hedge against my base assumption that bitcoin is rat poison.
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Flobee
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Just a reminder that if you're going to have BTC exposure you should be ready for big drawdowns. If there is a liquidity event for the markets as a whole BTC is going to go down first, and the by the largest % most likely. I wouldn't buy any more than you're willing to hold for at least a year from this point. I only say a year because we're so close to the halving I expect it to perform well over the next 12-18 months. Generally its 4+ year hold. My 2c
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Blazin
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Concur and would only add, I don't think anyone should be buying with less than a 5yr hold. This is speculation, short term speculation is a losing game. For me it, it will either work and it would be idiotic to ever sell. Selling bitcoin means it's base case for owning it isn't true why else would you want to move the asset back into the dollar. Unlike crypto hypocrits who don't even understand their own theories, I could care less what it trades for against the dollar, it's either something I need to own to store value or it isn't. I don't like crypto but you know what I do know? The dollar is going to be devalued in the future against current levels, I'd stake my life on it, I believe that so thoroughly. Now is bitcoin a non performing asset a better place for capital than successful profitable corporations? That is going to be hard to measure while we are still in the "adoption" phase. The easy money will end at some point and the true test will begin, today may mark the first day of the beginning of that process to determine if Apple or Microsoft over an extended period will increase value more than bitcoin.
The trillion dollar market caps are a sign that mega corps are acting as a good hedge against declining dollar purchasing power, holding non performing assets is my real issue with this. The old men against this aren't because they just can't see how awesome this new super dooper idea is, it's that great investors learn that non performing assets are a suckers bet over very long periods. I am trying to keep an open mind how this can evolve and how dynamics may be in place for an adoption process that could take several decades and the time to sell something like bitcoin could come quite a distance from here both in dollar delineated value and in time.
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BTC will never be adopted as everyday financial infrastructure. It will never be liquid enough. It can be used for some things, like as a replacement for SWIFT, but I'd be willing to bet a different token is eventually adopted for that.
This leaves BTC as mostly just digital gold. That could be a strong hedge if the US starts effectively wholesale printing money again and/or dropping rates massively, a likely outcome of a Trump victory. (Don't take this as a political post, but politics does inherently impact the Fed and therefore the dollar.)
Blazin
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This whole issue is so important to understand, as so many people lack perspective. They say stupid shit like "can the market really keep going up here?" and they don't even think in their head that they are taking a position counter to the devaluing of the dollar, which of course if you asked them that directly they would without hesitation say, "oh yeah the dollar is fucked" yet they can't make the connection between that idea and QQQ going higher...much higher.
MSFT doesn't need to perform 100% better to add another 3 trillion to it's value, the US govt just needs to keep spending. We look at a chart of MSFT and call it "microsoft's performance" but really we are just looking at the dollars performance up side down.
Correct and hundreds of years of history shows us that for profit corporations in a capitalistic system will outperform "stores of value" . That is what I mean by, once the adoption phase is over bitcoin will likely simply track the inflation of the dollar or maybe inflation of all major currencies aggregated in some manner. So it doesn't "create wealth" but it may provide protection for idle money against inflation. But should we really have a bunch of idle assets? We already have excellent hedges against inflation in the form of stocks and real estate, they have done an excellent job in this regard. The thing that hasn't worked is holding the dollar and it's unlikely to work int he future. So sure if you are a person who only wants to stuff money in the mattress I would tell that person buy gold/silver and bitcoin then.
MSFT doesn't need to perform 100% better to add another 3 trillion to it's value, the US govt just needs to keep spending. We look at a chart of MSFT and call it "microsoft's performance" but really we are just looking at the dollars performance up side down.
Correct and hundreds of years of history shows us that for profit corporations in a capitalistic system will outperform "stores of value" . That is what I mean by, once the adoption phase is over bitcoin will likely simply track the inflation of the dollar or maybe inflation of all major currencies aggregated in some manner. So it doesn't "create wealth" but it may provide protection for idle money against inflation. But should we really have a bunch of idle assets? We already have excellent hedges against inflation in the form of stocks and real estate, they have done an excellent job in this regard. The thing that hasn't worked is holding the dollar and it's unlikely to work int he future. So sure if you are a person who only wants to stuff money in the mattress I would tell that person buy gold/silver and bitcoin then.
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Wrote the AAPL 175 strike put expiring on 1/26 (a few days before earnings). 45 cent premium. Just a single contract. My thought process is this. If I get assigned I have the shares ahead of earnings and can hold through and throw the dice. IV is low so its just a run out the clock game. Main reason for the single contract is portfolio weight since my main holding is/was the S&P. Not a lot of premium with a single contract but I am getting a little bored sitting on the sidelines and if I am going to gamble for fun I gamble with AAPL or MSFT.