Investing General Discussion

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
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For those still wondering what happened at 3pm, Gavin Newsome shut down bars, restaurants and churches in California again. The algos were displeased. Take solace in that some sectors didn't get crushed so it wasn't a wholesale rout.

If you have cash available be ready for tomorrow. California reclosing combined with a bad earnings report from the banks and DAL tomorrow could send us back over the edge. I dont think a down 5% day will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if it did. Just like a plus 3% day tomorrow wouldn't surprise me. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some "vaccine news" get released between now and 9am.

If CA does this then Texas and other states are likely to follow. Luckily Texas already had bars and restaurants closed again so I am sure the gyms and shit will be next.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Big Banks and DAL reported.
JPM beat top and bottom. Certain segments of their business actually exceeded last year same quarter. 1st move up and a close above $100 moves it back above the 32% retracement.
WFC missed too and bottom. Getting crushed.
C beat on earnings but missed on revenue. 1st move up.

Jamie Diamond described JPM's "fortress balance sheet" as the reason it is best suited to handle the current conditions and predicts doubke digit unemployment into next year.


DAL beat on revenue but missed earnings. 1st move down. Only down 1%. Dont be surprised if this turns around and it goes positive. It cut its daily cash burn 70% to 27 million a day and has 15.7 billion in liquidity. At current cash burn it has enough liquidity for 18 months which is substantial. Their balance sheet pre-Coronachan, like JPM, was the strongest of their peers and it shows now.

Balance sheets are king. Unless your name is TSLA. 😀
 
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Hateyou

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Big Banks and DAL reported.
JPM beat top and bottom. Certain segments of their business actually exceeded last year same quarter. 1st move up and a close above $100 moves it back above the 32% retracement.
WFC missed too and bottom. Getting crushed.
C beat on earnings but missed on revenue. 1st move up.

Jamie Diamond described JPM's "fortress balance sheet" as the reason it is best suited to handle the current conditions and predicts doubke digit unemployment into next year.


DAL beat on revenue but missed earnings. 1st move down. Only down 1%. Dont be surprised if this turns around and it goes positive. It cut its daily cash burn 70% to 27 million a day and has 15.7 billion in liquidity. At current cash burn it has enough liquidity for 18 months which is substantial. Their balance sheet pre-Coronachan, like JPM, was the strongest of their peers and it shows now.

Balance sheets are king. Unless your name is TSLA. 😀

Nice, I bought some more JPM on their recent dip. Started that one from your advice, so thanks. I’ll buy you a beer if you’re ever in Indy. (I’m never going to nyc again, sorry)
 
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Hateyou

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A coworker randomly approached me at work this morning asking if I did Robinhood. Told him no, Fidelity, but I do trade. He then told me he got Robinhood, borrowed from his 401k (His family has money to where he doesn’t even really need to work, I think he did this so his wife wouldn’t see the money disappear) and started buying stocks with the strategy of stocks that are under $1. One he bought on the way up that went from $1 to $20 (he ended up losing money cause he got in way too high) but to him that was how you got rich on trading or something. He was telling me he finally sold everything to get out cause it was making his emotions crazy. He said he saw the margin trading and how easy it was but didn’t try it, luckily. He got his 401k all paid back and luckily only ended up with an actual loss of $700, but he feels sick about it. I think part of that is his wife does their taxes and she would see it. He seems relieved it was a loss and just won’t report it lol.

I told him he should feel very grateful it was only $700 and delete Robinhood. He’s going to.

That was my first experience talking to someone who Robinhooded and lost, and he was a wreck telling me about it. I don’t know the guy very well but that’s the most emotion I’ve ever seen out of him. I got a sick feeling in my stomach when he started telling me what he was doing, I was expecting a life savings loss story.
 
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Furry

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I told him he should feel very grateful it was only $700 and delete Robinhood. He’s going to.

Guy I work bought a bunch of CHKAQ when it was rallying at like 50$ and was showing us pictures of it at 70 on his robinhood account saying how it was gonna make him rich. Since that day haven't heard a peep about robinhood.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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A coworker randomly approached me at work this morning asking if I did Robinhood. Told him no, Fidelity, but I do trade. He then told me he got Robinhood, borrowed from his 401k (His family has money to where he doesn’t even really need to work, I think he did this so his wife wouldn’t see the money disappear) and started buying stocks with the strategy of stocks that are under $1. One he bought on the way up that went from $1 to $20 (he ended up losing money cause he got in way too high) but to him that was how you got rich on trading or something. He was telling me he finally sold everything to get out cause it was making his emotions crazy. He said he saw the margin trading and how easy it was but didn’t try it, luckily. He got his 401k all paid back and luckily only ended up with an actual loss of $700, but he feels sick about it. I think part of that is his wife does their taxes and she would see it. He seems relieved it was a loss and just won’t report it lol.

I told him he should feel very grateful it was only $700 and delete Robinhood. He’s going to.

That was my first experience talking to someone who Robinhooded and lost, and he was a wreck telling me about it. I don’t know the guy very well but that’s the most emotion I’ve ever seen out of him. I got a sick feeling in my stomach when he started telling me what he was doing, I was expecting a life savings loss story.
Something that doesn't get discussed ever to the Robinhooders is the stress involved in trading (vs investing). There is a reason Wallstreeters are coke addicted alcoholics (generalizing I know). The stress is insane. I consider myself well versed and generally unemotional about it and there are still days that get to me and I have to just walk away otherwise I will start making moves based on emotion. The kids thinking this is just WoW on steroids are getting a rude awakening. Im surprised there haven't been more suicides to be honest.

I sometimes equate the market to online games in this respect... you can do everything right and still get fucked by the RNG. Analyze every fundemental perfectly and then... someone gets cancer and blames it on baby power. We are trading in unprecedented times right now in terms of variables that are just really hard to quantify.

And remember, you need a license to drive a car but you dont need anything to borrow a million dollars on margin and gamble on Robinhood.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Looks like the Tesla short squeeze is over?
I'm not sure. But I think the big issue was inflation popping up this morning. I dont know why it surprised anyone. Gas prices had to increase since May numbers were basically free plus taxes. And food had to increase because of the meat producers being shut down. And yet... oh noes inflation... sell, sell, sell!! I think we may see some whacky recovery by the end of the day because the selling wasn't really driven by anything that shouldn't have been expected. The banks not getting ass ravaged on their financials is also a positive sign for the market as a whole. It tells me big tech is going to kill it on earnings when they report.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Also for snyone looking at long term buy and hold, LMT has been sliding for about 3 weeks. It bottomed around 340 the other day. Its in a shitty sector right now (aerospace) but it does so much more like weapons and space. Its balance sheet is rock solid (9 billion in EBITDA, only 12 billion in debt for a manufacturer, and almost 6 billion in free cash flow) and its biggest customer is the US govt. China got pissy this morning because they sold some Patriot missles systems to Taiwan but its worth a look for the long term at this price I think. I like it around 355 a share or less. And it pays just under a 3% dividend yield.

Ps.. i own it. Also do your own due diligence.
 

Hateyou

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Also for snyone looking at long term buy and hold, LMT has been sliding for about 3 weeks. It bottomed around 340 the other day. Its in a shitty sector right now (aerospace) but it does so much more like weapons and space. Its balance sheet is rock solid (9 billion in EBITDA, only 12 billion in debt for a manufacturer, and almost 6 billion in free cash flow) and its biggest customer is the US govt. China got pissy this morning because they sold some Patriot missles systems to Taiwan but its worth a look for the long term at this price I think. I like it around 355 a share or less. And it pays just under a 3% dividend yield.

Ps.. i own it. Also do your own due diligence.

I saw this pop up earlier. No idea what the implications are but thought I’d post since related.

 
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Sanrith Descartes

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I saw this pop up earlier. No idea what the implications are but thought I’d post since related.

Long story short, they don't break down revenue by country, but do 9% of sales in the Asia Pacific Rim. That being said I doubt they sell any military gear to China, but the Sikorski subdivision does have a helicopter unit that partners with a Chinese company in Shanghai. My guess that is their primary exposure.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I know a number of us are playing DAL. The price to watch is $26.56 today. Thats the 50 DMA. A close above it is a good sign with earnings out today. It has been testing it and failing to hold it today. If it can't close above it expect more bouncing around this level or possibly a drop down into the low 20's this week.

Also I sold out of my CAT position. It was around the highest level since black Monday and earnings are on the 31st and I am not hopeful they do well on earnings. If I am wrong I scooped over 30% profit off the table.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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For those playing at home the Nasdaq pulled a 3% swing today between the open, the plunge and the recovery.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I bought 200 shares at ~$15 each, so $3000 total.

The position dropped a lot in post market, but Im still up ~50%

View attachment 285151

I'm trying to dump it right now, I think this stock has mostly peaked at 30. I dont see this thing going to 40 or 50.
You still in EQ? I heard the patch today fucked everything up and the stock dropped 47%.

Seriously though shit got crushed today, dropped 47.25% and another 5% so far after the close.
 
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Loser Araysar

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You still in EQ? I heard the patch today fucked everything up and the stock dropped 47%.

Seriously though shit got crushed today, dropped 47.25% and another 5% so far after the close.

I couldn't close that EQ position in post market or pre market. By the time 9 am hit this morning, most of my gains got wiped out. Still made a couple hundred bucks but not the $3K if I sold at 15:55 yesterday. Just couldn't unload this fucker after 4 pm.

Not sure if there was just no buyers or I was doing something wrong. I never tried to unload a stock in post market. Valuable lesson for the future.

I took the money I made and threw it into Rigel this morning, another covid hype stock, made a few hundred bucks and bailed out before the markets closed.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I couldn't close that EQ position in post market or pre market. By the time 9 am hit this morning, most of my gains got wiped out. Still made a couple hundred bucks but not the $3K if I sold at 15:55 yesterday. Just couldn't unload this fucker after 4 pm.

Not sure if there was just no buyers or I was doing something wrong. I never tried to unload a stock in post market. Valuable lesson for the future.

I took the money I made and threw it into Rigel this morning, another covid hype stock, made a few hundred bucks and bailed out before the markets closed.
I'm not sure what platform you are using but most likely you need to have extended hours trading activated. I know from Fidelity you need to do it by voice and it has to be recorded with you saying you understand liquidity after hours sucks and you can get boned by the big bid/ask spreads.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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On deck tomorrow with earnings is GS, UNH, USB, PNC and a bunch of companies most folks won't care about.
 

Loser Araysar

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I'm using TD Ameritrade

I got some homework to do this week. I got lucky today, next time I could lose my ass
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Don't be surprised if the Chinese respond somehow and the markets get their panties in a bunch tomorrow.

 
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